A day of surprise winners in Tour de Ski today ; nobody had put up the mens winner Heikkinen better than 4th spot – and nobody had set up the womens winner Haag better than 2nd spot. The winner of today’s predictions was statisticalskier who predicted Marcus Hellner and Justyna Kowalczyk on top. Geraldo13 was 9th on the 4th stage – and still keeps the overall lead after the 4 first Tour de Ski stages.

Of the men, only Bauer and Heikkinen performed as well or better than expected of the 10 most tipped athletes (see graphic below) – showing that this was really a difficult race to predict. Of the women, Kowalczyk, Saarinen, Majdic and Roponen disappointed, whereas Haag and Kalla were the two big positive surprises.

• Full results for the predictions for stage 4 available here
• Overall Tour de Ski prediction results (after 4 stages)
• Set up your predictions for the next race in Tour de Ski – the sprint race in Toblach on Wednesday