XC-Predictions: Ready for exciting Otepää weekend

Posted by Jan Kocbach, 20 Jan 2012@18:47

In Otepää we are ready for the 3rd classic sprint this season on Saturday – after the Kuusamo sprint in November and the Oberstdorf sprint in the end of December. In addition there is a discipline which is not skied too often – the classic interval start 10/15 km on Sunday- with the tough and difficult courses in Otepää this race is  something for the strongest skiers!

Most favorites are racing  - notably absent are Emil Jönsson (SWE) and Petter Northug (NOR) among the men and the 2010-winner Hanna Falk among the women who is not yet up to it along with French Jean Aurore who surprised with a 6th place in Oberstdorf.

Men’s sprint

In the men’s class, the Russians Nikita Kriukov, Alexey Pethukhov and Nikolay Morilov are definitely among the biggest favourites after their triple in the Oberstdorf classic sprint. Kriukov has been the most stable skier in classic sprint the last seasons, regularly making top 5 races when at the start line. Also look out for Sweden’s Teodor Peterson who showed his classic capabilities by winning in Kuusamo in the end of November – and again impressed in last week’s Milano skating sprint with a third place.

Norwegian Eirik Brandsdal and Ola Vigen Hattested won double in the Otepää classic sprint last year – they should both be counted among the top favourites this year around as well. While Hattestad has struggled finding his shape lately, Brandsdal won the Milano sprint in an impressive way last weekend.

Women’s sprint

In the women’s class we have the usual fight between Marit Bjørgen and Justyna Kowalczyk. Both have been resting since Tour de Ski, so it will be interesting to see how well they have regenerated. The classic sprint is usually not the best discipline for Kowalczyk – on the other hand Kowalczyk took the last classic sprint in Oberstdorf.

Charlotte Kalla took the second spot in the classic sprint opening in Kuusamo in November – and will want to mix in in the fight for victory. The same for a triplet of Norwegian skiers; Maiken Caspersen Falla who finished third in Otepää last year, Astrid Uhrenholdt Jacobsen who finished 3rd in the Oberstdorf sprint in the end of December, and Vibeke Skofterud – 3rd in Kuusamo – who is back after the sickness which made her unable to start in Tour de Ski.

Men’s 15 km Sunday

This is a race which is tailored for Lukas Bauer: The Czech skier took 3 x Otepää 15 km in a row between 2008 and 2010 (see statistics below) – and then could not start in 2011 due to illness. This year the Czech skier is back – and Bauer really wants to show that he can perform after not being happy with his  Tour de Ski results. Two other skiers who have this type of race as their specialty are Daniel Rickardsson (SWE) and Eldar Rønning (NOR). Rønning has been sick the last week, but is reported to be strong. Start lists are not yet ready when this is written, but Matti Heikkinen (FIN), Martin Johnsrud Sundby (NOR) are also typically strong in these kind of races.

Women’s 10 km Sunday

Marit Bjørgen is the big favourite over 10 km classic. The Norwegian has won the last three World Cup races over 10 km Classic ahead of Kowalczyk. On the other hand, Otepää is one of Kowalczyk’s favourite courses – she took the win here on the 10 km classic in 2009 and 2010. Also look out for Saarinen (FIN), Johaug (NOR), Skofterud (NOR) and Lähteenmäki (FIN) if they are on the start list.

