XC-Predictions: Ready for exciting Otepää weekend

Posted by Jan Kocbach, 20 Jan 2012@18:47

In Otepää we are ready for the 3rd classic sprint this season on Saturday – after the Kuusamo sprint in November and the Oberstdorf sprint in the end of December. In addition there is a discipline which is not skied too often – the classic interval start 10/15 km on Sunday- with the tough and difficult courses in Otepää this race is  something for the strongest skiers!

Most favorites are racing  - notably absent are Emil Jönsson (SWE) and Petter Northug (NOR) among the men and the 2010-winner Hanna Falk among the women who is not yet up to it along with French Jean Aurore who surprised with a 6th place in Oberstdorf.

Men’s sprint

In the men’s class, the Russians Nikita Kriukov, Alexey Pethukhov and Nikolay Morilov are definitely among the biggest favourites after their triple in the Oberstdorf classic sprint. Kriukov has been the most stable skier in classic sprint the last seasons, regularly making top 5 races when at the start line. Also look out for Sweden’s Teodor Peterson who showed his classic capabilities by winning in Kuusamo in the end of November – and again impressed in last week’s Milano skating sprint with a third place.

Norwegian Eirik Brandsdal and Ola Vigen Hattested won double in the Otepää classic sprint last year – they should both be counted among the top favourites this year around as well. While Hattestad has struggled finding his shape lately, Brandsdal won the Milano sprint in an impressive way last weekend.

Women’s sprint

In the women’s class we have the usual fight between Marit Bjørgen and Justyna Kowalczyk. Both have been resting since Tour de Ski, so it will be interesting to see how well they have regenerated. The classic sprint is usually not the best discipline for Kowalczyk – on the other hand Kowalczyk took the last classic sprint in Oberstdorf.

Charlotte Kalla took the second spot in the classic sprint opening in Kuusamo in November – and will want to mix in in the fight for victory. The same for a triplet of Norwegian skiers; Maiken Caspersen Falla who finished third in Otepää last year, Astrid Uhrenholdt Jacobsen who finished 3rd in the Oberstdorf sprint in the end of December, and Vibeke Skofterud – 3rd in Kuusamo – who is back after the sickness which made her unable to start in Tour de Ski.

Men’s 15 km Sunday

This is a race which is tailored for Lukas Bauer: The Czech skier took 3 x Otepää 15 km in a row between 2008 and 2010 (see statistics below) – and then could not start in 2011 due to illness. This year the Czech skier is back – and Bauer really wants to show that he can perform after not being happy with his  Tour de Ski results. Two other skiers who have this type of race as their specialty are Daniel Rickardsson (SWE) and Eldar Rønning (NOR). Rønning has been sick the last week, but is reported to be strong. Start lists are not yet ready when this is written, but Matti Heikkinen (FIN), Martin Johnsrud Sundby (NOR) are also typically strong in these kind of races.

Women’s 10 km Sunday

Marit Bjørgen is the big favourite over 10 km classic. The Norwegian has won the last three World Cup races over 10 km Classic ahead of Kowalczyk. On the other hand, Otepää is one of Kowalczyk’s favourite courses – she took the win here on the 10 km classic in 2009 and 2010. Also look out for Saarinen (FIN), Johaug (NOR), Skofterud (NOR) and Lähteenmäki (FIN) if they are on the start list.

