Race Preview: Short classic Toblach stage
The short classic style race in Toblach was a new addition to the Tour de Ski last year. This year it has been put after the long pursuit race, and will therefore become more important for the overall standings – every second gained here will be important for the Final Climb! The race length is around 30% longer than a typical prologue – 3.3 km for the women and 5 km for the men.
- Set up predictions for Tour de Ski Stage 5, Toblach, before the first start at Friday January 4th 11:15 CET
- Results Stage 4 predictions. Congratulations to fjodd who won with 811 points – 4 points ahead of Cupcake. In the overall Johan has taken the lead ahead of Team Northug – but the lead is only 15 points.
- Analysis Tour de Ski Queen stage and Women’s 15 km pursuit in Toblach – with interactive illustrations
Even if the race is short, this should not be dismissed as an unimportant stage in the Tour. With a tough course (see the men’s race profile above – the women further down) and 15/10/5 bonus seconds to the three first skiers, a skier with a bad day can easily loose up to 30 seconds like Northug did last year.
The course is of the “classic” type – with “long, beautiful inviting uphill slopes” as Anna Haag put it last year. When comparing to other races in the World Cup, the Falun prologue of 3.3 km / 2.5 km in classic style is the closest to compare with. Results from the Falun prologue and the Toblach classic races the two last years (longer in 2010) are included below.
Men: Important bonus seconds!
Northug has previously shown that he can master this type of race very well
Last year Alexander Legkov took a somewhat surprising victory in the 5 km classic race in Toblach – with Eldar Rønning (not starting this year) in second and Dario Cologna in third only 2 seconds down. Petter Northug had a bad day, and finished on a 12th place – 14 seconds down from Legkov – 29 seconds when counting in the bonus seconds. However, Northug has previously shown that he can master this type of race very well – with 2nd and 4th places in the somewhat shorter classic Falun Prologue. Vylegzhanin can be very strong in these short classic races – finishing only 11th last year, but with two 3rd places in the Falun Prologue.
Another strong skier in this type of race is Lukas Bauer (4th last year) – can he wake up for real on this short classic race? Daniel Rickardsson could also do well here, although the race might be just a little bit short for the Swede.
Skiers often struggling in this kind of race include Marcus Hellner and Alex Harvey – they need to work hard to limit their losses if they want to fight for the Top 5 in the overall…
Women: Another Kowalczyk show?
The only one beating Kowalczyk in these short classic races the last years has been Marit Bjørgen
While Justyna Kowalczyk had big trouble in the Toblach 15 km skating race, the Polish superwomen looks unbeatable in classic technique these days – at least when Marit Bjørgen is not on the start line. The only one beating Kowalczyk in these short classic races the last years has been Marit Bjørgen – who is not on the start in this year’s Tour. In last year’s 3 km classic race, Bjørgen and Kowalczyk crushed the field – Bjørgen winning 4 seconds ahead of Kowalczyk with Astrid Uhrenholdt Jacobsen in third 15 seconds down (25 seconds including the bonus seconds). The German’s Nicole Fessel and Stefanie Böhler finished 4th and 5th with Therese Johaug in 6th, 21 seconds down. This will be a perfect opportunity for Kowalczyk to gain some valuable seconds on Johaug and the rest of the field. But also Uhrenholdt Jacobsen can use this excellent opportunity to get closer to the Top 4.
Randall and Kyllönen?
Kristin Størmer Steira, Kikkan Randall, Denise Herrmann and Anne Kyllönen have all struggled in these short classic races before – but they have all shown exceptional good shape in classic lately, and it is to expected that a least one or two of them will shine on the short Toblach classic race – maybe all four? My bet is on Randall and Kyllönen.
The short classic races are also not Charlotte Kalla’s favourite, but she has earlier shown that she can do well if she has good skis and good shape – so she might even mix in on the fight for bonus seconds. There is no reason to doubt that Kalla is in top shape!
