The second last stage in this 7th edition of Tour de Ski is a tough classic mass start race in Val di Fiemme. With 60 bonus seconds to fight for in the men’s race and 45 seconds in the women’s race, this race will be decisive for the starting order in the final race up Alpe Cermis.

Alexander Legkov probably still has nightmares about the 2012 edition of the Val di Fiemme classic mass start – the Russian lost nearly 2 minutes

This race has been the playground of Petter Northug and Dario Cologna in the men’s class the last years – while Justyna Kowalczyk has dominated the women’s class. Alexander Legkov probably still has nightmares about the 2012 edition of the Val di Fiemme classic mass start – the Russian lost nearly 2 minutes and finished in 27th place after having very slippery skis and using too much power to fight for bonus seconds early in the race (earning him meager 16 bonus seconds).

Tactics, tactics, tactics …

In this type of race, bonus seconds at the intermediate points have proven to be even more important than the stage win in some cases – the challenge is to find the right balance between fighting for bonus points at intermediate points and getting too tired to stay with the leaders all the way to the finish. Who will go for intermediate bonus seconds? Will the Norwegian team try to help Petter Northug and Therese Johaug? Will there be cooperation in the strong Russian team in the men’s class?

There are three intermediate points with bonus points for the men and two for the women during the race. Bonus seconds for intermediate points will be 15, 12, 10, 8, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 seconds for the first ten athletes. In addition the top three of the Stage will get bonus seconds (15, 10 and 5 seconds). The schemes for the bonus seconds have changed the last years – this year there are 30 less bonus seconds to be achieved in the men’s class compared to the last two year.

• Set up predictions for Tour de Ski Stage 5, Val di Fiemme, before the women’s start Saturday January 5th 12:30 CET (the men start at 13:30 CET)
• Predictions are for individual times in the mass start race – excluding any bonus seconds
• In the short classic Val di Fiemme predictions, Siegerjc performed best ahead of Jossa (results here) – in the overall Team Northug has taken the lead (results).

Men

Of the ones of the start line in 2013, the five strongest historically seen in the Val di Fiemme classic style mass start race have been Cologna, Northug and Bauer in addition to the two Canadians Harvey and Kershaw (see tables below). However, Harvey and Kershaw did not impress on the short classic Val di Fiemme stage on Friday. On the other hand, Alexey Poltaranin raced a very impressive race on the short classic Val di Fiemme stage – and so did Russian Dmitriy Japarov and Swedish Calle Halfvarsson.

Challenge for the Russian overall favourites

The Val di Fiemme classic mass start has never been the best race for the Russians Alexander Legkov and Maxim Vylegzhanin.  Vylegzhanin had his best race in 2012, finishing 18th – 23 seconds down on Rønning – but with respectable 27 bonus seconds. Legkov has never performed well in this race – his best result the last 5 years being the 23rd place in 2008. Both did also have some trouble on the short Val di Fiemme classic stage. On the other hand, except for the fight for bonus seconds, this race should not be that different from the Oberhof classic pursuit race where Vylegzhanin and Legkov impressed!

Looking back at 2012, Eldar Rønning (not starting this year) took the stage win – but Dario Cologna (placed 3rd, 31 bonus seconds more than Rønning) and Petter Northug (placed 4th, 30 bonus seconds more) were the “actual winners” of the race in terms of the overall Tour standings. Lukas Bauer only finished 10th in 2012, but with 37 bonus seconds the Czech skier still had the third best result in terms of the overall standing.

In 2011, Petter Northug dominated the race – taking home all bonus seconds (a total of 90), and also taking the stage win. Dario Cologna actually did a better race than in 2012 and took 60 bonus seconds – finishing 2nd.  The bonus second scheme was different in 2011, though, with bonus seconds only to the top three at each intermediate point.

Women

Justyna Kowalczyk has been dominant in this race the last two years. Even with Marit Bjørgen on the start list Kowalczyk has taken all 45 bonus seconds and the victory both in 2012 and 2011. Therese Johaug has shown that she can perform well in this race (2nd spot and 30 bonus seconds in 2011), but she has also had bad races like the 11th place last year – 51 seconds down on Kowalczyk with only 7 bonus seconds.