Relevant Sprint Classic races men
Name 2011
Oberstdorf
2011-12-31
SP C Final
2011
Kuusamo
2011-11-25
SP C Final
2011
Stockholm
2011-03-16
SP C Final
2011
Lahti
2011-03-13
SP C Final
2011
Otepää
2011-01-23
SP C Final
2011
Oberstdorf
2011-01-02
SP C Final
2010
Otepää
2010-01-17
SP 1.4 km C Final
2009
Otepaeae
2009-01-25
SP C Final
JOENSSON Emil 26th 1st 1st 4th 1st 1st 8th
BRANDSDAL Eirik 4th 8th 2nd 1st 20th
HATTESTAD Ola Vigen 33rd 20th 3rd 13rd 2nd 2nd 1st
KRIUKOV Nikita 1st 2nd 5th 3rd 3rd 7th
PETERSON Teodor 10th 1st 37th 8th 10th
PETTERSEN Oeystein 3rd 20th 49th 2nd
NORTHUG Petter jr. 6th 16th 2nd 7th 15th
KERSHAW Devon 11st 56th 27th 49th 2nd
PETUKHOV Alexey 2nd 9th 5th 30th
GOLBERG Paal 3rd 41st
NAESS Boerre 46th 3rd
MORILOV Nikolay 3rd 121st 40th 11st 31st 10th
COLOGNA Dario 5th 11st 11st 36th 3rd 43rd
HETLAND Tor Arne 4th
VAEAENAENEN Jesse 15th 4th 23rd
MODIN Jesper 7th 4th 6th 6th 9th 14th 38th
DAHL John Kristian 48th 9th 4th 35th 30th
JAPAROV Dmitriy 4th 51st 43rd 10th
OESTENSEN Simen 21st 4th
ROENNING Eldar 23rd 17th 7th 22nd 18th 34th 5th
PANZHINSKIY Alexander 11st 26th 5th
RICKARDSSON Daniel 49th 35th 26th 18th 5th 23rd
NEWELL Andrew 25th 19th 5th 29th 12nd 13rd 24th
VALJAS Len 5th 63rd 31st
SCOLA Fulvio 47th 65th 6th 8th 16th
LIND Bjoern 6th 22nd
PENTSINEN Anssi 6th 24th 40th
LEGKOV Alexander 13rd 18th 23rd 6th
LARSSON Mats 18th 6th
JYLHAE Martti 36th 7th
VYLEGZHANIN Maxim 7th 69th 32nd
HARVEY Alex 17th 24th 14th 25th 7th
EINASTE Kein 20th 25th 26th 11st 7th 54th
HELLNER Marcus 9th 53rd 29th 8th
DEVJATIAROV Mickail Jun. 12nd 25th 8th
CHEBOTKO Nikolay 16th 8th 16th 40th 47th
MANIFICAT Maurice 8th 58th 22nd 30th
JAUHOJAERVI Sami 19th 26th 24th 16th 21st 9th
NOVICHIKHIN Mikhail 9th 39th
RETIVYKH Gleb 9th
KUMMEL Peeter 15th 13rd 39th 14th 26th 9th 19th
STRANDVALL Matias 21st 10th 21st 13rd 26th 13rd
ERIKSSON Jens 17th 41st 10th
POLTORANIN Alexey 45th 10th 34th
CHERNOUSOV Ilia 30th 10th 19th 20th
Relevant Sprint Classic races women
Name 2011
Oberstdorf
2011-12-31
SP C Final
2011
Kuusamo
2011-11-25
SP C Final
2011
Stockholm
2011-03-16
SP C Final
2011
Lahti
2011-03-13
SP C Final
2011
Otepää
2011-01-23
SP C Final
2011
Oberstdorf
2011-01-02
SP C Final
2010
Otepää
2010-01-17
SP 1.2 km C Final
2009
Otepaeae
2009-01-25
SP C Final
BJOERGEN Marit 2nd 1st 2nd 1st 10th 9th
FALK Hanna 34th 8th 9th 1st
MAJDIC Petra 1st 3rd 1st 1st 2nd 1st
KOWALCZYK Justyna 1st 13rd 7th 4th 4th 2nd 7th 7th
KALLA Charlotte 8th 2nd 9th 5th 11st
BRODIN Hanna 38th 10th 23rd 38th 2nd
SAARINEN Aino- Kaisa 16th 18th 8th 9th 11st 6th 3rd 2nd
JACOBSEN Astrid Uhrenholdt 3rd 74th 14th 2nd 14th 3rd 15th
FALLA Maiken Caspersen 11st 3rd 3rd 8th
KUITUNEN Virpi 14th 3rd
SKOFTERUD Vibeke W 3rd 33rd
MURANEN Pirjo 17th 11st 7th 6th 4th
INGEMARSDOTTER Ida 5th 15th 4th 7th 4th 18th
PROCHAZKOVA Alena 16th 5th 22nd 4th 5th
MATVEEVA Natalia 4th 6th 15th
RANDALL Kikkan 9th 4th 10th 21st 17th 15th
ANDERSSON Lina 22nd 25th 5th 17th 6th
KYLLOENEN Anne 21st 5th 27th 15th 19th 26th 33rd
IVANOVA Julia 32nd 24th 41st 26th 36th 5th 17th
PERAELAE Kirsi 26th 5th 12nd
VISNAR Katja 15th 9th 6th 13rd 6th 11st 24th
FOLLIS Arianna 20th 6th 15th
JEAN Aurore 6th 42nd 29th
OESTBERG Ingvild Flugstad 7th 36th 19th 17th 24th 7th 29th 14th
SMUTNA Katerina 27th 7th 26th 23rd 13rd 14th 16th 13rd
GAIAZOVA Daria 14th 48th 8th 12nd
JOHAUG Therese 18th 8th 31st 21st
LONGA Marianna 16th 10th 8th
PAJALA Magdalena 8th
OLSSON Anna 10th 9th
GENUIN Magda 15th 14th 9th
DOTSENKO Anastasia 10th 17th 36th
NATSUMI Madoka 33rd 17th 10th 26th 22nd
NORGREN Britta 10th
Results from relevant classic 15 km races men
Name 2011
Oslo
2011-03-01
15 km C
2011
Drammen
2011-02-19
15 km C
2011
Otepää
2011-01-22
15 km C
2010
Otepää
2010-01-16
15 km C
2009
Otepaeae
2009-01-24
15 km C
2008
Otepaa
2008-02-09
15 km C
ROENNING Eldar 2nd 7th 1st 7th 7th 35th
BAUER Lukas 7th 10th 1st 1st 1st
RICKARDSSON Daniel 42nd 1st 2nd 24th
HEIKKINEN Matti 1st 24th 24th 55th
MAE Jaak 14th 25th 29th 3rd 9th 2nd
VEERPALU Andrus 5th 2nd 33rd 4th
OLSSON Johan 17th 23rd 2nd 39th
JOHNSRUD SUNDBY Martin 3rd 2nd 7th 10th 23rd
NORTHUG Petter jr. 3rd 8th
NOUSIAINEN Ville 8th 24th 38th 3rd
VYLEGZHANIN Maxim 10th 12nd 3rd 53rd
VITTOZ Vincent 34th 3rd 10th
HELLNER Marcus 34th 4th 15th
NOVIKOV Sergey 4th 23rd 19th
TEICHMANN Axel 13rd 8th 14th 4th 30th
VOLZHENTSEV Stanislav 4th 5th 10th 38th
COLOGNA Dario 25th 4th 5th 8th
JAUHOJAERVI Sami 5th 9th 8th 48th
HJELMESET Odd-Bjoern 19th 8th 6th 5th
KUZNETSOV Alexander 5th 13rd
SEDOV Petr 6th
JAKS Martin 18th 42nd 6th 53rd 11st
SVARTEDAL Jens Arne 6th 21st 6th
MANIFICAT Maurice 6th 49th 31st 56th
SOEDERGREN Anders 22nd 43rd 21st 12nd 10th 7th
FILBRICH Jens 18th 9th 18th 9th
ZHMURKO Artem 42nd 9th
ANGERER Tobias 9th 16th 16th 12nd 13rd
SORIN Egor 10th
Results from relevant classic 10 km races women
Name 2011
Oslo
2011-02-28
10 km C
2011
Drammen
2011-02-19
10 km C
2011
Otepää
2011-01-22
10 km C
2010
Otepää
2010-01-16
10 km C
2009
Otepaeae
2009-01-24
10 km C
2008
Otepaa
2008-02-09
10 km C
BJOERGEN Marit 1st 1st 1st 2nd 6th 7th
KUITUNEN Virpi 6th 3rd 1st
KOWALCZYK Justyna 2nd 2nd 2nd 1st 1st 5th
SAARINEN Aino- Kaisa 3rd 3rd 4th 3rd 2nd 2nd
JOHAUG Therese 4th 4th 3rd 5th 3rd
KALLA Charlotte 11st 9th 4th 9th 16th
MAJDIC Petra 13rd 17th 9th 5th 4th 8th
NYSTAD Claudia 4th
LAHTEENMAKI Krista 5th 7th 18th
SKOFTERUD Vibeke W 9th 13rd 5th 13rd
INGEMARSDOTTER Ida 28th 5th
LONGA Marianna 7th 6th
MURANEN Pirjo 6th 15th 14th 7th 14th
TCHEKALEVA Yulia 12nd 11st 6th 11st
ROPONEN Riitta-Liisa 18th 8th 12nd 11st 6th
HAAG Anna 14th 12nd 7th 7th
ISHIDA Masako 17th 8th 11st 8th 15th 31st
KRISTOFFERSEN Marthe 18th 13rd 8th 15th
NISKANEN Kerttu 8th 14th 10th
SMIGUN-VAEHI Kristina 9th
TYLDUM Ingri Aunet 9th
STEMLAND Kristin Muerer 65th 10th
STEIRA Kristin Stoermer 10th 19th 12nd
SIDKO Alena 10th
JACOBSEN Astrid Uhrenholdt 10th 10th

XC-Predictions: Milano Sprint

Posted by Jan Kocbach, 13 Jan 2012@20:14

For the first time since 1998 the Cross Country Skiing World Cup is back in Milano. The course this weekend is a completely flat course – 620 meters long – but still with some technical elements due to many curves. The competitions will take place in the Sempione Park (Parco Sempione) close by the city center for the first time. The Park with its 380,000 square meters is the largest green space in the historic center of the city.

Most of the all-round skiers who competed in Tour de Ski skip the Milano sprint – like Dario Cologna, Petter Northug, Justyna Kowalczyk and Marit Bjørgen. The pure sprint specialists are all at the start in the sprint races in Milano – but notably the Swedish Sprint specialists Emil Jönsson skips the races. “Emil got cold after the Tour and therefore had to stay at home,” Sweden’s sprint coach Arild Monsen explains in a press relase from the Swedish Ski Team.

Men’s favourites

Of the Men on the start list, Morilov (RUS), Petukhov (RUS) and Hattestad (NOR) each have one victory in skating sprint races this season (see table below for results in the last skating sprints for all starters in the Milano sprint). The biggest favourites in the Milano sprint are again the Russian skiers – but Hattestad who won in a similar flat course in Düsseldorf in early December is very eager to be back on top after his disappointing classic sprint during Tour de Ski where he missed the finals.

Swedish Peterson started the season very well with 5th and 2nd places in Düsseldorf and Davos – the Swede will want to show that he is still to be counted in the top. Also count in the other Norwegian skiers among the favourites – Gløersen, Golberg and Brandsdal finished 3rd, 4th and 6th in Rogla. Also count in home favourite Pellegrino (ITA) who got to the finals in Düsseldorf but has not come past the semifinals since then – and Hofer (ITA) who finished 4th in Toblach.

Women’s favourites

Kikkan Randall has been the dominating skier in the women’s sprint this season – winning the two first races in Düsseldorf and Davos. Finishing Tour de Ski up Alpe Cermis last weekend cost her a lot of power though, so it will be exciting to see if the American skier has managed to get enough rest the last week.

Norwegian sprint specialist Maike Caspersen Falla got her first World Cup victory in Rogla before Christmas, and will try to repeat the victory in Milano. Also look out for Crawford (CAN) and Matveeva (RUS).

Another interesting start is Swiss Van der Graaff who has the impressive series 3 – 5 – 8 in the first three sprint races this season – after finishing around number 40 last season. See the table below for other outsiders based on the latest sprint free technique races in the World Cup.