Relevant Sprint Classic races men
Name 2011
Oberstdorf
2011-12-31
SP C Final
2011
Kuusamo
2011-11-25
SP C Final
2011
Stockholm
2011-03-16
SP C Final
2011
Lahti
2011-03-13
SP C Final
2011
Otepää
2011-01-23
SP C Final
2011
Oberstdorf
2011-01-02
SP C Final
2010
Otepää
2010-01-17
SP 1.4 km C Final
2009
Otepaeae
2009-01-25
SP C Final
JOENSSON Emil 26th 1st 1st 4th 1st 1st 8th
BRANDSDAL Eirik 4th 8th 2nd 1st 20th
HATTESTAD Ola Vigen 33rd 20th 3rd 13rd 2nd 2nd 1st
KRIUKOV Nikita 1st 2nd 5th 3rd 3rd 7th
PETERSON Teodor 10th 1st 37th 8th 10th
PETTERSEN Oeystein 3rd 20th 49th 2nd
NORTHUG Petter jr. 6th 16th 2nd 7th 15th
KERSHAW Devon 11st 56th 27th 49th 2nd
PETUKHOV Alexey 2nd 9th 5th 30th
GOLBERG Paal 3rd 41st
NAESS Boerre 46th 3rd
MORILOV Nikolay 3rd 121st 40th 11st 31st 10th
COLOGNA Dario 5th 11st 11st 36th 3rd 43rd
HETLAND Tor Arne 4th
VAEAENAENEN Jesse 15th 4th 23rd
MODIN Jesper 7th 4th 6th 6th 9th 14th 38th
DAHL John Kristian 48th 9th 4th 35th 30th
JAPAROV Dmitriy 4th 51st 43rd 10th
OESTENSEN Simen 21st 4th
ROENNING Eldar 23rd 17th 7th 22nd 18th 34th 5th
PANZHINSKIY Alexander 11st 26th 5th
RICKARDSSON Daniel 49th 35th 26th 18th 5th 23rd
NEWELL Andrew 25th 19th 5th 29th 12nd 13rd 24th
VALJAS Len 5th 63rd 31st
SCOLA Fulvio 47th 65th 6th 8th 16th
LIND Bjoern 6th 22nd
PENTSINEN Anssi 6th 24th 40th
LEGKOV Alexander 13rd 18th 23rd 6th
LARSSON Mats 18th 6th
JYLHAE Martti 36th 7th
VYLEGZHANIN Maxim 7th 69th 32nd
HARVEY Alex 17th 24th 14th 25th 7th
EINASTE Kein 20th 25th 26th 11st 7th 54th
HELLNER Marcus 9th 53rd 29th 8th
DEVJATIAROV Mickail Jun. 12nd 25th 8th
CHEBOTKO Nikolay 16th 8th 16th 40th 47th
MANIFICAT Maurice 8th 58th 22nd 30th
JAUHOJAERVI Sami 19th 26th 24th 16th 21st 9th
NOVICHIKHIN Mikhail 9th 39th
RETIVYKH Gleb 9th
KUMMEL Peeter 15th 13rd 39th 14th 26th 9th 19th
STRANDVALL Matias 21st 10th 21st 13rd 26th 13rd
ERIKSSON Jens 17th 41st 10th
POLTORANIN Alexey 45th 10th 34th
CHERNOUSOV Ilia 30th 10th 19th 20th
Relevant Sprint Classic races women
Name 2011
Oberstdorf
2011-12-31
SP C Final
2011
Kuusamo
2011-11-25
SP C Final
2011
Stockholm
2011-03-16
SP C Final
2011
Lahti
2011-03-13
SP C Final
2011
Otepää
2011-01-23
SP C Final
2011
Oberstdorf
2011-01-02
SP C Final
2010
Otepää
2010-01-17
SP 1.2 km C Final
2009
Otepaeae
2009-01-25
SP C Final
BJOERGEN Marit 2nd 1st 2nd 1st 10th 9th
FALK Hanna 34th 8th 9th 1st
MAJDIC Petra 1st 3rd 1st 1st 2nd 1st
KOWALCZYK Justyna 1st 13rd 7th 4th 4th 2nd 7th 7th
KALLA Charlotte 8th 2nd 9th 5th 11st
BRODIN Hanna 38th 10th 23rd 38th 2nd
SAARINEN Aino- Kaisa 16th 18th 8th 9th 11st 6th 3rd 2nd
JACOBSEN Astrid Uhrenholdt 3rd 74th 14th 2nd 14th 3rd 15th
FALLA Maiken Caspersen 11st 3rd 3rd 8th
KUITUNEN Virpi 14th 3rd
SKOFTERUD Vibeke W 3rd 33rd
MURANEN Pirjo 17th 11st 7th 6th 4th
INGEMARSDOTTER Ida 5th 15th 4th 7th 4th 18th
PROCHAZKOVA Alena 16th 5th 22nd 4th 5th
MATVEEVA Natalia 4th 6th 15th
RANDALL Kikkan 9th 4th 10th 21st 17th 15th
ANDERSSON Lina 22nd 25th 5th 17th 6th
