Overall Tour de Ski predictions: Results

Posted by Jan Kocbach, 09 Jan 2011@16:00

Congratulations to Qstoffe who took the overall victory in the Tour de Ski predictions! Fighting with more than 100 others, Qstoffe came up from behind and took the victory with 6007 points – more than 100 points ahead of Mats L in second and with a big gap down to Gigi in third.

Looking at the overall results, also big compliments to Ole-Johan in 10th spot who is the best of the ones with only 7 predictions. He has an average points of 775 – 15 points better than Qstoffe’s 750 points on average.

# Name Total points Average points Min points Maxpoints # predictions
1 qstoffe 6007 750 482 1112 8 predictions
2 Mats L 5903 737 528 1025 8 predictions
3 Gigi 5750 718 554 945 8 predictions
4 geraldo13 5705 713 395 987 8 predictions
5 Christopher Tassava 5634 704 484 1028 8 predictions
6 tom 5551 693 475 1092 8 predictions
7 DukeC 5517 689 439 1092 8 predictions
8 Mountainmums 5505 688 455 985 8 predictions
9 Anders & Maria H 5487 685 299 1075 8 predictions
10 Ole-Johan 5428 775 528 1219 7 predictions

The winner of today’s predictions was smeagol with 1280 points – this is also a new record number of points for the WhoWins predictions! ¬†Smeagol hit the big jackpot, getting all the women right, and also all men except for number 4 (where Smeagol tipped Gaillard instead of Perl. Compliments to Smeagol for that achievement!

Going forward after the Tour de Ski, there will probably be some changes in the rules for the WhoWins predictions based on comments from the readers. Here is one suggestion for a new set of rules:
  • Instead of doubling the number of points for a correct predicted position, there will be a bonus of 50 points if you have number 1 correct, 30 points for number 2 and 20 points for number 3.
  • Skiers which are not among the favourites will give extra points. It looks like the best way to do it is that all skiers are grouped in two groups – the favourites and the non-favourites. For all non-favourites, you get double points for your predictions. When setting up your predictions, you can see graphically which skiers are in the favourite-group and which are outside. This will probably be based on FIS-points / previous results, and only change a few times within each season. Also, there will not be different groups for sprint/distance (difficult to set up technically). ¬†I can imagine having around 25-30 skiers in the favourite group?
  • If you do not set up predictions for a race, your predictions go on to the next race unaltered.
  • If the rules are changed this way, it turn the WhoWins predictions a bit more into a type of “Fantasy World Cup”, but it looks like this is what people want based on the comments I have gotten.

Thanks to all for participating in the WhoWins predictions. It has been great fun so far with a few hundred different people participating – and I am sure it will be in the future as well. Please post comments on the format of the WhoWins predictions below. I don’t want to make these changes if you aren’t happy with them!

Splits analysis

The splits analysis up Alpe Cermis is very interesting – take a look by following the links below.

5 Comments

697

Comment by qstoffe

January 9, 2011 @ 17:13

I like the new rule for lesser bonus points for exact position.

The rule for non-favourites is also good but maybe there should be a smaller pool that is considered favourites (10-15 instead of 25-30)? I understand that might be difficult if it’s based on FIS points without regaurd of the actual race type.

I like the rule that you automatically keep your old prediction if you miss to predict a race.

PS. Thanks for providing this site to make the WC races much more interesting to watch.

706

Comment by qstoffe

January 15, 2011 @ 12:35

Hmm I’ve been thinking about the favourite/non-favourite rule. I think it would be much better if it was based on predictions instead of FIS-points.

For example. If everyone has picked Marit Bjorgen it would give very little extra points. If you have predicted a skier that almost no other has it would give much more points. Kind of how a gambling pool works. Dynamic odds depending on predictions.

707

Comment by dagger

January 15, 2011 @ 12:55

I think that it would be better to get extra points for skiers which have lower predictions.

708

Comment by Hans

January 15, 2011 @ 12:57

Good idea to have extra points for skiers with lower predictions, yes!

712

Comment by DukeC

January 17, 2011 @ 13:16

Yes, extra points for skiers that have few predictions is good. This will automatically get an up to date favorite list which is better than a pre-made one.

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