Men starters
Name 2012
Toblach
2012-01-04
2011
Rogla
2011-12-18
2011
Davos
2011-12-11
2011
Duesseldorf
2011-12-03
2011
Oslo
2011-02-24
2011
Drammen
2011-02-20
MORILOV Nikolay 1st 2nd 6th 34th 8th
HATTESTAD Ola Vigen 5th 53rd 1st 4th
PETUKHOV Alexey 5th 9th 1st 2nd 14th
PETERSON Teodor 9th 8th 2nd 5th 16th 33rd
GLOEERSEN Anders 3rd 17th 26th 13rd
GOLBERG Paal 4th 8th 3rd 26th
HOFER David 4th 12nd 13rd 59th 18th 23rd
PENTSINEN Anssi 23rd 30th 4th 32nd 47th
JYLHAE Martti 24th 22nd 15th 22nd 5th
MODIN Jesper 26th 20th 21st 5th
KUMMEL Peeter 30th 39th 34th 52nd 6th
BRANDSDAL Eirik 6th 10th 17th
PELLEGRINO Federico 28th 7th 12nd 6th 12nd 17th
WENZL Josef 7th 37th 27th 17th 39th
STRANDVALL Matias 45th 46th 7th 20th 7th
TAMBORNINO Eligius 11st 26th 8th 35th
FRASNELLI Loris 23rd 8th
KINDSCHI Joeri 33rd 18th 9th 38th
VALJAS Len 18th 28th 42nd 15th 9th
NOECKLER Dietmar 10th 43rd
NEWELL Andrew 21st 16th 16th 10th 18th
HAMILTON Simeon 10th 33rd 25th 53rd
PASINI Renato 35th 38th 33rd 30th 11st
JAEGER Martin 28th 31st 11st 11st
NORTHUG Tomas 54th 12nd 14th
GAFAROV Anton 13rd 41st 31st 37th
PETTERSEN Oeystein 16th 14th 29th 41st
PASINI Fabio 14th 47th
SCOLA Fulvio 32nd 60th 57th 43rd 15th
LINDBLAD Anton 15th 28th
TRITSCHER Bernhard 17th 34th 24th 61st 21st 19th
BRYNTESSON Robin 17th 19th 22nd
EISENLAUER Sebastian 46th 19th
GROS Baptiste 20th 47th 36th
EDIN Johan 29th 21st
PANZHINSKIY Alexander 25th 51st 22nd
HEDIGER Jovian 22nd 39th
HEUN Daniel 48th 35th 23rd 27th 30th
KOZISEK Dusan 65th 50th 24th 34th
FOSSLI Sondre Turvoll 25th
BOGDANOV Stanislav 30th 25th 30th 38th
DARRAGON Roddy 36th 32nd 27th 40th
SAAREPUU Anti 34th 50th
SIMONLATSER Timo 35th 40th 47th
BARTON Jan 58th 52nd 35th
HALFVARSSON Calle 38th
EIGENMANN Christoph 55th 40th
WURM Harald 41st 51st 44th 53rd 44th
MIRANDA Cyril 43rd 43rd 62nd 42nd 56th
HERBURGER Aurelius 44th 44th 54th
PARFENOV Andrey 45th
STOCKINGER Martin 49th
SELLIS Siim 56th 64th 51st
RAZYM Ales 60th 54th
RANKEL Raido 65th 57th
JAY Renaud 67th 65th
KOSTNER Janmatie 68th
WATSON Callum 75th 87th 81st
Women starters
Name 2012
Toblach
2012-01-04
2011
Rogla
2011-12-18
2011
Davos
2011-12-11
2011
Duesseldorf
2011-12-03
2011
Oslo
2011-02-24
2011
Drammen
2011-02-20
FALLA Maiken Caspersen 1st 3rd 8th 13rd 2nd
RANDALL Kikkan 2nd 6th 1st 1st 26th 1st
CRAWFORD Chandra 2nd 9th 4th 28th 14th
MATVEEVA Natalia 23rd 14th 2nd 2nd
INGEMARSDOTTER Ida 27th 3rd 48th 12nd 6th
VAN DER GRAAFF Laurien 8th 5th 3rd 40th 41st
FABJAN Vesna 5th 7th 11st 20th 4th 9th
HERRMANN Denise 4th 16th 13rd 37th 23rd 19th
BRODIN Hanna 41st 4th 5th 10th 33rd
KOROSTELEVA Natalia 14th 5th 18th 24th 32nd 39th
WENG Heidi 12nd 6th 23rd 47th
SARASOJA-LILJA Riikka 21st 13rd 26th 6th
MALVALEHTO Mona-Lisa 21st 17th 7th
BRUN-LIE Celine 14th 7th
GAIAZOVA Daria 9th 30th 46th 20th 20th
ERIKSSON Mia 57th 9th
JEAN Aurore 9th 23rd 40th 31st 59th
VISNAR Katja 10th 21st 13rd 21st 21st
EIDE Mari 56th 12nd 29th
VUERICH Gaia 17th 14th 35th 26th
GRUBER Bettina 22nd 32nd 15th
NIKOLAEVA Svetlana 40th 15th 16th 55th
KYLLOENEN Anne 20th 42nd 28th 17th 33rd 43rd
GROENVOLL Maria Nysted 25th 18th
CEBASEK Alenka 31st 28th 19th 18th 19th
TRACHSEL Doris 20th 43rd
BROCARD Elisa 22nd 29th 34th 21st 46th 51st
BUILLET Marion 38th 51st 22nd
BJORNSEN Sadie 52nd 34th 24th 42nd
DIGGINS Jessica 25th 46th
SARGENT Ida 25th 50th 52nd 45th
SOEMSKAR Linn 35th 36th 26th
JONES Perianne 52nd 29th 32nd 29th 49th
NOVIKOVA Valentina 32nd 40th
RINGWALD Sandra 47th 33rd
DEBERTOLIS Ilaria 38th 48th
LAURENT Greta 41st 54th
GROHOVA Karolina 65th 42nd
BOTTOMLEY Esther 44th 56th
LOCATELLI Manon 44th 44th
HARSEM Kathrine Rolsted 53rd

Tour de Ski Predictions: Victory for Roar!

Posted by Jan Kocbach, 08 Jan 2012@17:16

Roar took home the overall Tour de Ski 2011/2012 XC-predictions – 107 points ahead of Arne Post in second spot. Thanks for everybody participating – and congratulations to Roar for his victory.

In today’s Alpe Cermis predictions Roberto Dallavalle was strongest ahead of IvarW. The final Tour de Ski standings predictions were won by David Charabin.

See also:

Winner interview

Below you find a short interview with the winner, Roar.

Q: Congratulations with the victory in the overall Tour de Ski predictions! Did you use much time to research your predictions ahead of each race?
- Thank you! Very pleased with the victory. I am extremely interested in watching cross country skiing on television and Northug has been my favourite since the autumn of 2005. I was one of them who was really upset when he was left out of the 2006 Olympic squad.

Q: Where are you from? Are you a skier yourself?
- I am originally from Norway but currently living in Sweden. I have done some skiing many kilograms ago but I was not any good at all really.

Q: How long have you been using the WorldofXC XC-Predictions? And where did you find it?
- I found the Worldofxc site a couple of years ago after searching for a skiing tips site on the internet.

Q: Can you suggest any improvements for the XC-Predictions?
- One improvement might be to make the drag and drop work on iPhone/Android. Another one would be to make it possible to choose a substitute skier in each race.