Race profile Women:
Men starters – historical results
| Name | 2012 Toblach 2012-01-03 5 km C |
2011 Falun 2011-03-18 3.3 km C |
2010 Falun 2010-03-19 3.3 km C Prologue |
2010 Cortina – Toblach 2010-01-07 10 km C |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEGKOV Alexander |  |
+0:00.0 13:49.5 (1) |
+0:18.3 11:10.1 (14) |
||
| CHERNOUSOV Ilia | |
+0:04.0 13:53.5 (5) |
+0:00.0 10:51.8 (1) |
+0:35.6 10:30.9 (38) |
+1:02.0 24:16.5 (23) |
| COLOGNA Dario |  |
+0:02.0 13:51.5 (3) |
+0:22.0 11:13.8 (16) |
+0:00.0 9:55.3 (1) |
+0:35.5 23:50.0 (8) |
| NORTHUG Petter jr. |  |
+0:13.8 14:03.3 (12) |
+0:02.9 10:54.7 (2) |
+0:10.0 10:05.3 (4) |
+0:06.2 23:20.7 (3) |
| VYLEGZHANIN Maxim | |
+0:13.2 14:02.7 (11) |
+0:04.2 10:56.0 (3) |
+0:06.0 10:01.3 (3) |
|
| BAUER Lukas |  |
+0:03.5 13:53.0 (4) |
+0:12.1 11:03.9 (9) |
+0:17.2 10:12.5 (14) |
+0:01.7 23:16.2 (2) |
| RICKARDSSON Daniel |  |
+0:37.5 14:27.0 (29) |
+0:13.9 11:05.7 (11) |
+0:14.4 10:09.7 (11) |
+0:00.0 23:14.5 (1) |
| TEICHMANN Axel |  |
+0:06.0 13:55.5 (6) |
+0:10.4 10:05.7 (5) |
+0:13.4 23:27.9 (4) |
|
| JAPAROV Dmitriy | |
+0:09.5 13:59.0 (7) |
|||
| HEIKKINEN Matti |  |
+0:26.6 14:16.1 (22) |
+0:11.9 11:03.7 (8) |
+0:20.8 10:16.1 (22) |
+0:28.5 23:43.1 (6) |
| TURYSHEV Sergey | |
+0:10.1 13:59.6 (9) |
|||
| PASINI Fabio |  |
+0:12.3 14:01.8 (10) |
+1:05.4 24:19.9 (29) |
||
| DI CENTA Giorgio | |
+0:20.0 14:09.5 (16) |
+0:30.5 11:22.3 (27) |
+0:30.7 10:26.0 (34) |
+0:31.5 23:46.1 (7) |
| FILBRICH Jens | |
+0:18.4 14:07.9 (15) |
+0:34.1 11:25.9 (31) |
+0:46.4 24:00.9 (10) |
|
| BESSMERTNYKH Alexander | |
+0:17.5 14:07.0 (14) |
|||
| GAILLARD Jean Marc |  |
+0:31.0 14:20.5 (26) |
+0:21.7 11:13.5 (15) |
+0:12.5 10:07.8 (9) |
+0:53.3 24:07.8 (15) |
| JOENSSON Emil | |
+0:47.2 14:36.7 (42) |
+0:12.2 11:04.0 (10) |
+0:18.9 10:14.2 (18) |
|
| HELLNER Marcus | |
+0:51.1 14:40.6 (48) |
+0:11.9 10:07.2 (7) |
+0:25.5 23:40.0 (5) |
|
| HARVEY Alex |  |
+0:37.5 14:27.0 (29) |
+0:28.2 11:20.0 (25) |
+0:20.2 10:15.5 (21) |
+0:42.4 23:56.9 (9) |
| ANGERER Tobias | |
+0:56.3 14:45.8 (56) |
+0:30.6 11:22.4 (28) |
+0:15.2 10:10.5 (12) |
|
| OLSSON Johan | |
+0:13.2 10:08.5 (10) |
Women starters – historical results
| Name | 2012 Toblach 2012-01-03 3 km C |
2011 Falun 2011-03-18 2.5 km C |
2010 Falun 2010-03-19 2.5 km C Prologue |
2010 Cortina – Toblach 2010-01-07 5 km C |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KOWALCZYK Justyna |  |