KYLLOENEN Anne 21st 5th 27th 15th 19th 26th 33rd
IVANOVA Julia 32nd 24th 41st 26th 36th 5th 17th
PERAELAE Kirsi 26th 5th 12nd
VISNAR Katja 15th 9th 6th 13rd 6th 11st 24th
FOLLIS Arianna 20th 6th 15th
JEAN Aurore 6th 42nd 29th
OESTBERG Ingvild Flugstad 7th 36th 19th 17th 24th 7th 29th 14th
SMUTNA Katerina 27th 7th 26th 23rd 13rd 14th 16th 13rd
GAIAZOVA Daria 14th 48th 8th 12nd
JOHAUG Therese 18th 8th 31st 21st
LONGA Marianna 16th 10th 8th
PAJALA Magdalena 8th
OLSSON Anna 10th 9th
GENUIN Magda 15th 14th 9th
DOTSENKO Anastasia 10th 17th 36th
NATSUMI Madoka 33rd 17th 10th 26th 22nd
NORGREN Britta 10th
Results from relevant classic 15 km races men
Name 2011
Oslo
2011-03-01
15 km C
2011
Drammen
2011-02-19
15 km C
2011
Otepää
2011-01-22
15 km C
2010
Otepää
2010-01-16
15 km C
2009
Otepaeae
2009-01-24
15 km C
2008
Otepaa
2008-02-09
15 km C
ROENNING Eldar 2nd 7th 1st 7th 7th 35th
BAUER Lukas 7th 10th 1st 1st 1st
RICKARDSSON Daniel 42nd 1st 2nd 24th
HEIKKINEN Matti 1st 24th 24th 55th
MAE Jaak 14th 25th 29th 3rd 9th 2nd
VEERPALU Andrus 5th 2nd 33rd 4th
OLSSON Johan 17th 23rd 2nd 39th
JOHNSRUD SUNDBY Martin 3rd 2nd 7th 10th 23rd
NORTHUG Petter jr. 3rd 8th
NOUSIAINEN Ville 8th 24th 38th 3rd
VYLEGZHANIN Maxim 10th 12nd 3rd 53rd
VITTOZ Vincent 34th 3rd 10th
HELLNER Marcus 34th 4th 15th
NOVIKOV Sergey 4th 23rd 19th
TEICHMANN Axel 13rd 8th 14th 4th 30th
VOLZHENTSEV Stanislav 4th 5th 10th 38th
COLOGNA Dario 25th 4th 5th 8th
JAUHOJAERVI Sami 5th 9th 8th 48th
HJELMESET Odd-Bjoern 19th 8th 6th 5th
KUZNETSOV Alexander 5th 13rd
SEDOV Petr 6th
JAKS Martin 18th 42nd 6th 53rd 11st
SVARTEDAL Jens Arne 6th 21st 6th
MANIFICAT Maurice 6th 49th 31st 56th
SOEDERGREN Anders 22nd 43rd 21st 12nd 10th 7th
FILBRICH Jens 18th 9th 18th 9th
ZHMURKO Artem 42nd 9th
ANGERER Tobias 9th 16th 16th 12nd 13rd
SORIN Egor 10th
Results from relevant classic 10 km races women
Name 2011
Oslo
2011-02-28
10 km C
2011
Drammen
2011-02-19
10 km C
2011
Otepää
2011-01-22
10 km C
2010
Otepää
2010-01-16
10 km C
2009
Otepaeae
2009-01-24
10 km C
2008
Otepaa
2008-02-09
10 km C
BJOERGEN Marit 1st 1st 1st 2nd 6th 7th
KUITUNEN Virpi 6th 3rd 1st
KOWALCZYK Justyna 2nd 2nd 2nd 1st 1st 5th
SAARINEN Aino- Kaisa 3rd 3rd 4th 3rd 2nd 2nd
JOHAUG Therese 4th 4th 3rd 5th 3rd
KALLA Charlotte 11st 9th 4th 9th 16th
MAJDIC Petra 13rd 17th 9th 5th 4th 8th
NYSTAD Claudia 4th
LAHTEENMAKI Krista 5th 7th 18th
SKOFTERUD Vibeke W 9th 13rd 5th 13rd
INGEMARSDOTTER Ida 28th 5th
LONGA Marianna 7th 6th
MURANEN Pirjo 6th 15th 14th 7th 14th
TCHEKALEVA Yulia 12nd 11st 6th 11st
ROPONEN Riitta-Liisa 18th 8th 12nd 11st 6th
HAAG Anna 14th 12nd 7th 7th
ISHIDA Masako 17th 8th 11st 8th 15th 31st
KRISTOFFERSEN Marthe 18th 13rd 8th 15th
NISKANEN Kerttu 8th 14th 10th
SMIGUN-VAEHI Kristina 9th
TYLDUM Ingri Aunet 9th
STEMLAND Kristin Muerer 65th 10th
STEIRA Kristin Stoermer 10th 19th 12nd
SIDKO Alena 10th
JACOBSEN Astrid Uhrenholdt 10th 10th

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