[Editors comment: Some support for iPhone/Android will be coming. Not sure if it will be drag-and-drop or just choosing from a drop-down menu though]

Results WhoWins Tour de Ski Predictions 2011/2012
Place Name Points #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9 #10
1. Roar 6218 589 463 535 806 651 681 744 531 603 615
2. Arne Post 6111 656 556 464 730 518 710 757 549 638 533
3. JonasE 6084 611 506 466 799 511 622 732 586 640 611
4. Roberto Dallavalle 6079 624 539 414 733 638 587 758 513 679 594
5. Sofia 6077 712 563 455 711 460 645 768 495 587 681
6. Rolf Z 6072 608 535 537 741 521 689 672 579 553 637
7. Paul 6072 568 508 491 762 589 669 757 478 613 637
8. David Bregvadze 6072 535 565 498 763 632 593 752 552 589 593
9. PeJa 6071 579 553 485 743 652 615 771 519 524 630
10. tolsrav 6009 703 530 484 666 508 649 752 480 630 607

Tour de Ski Alpe Cermis 2012: Men GPS analysis

Posted by Jan Kocbach, 08 Jan 2012@15:13

Alexander Legkov (RUS) was the strongest skier on the Alpe Cermis stage in the 2012 edition of Tour de Ski – only 0.1 second ahead of Maurice Manificat (FRA) and with Marcus Hellner (SWE) only a second behind.  Curious fact: Both these skiers broke down completely on the second last stage of Tour de Ski 2012 – loosing around 2 minutes!

Updated 8/1/2011 22:30! Article has been updated with GPS-data read out from the units – now better data available.

However, Roland Clara (ITA) won the climb itself (see climb times further below) – with Legkov only in fourth 16 seconds behind. Manificat and Moriggle (ITA) where also faster than Legkov up the final climb.

See also:

GPS illustration

The above GPS split times illustration is taken from the live GPS tracking (complete GPS-tracking available here). Unfortunately Manificat’s GPS did not transsmit data in the first part of the stage, but You can see how Manificat was 20 seconds behind Legkov after 7.4 km – beating Legkov in the last part.

(The article continues below the graph)

Hellner versus Northug

The biggest fight in today’s stage was the fight for second spot – as Dario Cologna (SUI) could “take it easy” at the front of the race. The two main players in the fight for the seconds spot was Marcus Hellner (SWE) and Petter Northug (NOR). Northug started 40 seconds behind Hellner, and lost some small seconds on the first flat part as you can see on the GPS-illustration below. When the hill starts around 6.5 km, Hellner eats the lead of Northug second by second – catching the Norwegian around 7.5 km. Northug manages to hang on for 500 meters, but then at 8 km it is “Good bye” to Northug. Hellner takes nearly 40 seconds on Northug in the end.

Legkov versus Hellner

Now comparing Hellner against Legkov for the stage win – a fight which Hellner looses with just about a second. Hellner takes time on Legkov in the flat part up to 7 km, then Legkov takes time on Hellner in the first part of the alpine hill. Based on the comparison between Hellner and Northug above, it looks like this is where Hellner takes it easy for some minutes to gather some strength to catch Northug. Thus it looks like Hellner looses the stage victory due to his tactical play in order to win the second spot in the overall tour.

Clara versus Legkov

Next up is Roland Clara – the strongest climber today – versus Legkov. As you can see from the below illustration, Clara looses around 30 seconds in the flat part of the course until around 6 km – then continues to loose some time in the steepest part of the hill, but is clearly faster from 7.8 km and up to the finish where he gains more than 20 seconds.

What about Lukas Bauer?

Lukas Bauer (CZE) was the big favourite to win the stage after impressive performance in earlier editions. This was however not Bauer’s big day – loosing a lot of time in the flat part and in the first part of the hill. The first 7.7 km Bauer lost nearly a minute to Legkov. The last part of the hill Bauer was on par with Legkov – but then Legkov had already started loosing to Clara.

Cologna versus Hellner and Northug

Comparing Dario Cologna with Hellner, you see how Hellner is on par with Cologna in the flat part, and then picks a minute up the alpine hill.

Comparing Cologna with Northug, the opposite happens. Northug manages to get some seconds on Cologna in the flat part down to 6 km, but then looses time in the alpine hill in two places: around 7.3 km where Northug waits for Hellner and from 7.5 km where Northug understands that he has lost all possibilities for a 2nd spot and his 3rd spot is secured.

Climb times

Climb times of all skiers are available here.

1. Roland Clara 16.34.9
2. Maurice Manificat 16.48.2
3. Thomas Moriggle 16.49.3
4. Alexander Legkov 16.51.0
5. Matti Heikkinen 16.51.8
6. Sjur Røthe 17.07.9
7. Marcus Hellner 17.10.3
8. Michail Semenov 17.13.8
9. Yevgeniy Velichko 17.18.2
10. Martin Bajcicak 17.18.8

Stage times

Stage times for all skiers available from FIS.

1 LEGKOV Alexander RUS 30:38.2 0.00
2 MANIFICAT Maurice FRA 30:38.3 0.07
3 HELLNER Marcus SWE 30:39.9 1.11
4 CLARA Roland ITA 30:54.4 10.58
5 MORIGGL Thomas ITA 31:08.9 20.04
6 HEIKKINEN Matti FIN 31:12.3 22.26
7 ROETHE Sjur NOR 31:30.8 34.34
8 BAUER Lukas CZE 31:31.1 34.53
9 DI CENTA Giorgio ITA 31:35.9 37.67
10 DYRHAUG Niklas NOR 31:37.0 38.39

Tour de Ski Alpe Cermis 2012: Women analysis

Posted by Jan Kocbach, 08 Jan 2012@13:19

The above illustration shows a splits analysis of the development in the final Tour de Ski stage up Alpe Cermis – highlighting how Justyna Kowalczyk (POL) did a fantastic race – crushing Marit Bjørgen (NOR) and everybody else in the toughest part of the hill.

XC-Predictions: Standings ahead of Alpe Cermis

Posted by Jan Kocbach, 07 Jan 2012@16:38

With only one race left of this year’s exciting Tour de Ski, Roar keeps the overall lead in the XC-Predictions with 5000 points – 60 points ahead of Arne Post in second with PeJa in third another 23 points behind. Thus the fight for victory is still open as both the overall Tour and the last stage are left.

In the XC-Predictions of Stage 8, Evelina was strongest with 679 points ahead of bergelius and SIEGER JC.

Place Name Points #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9 #10
1. Roar 5000 589 463 535 806 651 681 744 531 x
2. Arne Post 4940 656 556 464 730 518 710 757 549 x x
3. PeJa 4917 579 553 485 743 652 615 771 519 x
4. David Bregvadze 4890 535 565 498 763 632 593 752 552 x
5. Rolf Z 4882 608 535 537 741 521 689 672 579 x
6. Aaron Gaio 4864 634 562 417 819 572 609 732 519 x x
7. Les Gens Parka Grande 4861 623 460 524 635 584 757 843 435 x
8. Irina 4847 655 585 564 755 425 593 733 537 x
9. JonasE 4833 611 506 466 799 511 622 732 586 x
10. Paul 4822 568 508 491 762 589 669 757 478 x

Preview: Alpe Cermis Final Climb 2012

Posted by Jan Kocbach, 07 Jan 2012@12:05


The Final Climb up Alpe Cermis is the toughest race in the Cross Country Skiing World Cup – this is the stage where legends are made and the Tour de Ski is decided.

Norwegian skier Therese Johaug’s climb in 2011 is the most legendary race up Alpe Cermis so far – beating Marte Elden (NOR) in second spot with more than a minute and Justyna Kowalczyk (POL) with nearly two minutes. Lukas Bauer (CZE) is the King of Alpe Cermis being fastest up two times. Most impressive was the legendary 2010 edition where Bauer started the stage 10 seconds behind Petter Northug (NOR) and crushed Northug up the Final Climb – winning the overall Tour de Ski with 1:16 down to Northug AND in addition winning the Alpe Cermis stage.

Facts about Alpe Cermis

Some facts about the Alpe Cermis stage:

- Height difference of 425 meters
- Total climb 495 meters
- Final stage in Tour de Ski since the first edition in 2007
- The toughest race in the Cross Country Skiing World Cup
- Length of the race 9.000 meters (since 2011)
- Same course for men and women (since 2011). The first part of the course has changed over the years
Therese Johaug (NOR) is the Queen of Alpe Cermis with her fantastic 2011 race
Lukas Bauer (CZE) is the King of Alpe Cermis with three best times

2012 preview: Men

Lukas Bauer, Ivan Babikov (CAN) and Giorgio Di Centa (ITA) are the three skiers in this year’s start field who always perform well up Alpe Cermis (see the table below or the full table for all skiers here). But with such a tough race profile , motivation and position in the field is often just as important as pure strength. Dario Cologna (SUI), Alexander Legkov (RUS) and Marcus Hellner (SWE) have all shown that they can perform on par with the stage winner if it is necessary in order to fight for the victory. Petter Northug has come closer and closer to the stage winner each year  - down to +39 seconds in 2011. If the fast Norwegian continues his improvements, he should be able to fight for the stage win this year.