+0:03.8 10:53.1 (2) |
+0:10.6 9:12.2 (2) |
+0:00.0 8:07.9 (1) |
+0:00.0 12:37.6 (1) |
| JACOBSEN Astrid Uhrenholdt | |
+0:15.0 11:04.3 (3) |
+0:26.1 9:27.8 (9) |
||
| JOHAUG Therese | |
+0:21.1 11:10.4 (6) |
+0:12.9 9:14.5 (3) |
+0:57.3 9:05.2 (28) |
+1:09.4 13:47.0 (29) |
| FESSEL Nicole | |
+0:17.0 11:06.2 (4) |
+0:24.5 9:26.1 (6) |
||
| BOEHLER Stefanie | |
+0:17.1 11:06.4 (5) |
+0:54.5 9:56.1 (30) |
+0:38.3 8:46.2 (15) |
|
| SAARINEN Aino- Kaisa | |
+0:33.0 11:22.3 (15) |
+0:26.5 9:28.1 (11) |
+0:32.6 8:40.5 (9) |
+0:11.6 12:49.2 (2) |
| HAAG Anna | |
+0:38.0 11:27.2 (23) |
+0:17.4 9:19.0 (4) |
+0:28.9 8:36.8 (5) |
|
| KALLA Charlotte | |
+0:34.0 11:23.2 (17) |
+0:25.6 9:27.3 (8) |
+0:16.9 8:24.8 (3) |
|
| KRISTOFFERSEN Marthe | |
+0:25.0 11:14.2 (9) |
+0:28.1 9:29.7 (12) |
+2:12.4 10:20.3 (47) |
+0:35.4 13:13.0 (8) |
| LAHTEENMAKI Krista | |
+0:23.1 11:12.4 (7) |
+0:41.4 9:43.0 (18) |
||
| ZELLER Katrin | |
+0:30.0 11:19.3 (12) |
+0:26.3 9:27.9 (10) |
+0:47.4 8:55.3 (21) |
+0:36.9 13:14.5 (9) |
| SMUTNA Katerina |  |
+0:23.9 11:13.1 (8) |
+0:55.0 9:56.6 (32) |
+0:41.8 8:49.7 (19) |
+0:57.5 13:35.1 (23) |
| DOTSENKO Anastasia | |
+0:26.3 11:15.5 (10) |
+0:48.9 9:50.5 (23) |
||
| STEIRA Kristin Stoermer | |
+0:38.6 11:27.9 (24) |
+0:35.3 9:36.9 (14) |
+0:52.7 9:00.6 (26) |
+0:25.6 13:03.2 (4) |
| NISKANEN Kerttu | |
+0:33.4 11:22.6 (16) |
+0:36.1 9:37.7 (16) |
+0:36.5 8:44.4 (12) |
|
| MEDVEDEVA Polina | |
+0:27.4 11:16.6 (11) |
|||
| HERRMANN Denise | |
+0:30.4 11:19.6 (13) |
+1:27.6 10:29.3 (52) |
||
| ROPONEN Riitta-Liisa | |
+0:34.4 11:23.6 (18) |
+0:34.0 8:41.9 (10) |
+0:42.1 13:19.8 (14) |
|
| KOROSTELEVA Natalia | |
+0:34.4 11:23.6 (18) |
+0:51.5 8:59.4 (23) |
||
| IVANOVA Julia | |
+0:34.4 11:23.6 (18) |
+0:57.9 9:59.5 (35) |
||
| KYLLOENEN Anne | |
+0:35.9 11:25.1 (22) |
+0:50.5 9:52.1 (25) |
||
| DE MARTIN TOPRANIN Virginia | |
+0:34.8 11:24.0 (21) |
|||
| TCHEKALEVA Yulia | |
+0:43.9 9:45.5 (21) |
+0:29.6 13:07.2 (7) |
||
| RANDALL Kikkan |  |
+0:43.0 11:32.2 (29) |
+0:41.6 9:43.3 (19) |
+1:08.2 9:16.1 (36) |
|
| OESTBERG Ingvild Flugstad | |
+0:41.0 11:30.2 (25) |
+0:53.8 9:55.4 (29) |
+1:45.2 9:53.1 (46) |
|
| SHEVCHENKO Valentina |  |
+1:02.1 11:51.4 (39) |
+0:51.8 9:53.4 (26) |
+0:52.4 9:00.3 (25) |
+1:01.0 13:38.6 (24) |
| LINDBORG Sara | |
+0:51.8 9:53.4 (26) |
+0:52.9 13:30.5 (20) |
