Marit Bjørgen was again fastest at all splits in todays 10 km classic race in Davos. Along with Justyna Kowalczyk and Therese Johaug, Bjørgen was far ahead at all splits. Bjørgen took her first victory in Davos with this race – her 8th in a row(!) – and also her 40th World Cup victory.

In the above Splitsbrowser-screenshot (see also splitsbrowser from the race: Play with the results yourself) a flat line on a split means that an athlete is the fastest on a split. The steeper the line goes, the more an athlete looses on that split. Split 1 is at 2.0 km, split 2 at 5.0 km, split 3 at 7.0 km and finish at 10.0 km. Taking a look at the race profile, the first (and third) split is only uphill, whereas the second (and fourth) split is mostly flat/downhill.

Race profile from FIS-ski.com

To get some more insight into what happened for position 4 to 10, we compare with the best time on a split + 5% – that means that the curve is flat if an athlete has lost 5 percent to the winner – goes downwards if the time lost is more than 5% and upwards if the time lost is less than 5%. Bjørgen has really had a impressive speed – significantly more than 5% ahead all of these athletes to the first split (2 km). To the second split (2 km to 5 km), only Marianna Longa and Yulia Tschekaleva are less than 5% behind. For the third split (5 km to 7 km) only Ishida is less than 5% behind. For the last split (7 km to 10 km), Bjørgen has caught Kowalczyk and has full control over the race. She therefore decreased her speed, and all of these except Tschekaleva are within 5% of Bjørgen’s time for the split.

Note that the graph/splits is based on only athletes up to and including the red group as of now.

Links

Comparing to the predictions

Comparing the results to the 106 predictions over at WhoWins.WorldofXC.com, the victory of Marit Bjørgen was very expected – the same with the second spot of Justyna Kowalczyk. Saarinen performed approximately as expected – and Johaug somewhat better (at least her time was impressive!). Majdic was the big disappointment of the day for the ones setting up their Top 5 lists. Results from the predictions will be available after the mens race (see right column).

Split 1

1.	05:32		Marit BJOERGEN	NOR
2.	05:39	+00:06	Therese JOHAUG	NOR
3.	05:39	+00:07	Justyna KOWALCZYK	POL
4.	05:53	+00:20	Marte ELDEN	NOR
5.	05:53	+00:21	Aino Kaisa SAARINEN	FIN
6.	05:58	+00:26	Nicole FESSEL	GER
7.	05:58	+00:26	Stefanie BOEHLER	GER
8.	05:59	+00:27	Yulia TCHEKALEVA	RUS
9.	06:00	+00:27	Marianna LONGA	ITA
10.	06:00	+00:28	Valentina SHEVCHENKO	UKR
11.	06:02	+00:30	Masako ISHIDA	JPN

Split 2

1.	08:58		Marit BJOERGEN	NOR
2.	09:09	+00:11	Justyna KOWALCZYK	POL
3.	09:13	+00:15	Therese JOHAUG	NOR
4.	09:20	+00:22	Marianna LONGA	ITA
5.	09:23	+00:25	Yulia TCHEKALEVA	RUS
6.	09:28	+00:29	Aino Kaisa SAARINEN	FIN
7.	09:30	+00:32	Riitta-Liisa ROPONEN	FIN
8.	09:31	+00:33	Masako ISHIDA	JPN
9.	09:31	+00:33	Katrin ZELLER	GER
10.	09:32	+00:34	Nicole FESSEL	GER
11.	09:33	+00:35	Marte ELDEN	NOR

Split 3

1.	07:18		Marit BJOERGEN	NOR
2.	07:22	+00:05	Justyna KOWALCZYK	POL
3.	07:25	+00:07	Therese JOHAUG	NOR
4.	07:37	+00:19	Masako ISHIDA	JPN
5.	07:43	+00:26	Krista LAHTEENMAKI	FIN
6.	07:46	+00:29	Marte ELDEN	NOR
7.	07:48	+00:30	Aino Kaisa SAARINEN	FIN
8.	07:49	+00:32	Yulia TCHEKALEVA	RUS
9.	07:50	+00:33	Stefanie BOEHLER	GER
10.	07:53	+00:35	Katrin ZELLER	GER
11.	07:53	+00:35	Alena PROCHAZKOVA	SVK
12.	07:54	+00:36	Marianna LONGA	ITA

Split 4

1.	07:44		Marit BJOERGEN	NOR
2.	07:51	+00:07	Justyna KOWALCZYK	POL
3.	07:54	+00:11	Therese JOHAUG	NOR
4.	07:54	+00:11	Krista LAHTEENMAKI	FIN
5.	07:55	+00:12	Elena KOLOMINA	KAZ
6.	07:56	+00:13	Katrin ZELLER	GER
7.	07:57	+00:13	Alena PROCHAZKOVA	SVK
8.	07:58	+00:15	Marianna LONGA	ITA
9.	08:00	+00:17	Aino Kaisa SAARINEN	FIN
10.	08:01	+00:17	Svetlana MALAKHOVA-SHISHKINA	KAZ
11.	08:03	+00:19	Masako ISHIDA	JPN

Overall (unofficial results from live timing)

1.	29:32		Marit BJOERGEN	NOR
2.	30:01	+00:29	Justyna KOWALCZYK	POL
3.	30:11	+00:39	Therese JOHAUG	NOR
4.	31:09	+01:37	Aino Kaisa SAARINEN	FIN
5.	31:12	+01:40	Marianna LONGA	ITA
6.	31:13	+01:41	Masako ISHIDA	JPN
7.	31:17	+01:45	Marte ELDEN	NOR
8.	31:17	+01:45	Krista LAHTEENMAKI	FIN
9.	31:24	+01:53	Katrin ZELLER	GER
10.	31:27	+01:56	Yulia TCHEKALEVA	RUS
11.	31:31	+01:59	Alena PROCHAZKOVA	SVK
12.	31:34	+02:02	Riitta-Liisa ROPONEN	FIN
13.	31:44	+02:13	Elena KOLOMINA	KAZ
14.	31:46	+02:15	Stefanie BOEHLER	GER
15.	31:50	+02:18	Valentina SHEVCHENKO	UKR
16.	31:54	+02:23	Nicole FESSEL	GER
17.	32:01	+02:29	Svetlana MALAKHOVA-SHISHKINA	KAZ
18.	32:05	+02:33	Katerina SMUTNA	AUT
19.	32:08	+02:37	Riikka SARASOJA	FIN
20.	32:09	+02:38	Petra MAJDIC	SLO
21.	32:10	+02:38	Evi SACHENBACHER STEHLE	GER
22.	32:13	+02:41	Ingvild Flugstad OESTBERG	NOR
23.	32:16	+02:45	Marthe KRISTOFFERSEN	NOR
24.	32:17	+02:45	Anne KYLLOENEN	FIN
25.	32:23	+02:51	Alena SANNIKOVA	BLR
26.	32:26	+02:54	Lina ANDERSSON	SWE
27.	32:27	+02:56	Silvia RUPIL	ITA
28.	32:29	+02:58	Sara LINDBORG	SWE
29.	32:39	+03:07	Olga SCHUCHKINA	RUS
30.	32:40	+03:08	Antonella CONFORTOLA WYATT	ITA
31.	32:40	+03:09	Anastasia DOTSENKO	RUS
32.	32:43	+03:11	Svetlana NIKOLAEVA	RUS
33.	32:46	+03:14	Oxana JATSKAJA	KAZ
34.	32:55	+03:23	Virginia DE MARTIN TOPRANIN	ITA
35.	32:55	+03:24	Tatjana ROSHINA	KAZ