In the overall, Cologna has a lead of 1:22 down to Petter Northug with Hellner and Kershaw at 2:06. Lukas Bauer is in 5th at 3:35. Based on the previous races up Alpe Cermis, this should be an easy job for Cologna. The race for 2nd spot can get a tight fight between Northug, Hellner and Kershaw, though.

2012 preview: Women

In the womens class, Therese Johaug is the big favourite for the stage win after crushing the field last year and also winning in 2009. The other big names for the last stage are Kristin Størmer Steira (NOR) who won the stage in 2010 and Valentina Shevchenko (UKR) who took the Alpe Cermis stage win in 2008.  Riitta-Liisa Roponen (FIN) was only 3 seconds behind Steira in 2010 and should also be counted among the outsiders for the stage win. And don’t forget Marthe Kristoffersen (NOR) – third last year, and in better shape this year.

Taking a look at the fight between the two fighting for the overall victory – Marit Bjørgen (NOR) and Justyna Kowalczyk (POL), Kowalczyk seems to be stronger, but Bjørgen has yet to race the stage in 100% top shape. Last year Johaug took nearly 2 minutes on Justyna Kowalczyk, but Kowalczyk skied at the front of the field without pressure, and her race up Alpe Cermis was therefore more like “a walk in the park” than the toughest race of the year. In 2010 Kowalczyk was only 25 seconds behind the stage winner Kristin Størmer Steira, and thus Kowalczyk has shown that she can perform very well if needed. Marit Bjørgen  has only raced the Alpe Cermis stage twice – in 2007 when she lost 1:20 to the stage winner and in 2009 when she lost nearly 4 minutes after a full break-down. However, Bjørgen should be able to fight on equal terms with Kowalczyk – this is going to be very interesting!

