Race Preview: Tour de Ski Pursuit Oberhof

Posted by Jan Kocbach, 29 Dec 2012@17:49


Petter Northug and Kikkan Randall start out first – but will they come first to the finish? The second stage of Tour de Ski 2012/2013 is the 15/10 km Handicap start in Oberhof – based on the Prologue results. The Prologue results were tight – but the 15, 10 and 5 bonus seconds for the top three skiers makes the chase a bit more interesting…

Note! We are predicting the order the skiers get to the finish at Stage 2 – not the individual times for Stage 2!

Results Tour de Ski Prologue Predictions

Magnus Mellbye Larsen is in the lead in the Tour de Ski WhoWins predictions after hitting the jackpot with the complete women podium correct – and also the correct winner and third placed in the men’s class. Congratulations! But it is still tight in the top, and with 6 more races to go in addition to the overall nothing is yet decided. Full results are available here – and overall Tour de Ski prediction results here.

Men: Another Northug show?

In the men’s class the four top overall Tour favourites – Petter Northug, Marcus Hellner, Alexander Legkov and Dario Cologna – are already to be found in the top four places. Northug’s lead down to Cologna in fourth is  a seemingly enormous 25 seconds. However, based on previous editions of Tour de Ski, it is to be expected that these gaps are too small to be decisive for the Pursuit results.

- I plan to take it easy in the start, and will probably be caught by the others pretty fast, Northug said to the Norwegian TV channel NRK after the race.

- Then it will be everybody against everybody – and a tough fight for the first places, Northug predicts.

Just look at how Teichmann surprisingly got away in the last curve in last year’s Oberhof Pursuit

Going another 25 seconds down on the results list from Cologna, you get to number 60 on the start list! With 60 skiers starting in 50 seconds, there will probably be a group of 30-40 skiers or more forming before half of the race is done as in previous editions of Tour de Ski.

Thus a sprint finish is a probably outcome – with the early starters saving some energy. Looking back at previous years, Northug, Cologna, Legkov, Kershaw and Teichmann are the ones who have regularly been up there – with Ilia Chernousov, Maxim Vylegzhanin, Matti Heikkinen and Lukas Bauer also shown strong results. Except for Teichmann, Kershaw and Heikkinen, all of these skiers have shown excellent shape this year, and should all be counted among the favourites. Northug is, however, the big favourite after his excellent Prologue – but everything can happen in the end of such a tight chasing start. Just look at how Teichmann surprisingly got away in the last curve in last year’s Oberhof Pursuit…

Women: Kowalczyk showing her strength again?

In the women’s class, it is a lot more open! Can Justyna Kowalczyk get away from the others alone – as she has done so often before?

Kowalczyk will probably race full speed from the start, trying to catch up with the skiers in front and get a gap on Johaug

In the Prologue, Kowalczyk lost 14 seconds to leader Kikkan Randall – with Charlotte Kalla squeezed in between them. One of the other big overall favourites, Therese Johaug, is 18 seconds down from Kowalczyk. This means that Kowalczyk will probably race full speed from the start, trying to catch up with the skiers in front and get a gap on Johaug and the others racing from behind. While the Prologue was skied in skating, the Pursuit is skied in Kowalczyk’s favourite style – classic.

- I am uncertain about my shape in skating, but I know I am very strong in classic style, Justyna Kowalczyk said to NRK before the Prologue.

Looking at historical results, Kowalczyk has three victories in a row on the Oberhof Pursuit – and is clearly the big favourite this year again. Johaug caught up a lot of time on Kowalczyk last year – finishing second. The Finns – Saarinen and Lahteenmaaki – have consistently races in the top 6 the last year – but are they strong enough this year? Kikkan Randall and Charlotte Kalla have not had their best results in the Oberhof Pursuit earlier, but they should both be counted among the favourites after excellent Prologue results.

Set up your predictions

Set up your predictions and see results here:

Men – historical results
Name 2011
Oberhof
2011-12-30
15 km C Pursuit		 2011
Oberhof
2011-01-01
15 km C Pursuit		 2010
Oberhof
2010-01-02
15 km C Pursuit		 2008
Oberhof
2008-12-28
15 km C Pursuit
COLOGNA Dario 3rd 1st 12th 1st
NORTHUG Petter jr. 2nd 5th 1st 9th
TEICHMANN Axel 1st 10th 6th 2nd
KERSHAW Devon 15th 2nd 10th 3rd
LEGKOV Alexander 4th 3rd 15th 37th
VYLEGZHANIN Maxim 22nd 2nd 41st
HEIKKINEN Matti 14th 7th 3rd 33rd
CHERNOUSOV Ilia 8th 4th 37th
BAUER Lukas 7th 13th 4th 15th
JAUHOJAERVI Sami 13th 6th 7th 4th
ROENNING Eldar 5th 22nd 25th
DI CENTA Giorgio 6th 11th 20th 8th
ANGERER Tobias 12th 5th 5th
FILBRICH Jens 10th 17th 8th 22nd
NOUSIAINEN Ville 19th 8th 24th
RICKARDSSON Daniel 20th 15th 14th 10th
GAILLARD Jean Marc 21st 14th 17th 7th
HARVEY Alex 27th 9th 27th
TURYSHEV Sergey 9th
HELLNER Marcus 29th 21st 9th 24th
MAE Jaak 49th 6th
Women – historical results
Name 2011
Oberhof
2011-12-30
10 km C Pursuit		 2011
Oberhof
2011-01-01
10 km C Pursuit		 2010
Oberhof
2010-01-02
10 km C Pursuit		 2008
Oberhof
2008-12-28
10 km C Pursuit
KOWALCZYK Justyna 1st 1st 1st 3rd
LAHTEENMAKI Krista 5th 2nd
JOHAUG Therese 2nd 9th 17th 14th
SAARINEN Aino- Kaisa 4th 4th 2nd 5th
BJOERGEN Marit 3rd 2nd
LONGA Marianna 3rd 7th 8th
STEIRA Kristin Stoermer 15th 3rd 17th
MAJDIC Petra 5th 10th 6th
KUITUNEN Virpi 4th 1st
ROPONEN Riitta-Liisa 16th 6th 13th 9th
FOLLIS Arianna 8th 5th 4th
KALLA Charlotte 11th 7th
RANDALL Kikkan 6th 22nd
ISHIDA Masako 10th 16th
NISKANEN Kerttu 7th 26th
KOROSTELEVA Natalia 21st 6th
TCHEKALEVA Yulia 10th 18th
ZELLER Katrin 9th 30th 27th 19th
BOEHLER Stefanie 8th 31st 36th 29th
SKOFTERUD Vibeke W 8th
SAVIALOVA Olga 9th 18th
MURANEN Pirjo 11th 7th
SACHENBACHER -STEHLE Evi 15th 10th

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