Men: Tour de Ski overall
Name 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
BAUER Lukas +1:44.1
4:29:46.1 (3)
+0:00.0
4:13:10.6 (1)
+2:20.8
2:58:26.2 (10)
+0:00.0
3:38:07.4 (1)
ANGERER Tobias +4:37.3
3:42:44.7 (14)
+0:00.0
3:29:49.7 (1)
COLOGNA Dario +0:00.0
4:28:02.0 (1)
+1:32.1
4:14:42.8 (3)
+0:00.0
2:56:05.4 (1)
+7:36.1
3:45:43.5 (30)
NORTHUG Petter jr. +0:27.2
4:28:29.3 (2)
+1:16.3
4:14:27.0 (2)
+0:59.0
2:57:04.4 (2)
+3:52.9
3:42:00.3 (8)
+1:07.0
3:30:56.7 (4)
LEGKOV Alexander +5:37.4
3:01:42.8 (33)
+5:27.0
3:43:34.4 (20)
+0:46.3
3:30:36.1 (2)
OESTENSEN Simen +9:10.1
4:22:20.8 (25)
+7:24.9
3:45:32.3 (28)
+0:50.1
3:30:39.9 (3)
TEICHMANN Axel +3:08.0
4:16:18.6 (7)
+1:02.8
2:57:08.2 (3)
+4:36.5
3:42:43.9 (13)
Women: Tour de Ski overall
Name 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
KALLA Charlotte +4:27.7
2:51:58.7 (5)
+0:00.0
2:43:01.0 (1)
KUITUNEN Virpi +0:00.0
2:06:41.4 (1)
+0:36.3
2:43:37.4 (2)
+0:00.0
2:20:15.3 (1)
KOWALCZYK Justyna +0:00.0
2:47:31.0 (1)
+0:00.0
2:37:54.5 (1)
+1:21.1
2:08:02.5 (4)
+2:20.7
2:45:21.8 (7)
+3:08.5
2:23:23.8 (11)
SAARINEN Aino- Kaisa +8:12.1
2:55:43.1 (13)
+1:34.7
2:39:29.2 (4)
+0:07.2
2:06:48.6 (2)
+4:07.1
2:47:08.1 (17)
+1:21.8
2:21:37.1 (4)
MAJDIC Petra +4:52.6
2:52:23.6 (6)
+0:19.2
2:38:13.7 (2)
+0:34.5
2:07:15.9 (3)
+4:36.0
2:47:37.0 (18)
+1:52.0
2:22:07.3 (6)
FOLLIS Arianna +3:19.9
2:50:50.9 (4)
+1:12.2
2:39:06.7 (3)
+2:35.6
2:09:17.0 (8)
+0:53.2
2:43:54.3 (3)
+4:31.9
2:24:47.2 (16)
SHEVCHENKO Valentina +8:57.9
2:56:28.9 (16)
+6:27.2
2:44:21.8 (19)
+4:06.6
2:10:48.0 (14)
+1:09.2
2:44:10.2 (4)
+1:20.8
2:21:36.1 (3)
ROTCHEVA Olga +6:31.4
2:13:12.8 (19)
+1:14.7
2:44:15.8 (5)
BJOERGEN Marit +3:12.4
2:09:53.8 (10)
+1:17.5
2:21:32.8 (2)
JOHAUG Therese +1:21.5
2:48:52.5 (2)
+2:20.0
2:09:01.4 (6)
+3:33.7
2:46:34.7 (14)
NEUMANNOVA Katerina +1:23.8
2:21:39.1 (5)
Men: Alpe Cermis only
Name 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 Best Average
BAUER Lukas +0:00.0
30:28.3 (1)
+0:00.0
33:43.4 (1)
+0:15.2
34:06.4 (5)
+0:46.0
33:45.1 (7)
+0:00.0 +0:15.3
BABIKOV Ivan +0:47.1
31:15.4 (6)
+0:05.2
33:48.7 (4)
+0:00.0
33:51.2 (1)
+0:00.0 +0:17.4
HELLNER Marcus +1:57.4
32:25.7 (23)
+0:02.3
33:45.8 (2)
+1:16.3
34:15.3 (14)
+2:01.5
34:09.3 (31)
+0:02.3 +1:19.4
DI CENTA Giorgio +1:16.0
31:44.3 (14)
+0:39.1
34:22.6 (8)
+0:03.2
33:54.4 (3)
+0:35.4
33:34.4 (4)
+0:41.4
32:49.2 (3)
+0:03.2 +0:39.0
LEGKOV Alexander +1:12.7
35:03.9 (16)
+1:20.1
34:19.2 (18)
+0:04.9
32:12.7 (2)
+0:04.9 +0:52.5
COLOGNA Dario +1:29.8
31:58.1 (18)
+0:09.0
33:52.4 (5)
+1:20.8
35:12.0 (22)
+1:28.1
34:27.2 (21)
+0:09.0 +1:06.9
HEIKKINEN Matti +0:56.5
34:39.9 (12)
+0:12.0
34:03.2 (4)
+0:12.0 +0:34.2
BAJCICAK Martin +0:19.8
33:18.8 (3)
+0:47.1
32:54.9 (6)
+0:19.7 +0:33.4
CLARA Roland +0:32.4
31:00.7 (2)
+0:45.5
34:28.9 (10)
+0:31.3
34:22.6 (8)
+0:31.3 +0:36.4
VYLEGZHANIN Maxim +0:32.6
34:23.8 (9)
+1:52.6
34:51.6 (30)
+0:32.6 +1:12.6
PERL Curdin +0:33.8
31:02.1 (3)
+1:17.4
35:00.8 (13)
+1:35.8
35:27.1 (30)
+0:33.7 +1:09.0
NORTHUG Petter jr. +0:39.0
31:07.3 (5)
+1:24.6
35:08.1 (16)
+0:56.3
34:47.6 (13)
+1:37.1
34:36.2 (25)
+1:59.9
34:07.7 (30)
+0:39.0 +1:19.4
MORIGGL Thomas +0:58.0
31:26.3 (8)
+0:51.5
34:35.0 (11)
+0:51.5 +0:54.7
FREEMAN Kris +0:53.9
31:22.2 (7)
+0:53.9 +0:53.9
ANGERER Tobias +1:04.0
34:03.1 (10)
+1:31.7
33:39.5 (18)
+1:04.0 +1:17.8
DUVILLARD Robin +1:04.5
31:32.8 (11)
+1:35.1
35:18.6 (18)
+1:04.5 +1:19.8
KERSHAW Devon +1:09.5
31:37.8 (12)
+1:41.7
35:25.1 (21)
+1:20.6
35:11.8 (21)
+1:09.5 +1:23.9
JAKS Martin +1:23.2
31:51.5 (16)
+1:09.5
34:08.6 (12)
+1:09.5 +1:16.3
JAUHOJAERVI Sami +1:16.9
35:08.2 (18)
+1:58.9
34:57.9 (33)
+1:39.2
33:47.0 (22)
+1:16.9 +1:38.3
FISCHER Remo +1:17.0
31:45.3 (15)
+1:17.0 +1:17.0
PASINI Fabio +2:41.3
36:24.7 (33)
+1:17.6
35:08.8 (19)
+1:17.6 +1:59.4
MANIFICAT Maurice +1:56.8
32:25.1 (22)
+1:19.0
35:02.5 (15)
+1:19.0 +1:37.9
HOFER David +1:25.3
35:16.5 (25)
+1:25.2 +1:25.2
FILBRICH Jens +2:12.9
32:41.2 (27)
+1:39.4
35:22.8 (19)
+1:27.6
35:18.8 (26)
+1:36.0
34:35.0 (24)
+1:28.1
33:35.9 (16)
+1:27.6 +1:40.8
VELICHKO Yevgeniy +1:45.1
35:28.5 (23)
+1:33.2
35:24.4 (29)
+1:33.2 +1:39.1
DOLIDOVICH Sergei +1:40.9
33:48.7 (23)
+1:40.9 +1:40.9
HARVEY Alex +1:41.7
32:10.0 (20)
+2:34.1
36:17.5 (31)
+1:41.7 +2:07.8
TEICHMANN Axel +1:46.0
35:29.4 (24)
+1:49.5
35:40.7 (33)
+1:41.9
34:40.9 (27)
+1:41.9 +1:45.7
PERRILLAT Christophe +1:44.7
32:13.0 (21)
+2:23.6
35:22.6 (40)
+1:53.5
34:01.3 (28)
+1:44.7 +2:00.5
REHEMAA Aivar +1:48.0
35:39.2 (32)
+1:47.9 +1:47.9
CHERNOUSOV Ilia +2:43.3
36:26.7 (34)
+3:22.8
36:21.8 (51)
+1:48.3
33:56.1 (26)
+1:48.2 +2:38.1
NOUSIAINEN Ville +1:50.6
35:34.0 (27)
+2:03.3
35:02.3 (34)
+2:24.1
34:31.9 (40)
+1:50.5 +2:06.0
RENNEMO Kristian Tettli +2:01.1
32:29.4 (24)
+2:01.1 +2:01.1
CHEBOTKO Nikolay +3:07.6
36:51.0 (36)
+2:54.0
36:45.2 (42)
+2:13.2
35:12.2 (38)
+2:13.1 +2:44.9
JAPAROV Dmitriy +2:24.1
32:52.4 (29)
+2:24.1 +2:24.1
BESSMERTNYKH Alexander +2:25.2
32:53.5 (30)
+2:25.2 +2:25.2
ROENNING Eldar +3:03.3
36:54.5 (43)
+3:21.0
36:20.0 (50)
+2:47.6
34:55.4 (46)
+2:47.6 +3:03.9
MIRANDA Cyril +2:48.2
36:39.4 (41)
+2:48.2 +2:48.2
KARP Algo +3:13.6
37:04.8 (45)
+3:13.6 +3:13.6
Women Alpe Cermis only
Name 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 Best Average
JOHAUG Therese +0:00.0
33:14.4 (1)
+0:00.0
35:07.7 (1)
+1:16.4
35:22.7 (4)
+0:00.0 +0:25.4
SHEVCHENKO Valentina +2:06.8
35:21.2 (5)
+2:24.2
38:14.0 (30)
+0:44.3
35:52.0 (3)
+0:00.0
34:06.2 (1)
+0:05.4
34:29.9 (3)
+0:00.0 +1:04.1
STEIRA Kristin Stoermer +0:00.0
35:49.8 (1)
+0:08.7
35:16.4 (2)
+0:55.3
35:01.5 (2)
+0:01.4
34:25.9 (2)
+0:00.0 +0:16.3
ROPONEN Riitta-Liisa +2:49.2
36:03.6 (13)
+0:03.0
35:52.8 (2)
+1:07.9
36:15.6 (7)
+1:29.1
35:35.3 (8)
+0:03.0 +1:22.3
KOWALCZYK Justyna +1:59.3
35:13.7 (4)
+0:25.0
36:14.8 (4)
+0:47.1
35:54.8 (4)
+2:12.1
36:18.3 (18)
+1:08.5
35:33.0 (13)
+0:25.0 +1:18.4
SAARINEN Aino- Kaisa +3:44.6
36:59.0 (21)
+0:55.6
36:45.5 (7)
+1:54.7
37:02.4 (14)
+2:56.7
37:02.9 (25)
+0:55.6 +2:22.9
HAAG Anna +0:58.4
36:06.1 (6)
+0:58.4 +0:58.4
BOEHLER Stefanie +1:10.8
36:18.5 (8)
+1:17.3
35:23.5 (5)
+1:16.4
35:40.9 (15)
+1:10.8 +1:14.8
KRISTOFFERSEN Marthe +1:53.9
35:08.3 (3)
+1:14.5
37:04.3 (11)
+1:14.5 +1:34.2
ZELLER Katrin +2:20.8
35:35.2 (7)
+1:17.0
37:06.9 (13)
+2:32.8
37:40.5 (24)
+1:24.9
35:31.2 (6)
+1:17.0 +1:53.9
BJOERGEN Marit +3:55.4
39:03.1 (28)
+1:20.0
35:44.6 (16)
+1:20.0 +2:37.7
JANECKOVA Ivana +4:06.4
37:20.8 (25)
+1:27.6
37:17.5 (16)
+3:27.7
37:33.9 (31)
+1:27.6 +3:00.6
KALLA Charlotte +2:47.1
36:01.5 (12)
+1:30.7
35:36.9 (9)
+1:30.7 +2:08.8
HUGUE Coraline +2:07.9
37:57.7 (24)
+2:07.8 +2:07.8
NYVLTOVA Eva +3:51.9
37:06.3 (22)
+2:09.0
37:58.8 (25)
+2:09.0 +3:00.4
LAHTEENMAKI Krista +2:12.7
35:27.1 (6)
+2:12.6 +2:12.6
LARSEN Lisa +2:16.5
38:06.3 (27)
+2:16.5 +2:16.5
RYDQVIST Maria +2:26.2
35:40.6 (8)
+2:26.1 +2:26.1
JACOBSEN Astrid Uhrenholdt +2:42.0
35:56.4 (10)
+2:42.0 +2:42.0
BROCARD Elisa +2:44.3
38:34.1 (32)
+2:44.2 +2:44.2
JEAN Aurore +3:37.5
36:51.9 (15)
+3:37.5 +3:37.5
OESTBERG Ingvild Flugstad +3:41.8
36:56.2 (18)
+3:41.7 +3:41.7
FESSEL Nicole +3:47.0
38:11.5 (39)
+3:47.0 +3:47.0
SMUTNA Katerina +4:18.8
39:26.5 (29)
+3:49.4
37:55.6 (34)
+3:49.3 +4:04.1
RANDALL Kikkan +3:53.2
37:07.6 (23)
+3:53.1 +3:53.1
MATROSSOVA Marina +3:55.2
39:45.0 (38)
+3:55.1 +3:55.1
JEZERSEK Barbara +4:27.0
38:33.2 (39)
+4:37.7
39:02.2 (43)
+4:26.9 +4:32.3
BARTHELEMY Laure +4:46.5
38:00.9 (28)
+4:46.5 +4:46.5
IVANOVA Julia +5:39.7
40:47.4 (36)
+4:47.2
38:53.4 (41)
+4:47.2 +5:13.4
DE MARTIN TOPRANIN Virginia +4:55.5
38:09.9 (29)
+4:55.5 +4:55.5
SHAIDUROVA Larisa +5:03.6
38:18.0 (30)
+5:03.5 +5:03.5
Set up your predictions

Stage 8 Preview: Mass start Val di Fiemme

Posted by Jan Kocbach, 07 Jan 2012@0:13


The second last stage in this 6th edition of Tour de Ski is a tough classic mass start race in Val di Fiemme. There will again be a lot of bonus seconds to fight for: 90 seconds in the men’s race and 45 seconds in the women’s race. This race will decide the starting order for the final race up Alpe Cermis.

Note! It is a really tough stage today with nearly twice as much uphill as in the final climb up Alpe Cermis tomorrow for the men – 5 laps, 180 meter uphill in each = 900 meter! And 90 bonus seconds = very decisive stage.

Bonus seconds for intermediate points will be 15, 12, 10, 8, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 seconds for the first ten athletes at a designated intermediate point. The top three of the Stage will in addition get bonus seconds (15, 10 and 5 seconds).

In the women’s class there is a tight fight between Justyna Kowalczyk (POL) and Marit Bjørgen (NOR) for the overall lead. In the men’s class Dario Cologna (SUI) looked very strong on the Queen Stage from Cortina to Toblach and has now a clear lead in the overall Tour. Still nothing is decided – the Val di Fiemme mass start race can change everything!

Men

In the tables below the results from the second last stage of the 5 previous editions of the Tour de Ski are summarized (in 2007 it was a longer 30 km race) – including only skiers who participate in this edition of the Tour. As you can see there have been four different winners: Eldar Rønning in 2007, Lukas Bauer in 2010, Petter Northug in 2011 and Axel Teichmann in 2009. All four are competing in this edition of Tour de Ski – and all three have shown excellent shape in the races so far. Along with overall leader Dario Cologna they are favourites for this mass start stage.

Women

Women results are also summarized in a table below.  Kowalczyk won last year, but the winners from 2007-2010 – Virpi Kuitunen and Petra Majdic do not participate this year.

In addition to Kowalczyk, Marit Bjørgen is the big favourite in this race with 4 stage victories in a row. Therese Johaug will also want to try to get some bonus points in this race – but she has to be very strong to get away from the field and win the race.

Statistics Men starters
Name 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
ROENNING Eldar +0:14.5
55:33.7 (12)
+0:21.8
1:00:39.7 (15)
+0:00.0
1:21:30.0 (1)
BAUER Lukas +0:10.5
57:27.7 (13)
+0:00.0
59:03.5 (1)
+1:16.5
56:35.7 (25)
+0:07.5
1:00:25.3 (7)
NORTHUG Petter jr. +0:00.0
57:17.2 (1)
+0:31.5
59:35.0 (2)
+0:06.7
55:25.9 (8)
+0:20.3
1:00:38.2 (13)
+0:11.1
1:21:41.1 (8)
TEICHMANN Axel +0:32.3
59:35.8 (3)
+0:00.0
55:19.2 (1)
+0:05.5
1:00:23.3 (5)
JAUHOJAERVI Sami +1:51.5
1:00:55.0 (28)
+0:00.3
55:19.5 (2)
+2:52.5
1:03:10.3 (46)
+0:01.6
1:21:31.6 (3)
CHEBOTKO Nikolay +1:16.5
1:00:20.1 (17)
+0:01.3
55:20.5 (3)
+3:13.9
1:03:31.7 (48)
COLOGNA Dario +0:01.8
57:19.0 (2)
+0:33.3
59:36.8 (4)
+0:01.8
55:21.0 (4)
+2:50.0
1:03:07.8 (44)
KERSHAW Devon +0:02.2
57:19.4 (3)
+1:34.5
1:00:38.0 (22)
+2:01.3
57:20.5 (37)
JAKS Martin +0:02.6
57:19.8 (4)
+0:43.5
1:01:01.3 (27)
HARVEY Alex +0:02.9
57:20.1 (5)
+0:58.0
1:00:01.6 (13)
CLARA Roland +0:03.7
57:20.9 (6)
+2:23.4
1:01:26.9 (32)
+0:44.6
56:03.8 (23)
FILBRICH Jens +0:03.9
57:21.1 (7)
+0:48.0
59:51.5 (10)
+0:04.0
55:23.2 (7)
+0:25.1
1:00:43.0 (19)
+0:15.3
1:21:45.4 (11)
VYLEGZHANIN Maxim +0:03.9
55:23.1 (6)
+1:31.1
1:01:49.0 (34)
ANGERER Tobias +0:10.1
1:00:28.0 (9)
+0:04.1
1:21:34.2 (5)
PERL Curdin +0:04.5
57:21.7 (8)
+1:28.1
1:00:31.7 (19)
+1:54.8
57:14.0 (31)
NOUSIAINEN Ville +3:22.6
1:00:39.8 (31)
+1:37.4
1:00:40.9 (24)
+0:12.7
1:00:30.6 (12)
+1:40.2
1:23:10.2 (21)
REHEMAA Aivar +0:13.8
55:33.0 (10)
LEGKOV Alexander +3:18.6
58:37.8 (46)
+0:36.5
1:00:54.4 (23)
+0:13.8
1:21:43.9 (10)
MIRANDA Cyril +0:19.6
57:36.8 (16)
+2:22.1
1:01:25.6 (30)
+1:57.7
57:16.9 (35)
DI CENTA Giorgio +0:20.2
57:37.4 (17)
+1:28.5
1:00:32.0 (21)
+0:43.6
56:02.8 (21)
+0:22.1
1:00:40.0 (16)
+3:42.0
1:25:12.0 (36)
CHERNOUSOV Ilia +1:28.4
1:00:31.9 (20)
+4:40.5
1:04:58.3 (56)
+0:42.1
1:22:12.2 (14)
KARP Algo +2:15.5
1:01:19.0 (29)
+0:43.2
56:02.4 (20)
HELLNER Marcus +1:53.4
59:10.6 (23)
+0:53.6
59:57.2 (11)
+1:47.0
1:02:04.8 (38)
+7:11.5
1:28:41.5 (55)
VELICHKO Yevgeniy +1:09.5
1:00:13.0 (14)
+1:46.5
57:05.7 (28)
BAJCICAK Martin +1:29.7
1:01:47.6 (33)
+6:05.6
1:27:35.6 (49)
BABIKOV Ivan +2:29.7
59:46.9 (27)
+1:37.6
1:00:41.2 (25)
+4:51.9
1:00:11.1 (47)
PASINI Fabio +3:52.6
1:02:56.1 (40)
+1:45.9
57:05.1 (26)
HOFER David +1:46.8
57:06.0 (30)
MORIGGL Thomas +1:47.1
59:04.3 (20)
+2:56.4
1:01:59.9 (39)
JAPAROV Dmitriy +1:52.0
59:09.2 (22)
HEIKKINEN Matti +3:37.7
1:00:54.9 (34)
+2:22.4
1:01:25.9 (31)
+1:55.6
57:14.8 (32)
FISCHER Remo +1:56.9
59:14.1 (24)
DUVILLARD Robin +1:58.3
59:15.5 (25)
+4:49.8
1:03:53.3 (41)
PERRILLAT Christophe +4:21.7
1:01:38.9 (35)
+2:22.8
1:02:40.6 (42)
+4:23.8
1:25:53.8 (41)
MANIFICAT Maurice +2:31.6
59:48.8 (28)
+2:55.7
1:01:59.2 (37)
RENNEMO Kristian Tettli +3:07.1
1:00:24.3 (29)
BESSMERTNYKH Alexander +3:27.0
1:00:44.2 (32)
DOLIDOVICH Sergei +4:35.0
1:26:05.0 (43)
FREEMAN Kris +8:05.5
1:05:22.7 (38)
Statistics Women starters
Name 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
KOWALCZYK Justyna +0:00.0
30:27.6 (1)
+0:15.5
34:21.9 (22)
+0:53.2
31:03.5 (15)
+1:10.4
33:58.5 (26)
+1:21.3
43:23.5 (5)
KALLA Charlotte +2:16.2
32:43.8 (15)
+0:04.5
32:52.6 (2)
NYVLTOVA Eva +3:09.6
33:37.2 (23)
+0:04.5
34:10.9 (8)
ZELLER Katrin +1:28.1
31:55.7 (8)
+0:06.0
34:12.4 (10)
+0:47.5
30:57.8 (11)
+0:05.5
32:53.6 (5)
+3:24.3
45:26.5 (31)
JANECKOVA Ivana +4:03.5
34:31.1 (31)
+0:06.1
34:12.6 (12)
+1:24.4
34:12.5 (32)
JOHAUG Therese +0:06.3
30:33.9 (2)
+0:37.1
30:47.4 (9)
+0:29.4
33:17.5 (15)
ROPONEN Riitta-Liisa +2:03.8
32:31.4 (14)
+0:07.9
34:14.3 (16)
+1:41.2
31:51.5 (23)
+0:37.2
33:25.3 (20)
LARSEN Lisa +0:08.5
34:15.0 (17)
STEIRA Kristin Stoermer +0:09.4
34:15.8 (18)
+0:39.0
30:49.3 (10)
+0:13.0
33:01.1 (9)
+2:40.7
44:42.9 (20)
SMUTNA Katerina +2:27.5
32:55.1 (18)
+0:14.1
34:20.6 (21)
+1:07.5
31:17.8 (16)
+0:20.5
33:08.6 (12)
+4:58.6
47:00.8 (41)
SAARINEN Aino- Kaisa +1:14.0
31:41.6 (5)
+0:29.4
34:35.8 (27)
+0:20.5
30:30.8 (3)
+0:59.2
33:47.3 (23)
SHEVCHENKO Valentina +3:26.3
33:53.9 (24)
+0:20.7
34:27.2 (24)
+0:49.3
30:59.6 (13)
+0:32.9
33:21.0 (17)
+1:40.6
43:42.8 (11)
BJOERGEN Marit +0:33.0
30:43.3 (5)
+1:06.5
43:08.7 (3)
KRISTOFFERSEN Marthe +1:25.1
31:52.7 (7)
+0:34.1
34:40.6 (30)
+1:28.5
31:38.8 (21)
BOEHLER Stefanie +0:35.6
30:45.9 (7)
+1:30.5
34:18.7 (34)
+1:40.3
43:42.5 (10)
HAAG Anna +1:59.3
32:26.9 (13)
+0:36.5
30:46.8 (8)
BROCARD Elisa +0:45.4
34:51.8 (35)
MATROSSOVA Marina +1:01.2
35:07.7 (38)
IVANOVA Julia +1:49.3
31:59.6 (27)
+1:23.2
34:11.3 (31)
OESTBERG Ingvild Flugstad +1:33.3
32:00.9 (10)
JACOBSEN Astrid Uhrenholdt +1:53.8
32:21.4 (12)
+1:50.1
32:00.4 (29)
LAHTEENMAKI Krista +2:16.8
32:44.4 (16)
BARTHELEMY Laure +2:31.9
32:59.5 (19)
NISKANEN Kerttu +2:33.0
33:00.6 (20)
RYDQVIST Maria +2:54.1
33:21.7 (21)
KYLLOENEN Anne +2:55.2
33:22.8 (22)
JEZERSEK Barbara +3:24.8
36:12.9 (44)
+7:10.1
49:12.3 (48)
RANDALL Kikkan +3:54.8
34:22.4 (27)
JEAN Aurore +4:01.1
34:28.7 (29)
DE MARTIN TOPRANIN Virginia +4:01.7
34:29.3 (30)
HUGUE Coraline +4:03.9
38:10.3 (44)
FESSEL Nicole +4:11.3
46:13.5 (37)
SHAIDUROVA Larisa +5:59.2
36:26.8 (36)
Video: Technical description of the course

XC-Predictions: Stage 7 results

Posted by Jan Kocbach, 05 Jan 2012@16:30

One of the easiest predictions so far – 6 people had the top 3 men and women correct! Best of all: Mattias who took 866 points. Northug_Viker_Ner_Sig, Wally Wombat, Les Gens Parka Grande, Christiane and SK were the others hitting the Jackpot today.

In the overall Roar keeps his lead – now only 43 points ahead of Les Gens Parka Grande. Two stages left in addition to the overall – nothing is decided yet!

Tour de Ski Queen Stage 2012: Analysis

Posted by Jan Kocbach, 05 Jan 2012@15:20

Several big fields chased Dario Cologna (SUI) in the Queen Stage of Tour de Ski 2011/2012 from Cortina to Toblach as you can see in the above illustration. However, Cologna did impressive work alone at the front while the followers stopped cooperating, and the gap to Northug and the followers never got much below 1:30 in the end.

The illustration above is a graphical illustration of the race development based on the split times. A line which is flat means that a skier has the same time as Cologna for the split. A line which goes down represents slower speed – a line which goes up represents faster speed.

Studying the illustration, you can see how Petter Northug (NOR) lost more than a minute to Cologna before the first split at 7.7 km (curve falling steeply) – getting caught up Legkov (RUS). As discussed in relation to the GPS-data below, Northug actually caught up with Cologna first, but then was punished for his tough start and “waited out” Legkov.

Stopped cooperating

The strongest skiers in today’s field were the group formed by Hellner (SWE), Manificat (FRA) and Kershaw (CAN). They steadily gained time on Cologna at front up to 20 km – having gained more than a minute when they caught Northug and Legkov around 20 km. Then they slowed down to the speed of Northug/Legkov – and if they had not stopped cooperating when catching Northug/Legkov they would probably have managed to gain even more time on Cologna. However, as in last year’s edition, it looks like the big group stopped cooperating in the last third of the race.

Cologna versus Northug

- I thought that we would ski togheter – and that was also the plan. But I felt really good and saw that Petter was tired, so I tried to ski my own race, Dario Cologna said to NRK after the race.

- I was surprised that I got away from Northug, but I had a very good day today.

The GPS-data is missing for significant parts of the course, but you can still see how Northug started fast and caught Cologna . However, the start was to tough for Northug, who lost a lot of time over a short distance between 4.5 km and 7 km “waiting” for Legkov (dashed parts of the line are areas without GPS-coverage):

- My body was not great today, and Cologna was strong. So I could not join Cologna, and had to wait for Legkov. I think it was better to let Cologna go at that point and wait for Legkov and the group behind, Northug said to NRK after the race.

Manificat versus Cologna

Maurice Manificat was one of the big winners of the day with the second best time behind Marcus Hellner – gaining nearly 1:30 on Dario Cologna. The GPS curve of Manificat versus Cologna shows how Manificat gained a minute on Cologna until 20 km, and then kept the pace for the rest of the course (Hellner’s GPS did not work – he was another 10 seconds faster than Manificat).

Three big groups

It is also very interesting to take a look at the complete field – seeing how nearly no single skiers except for Cologna survived on their own their own throughout the race - just as last year. The rest of the skiers fighting in the top packed themselves into only three big groups.

Note! Lukas Bauer fell after approximate 10 km, broke his pole and lost contact with the group. Vylegzhanin was forced to leave the group as well, and ended up skiing together with Bauer.

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