A bad day may ruin the chances for an overall Top 5 place in the Tour de Ski 2012/2013 for any of them

The same goes for Charlotte Kalla – classic races are hit or miss for the Swede who impressed everybody at the Toblach pursuit race on Thursday. As long as the tracks are hard and well groomed like on the short classic Val di Fiemme stage, this should be possible for Kalla.

Historically, neither Størmer Steira, Randall, Jacobsen, Herrmann or Kyllönen have performed well in the Val di Fiemme mass start – all loosing significant time. However, they have all shown strong classic races lately – especially Jacobsen and Kyllönen, and depending on the tactics they choose they may all be up there fighting for both bonus seconds and a Top 3 finish. A bad day may ruin the chances for an overall Top 5 place in the Tour de Ski 2012/2013 for any of them… Also look out for the Finnish Krista Lähtenemäki and Aino-Kaisa Saarinen who have gradually raced better and better in the classic races in this Tour de Ski – Lähtenemäki finishing second in the short classic Val di Fiemme stage.

Set up your predictions

Set up your predictions and see results here:

• #1: Results Tour de Ski Prologue, 3/4 km Free, Oberhof
• #2: Results Tour de Ski Stage 2, 9/15 km Pursuit Classic, Oberhof
• #3:Results Tour de Ski Stage 3, Sprint Free, Val Mustair, Tschierv
• #4: Results Tour de Ski Stage 4, 35/15 km Pursuit Free, Toblach/Cortina
• #5: Results Tour de Ski Stage 5, 3/5 km Classic, Toblach/Cortina
• #6: Tour de Ski Stage 6, 10/15 km Classic, Val di Fiemme
• #7: Tour de Ski Stage 7, Final climb (Individual times)
• Overall XC-Prediction results – Tour de Ski 2012/2013 – updated after each stage

Men starters – historical results

Name		2012 Val di Fiemme 2012-01-07 20 km C Mst	2011 Val di Fiemme 2011-01-08 20 km C Mst	2010 Val di Fiemme 2010-01-09 20 km C Mst	2009 Val di Fiemme 2009-01-03 20 km C Mst	2008 Val di Fiemme 2008-01-05 20 km C Mst
NORTHUG Petter jr.		+0:01.5 1:00:03.7 (4) Bonus 55	+0:00.0 57:17.2 (1) Bonus 90	+0:31.5 59:35.0 (2) Bonus 65	+0:06.7 55:25.9 (8)	+0:20.3 1:00:38.2 (13)
HARVEY Alex		+0:01.1 1:00:03.3 (2) Bonus 27	+0:02.9 57:20.1 (5)	+0:58.0 1:00:01.6 (13)
COLOGNA Dario		+0:01.3 1:00:03.5 (3) Bonus 56	+0:01.8 57:19.0 (2) Bonus 60	+0:33.3 59:36.8 (4) Bonus 5	+0:01.8 55:21.0 (4) Bonus 30	+2:50.0 1:03:07.8 (44)
KERSHAW Devon		+0:03.2 1:00:05.4 (6) Bonus 23	+0:02.2 57:19.4 (3) Bonus 10	+1:34.5 1:00:38.0 (22)	+2:01.3 57:20.5 (37)
BAUER Lukas		+0:10.8 1:00:13.0 (12) Bonus 37	+0:10.5 57:27.7 (13)	+0:00.0 59:03.5 (1) Bonus 60	+1:16.5 56:35.7 (25) Bonus 10	+0:07.5 1:00:25.3 (7) Bonus 45
TURYSHEV Sergey		+0:02.3 1:00:04.5 (5) Bonus 15
JAKS Martin		+0:12.2 1:00:14.4 (14)	+0:02.6 57:19.8 (4) Bonus 10			+0:43.5 1:01:01.3 (27)
TEICHMANN Axel		+2:38.9 1:02:41.1 (39)		+0:32.3 59:35.8 (3) Bonus 5	+0:00.0 55:19.2 (1) Bonus 50	+0:05.5 1:00:23.3 (5)
FILBRICH Jens		+0:11.3 1:00:13.5 (13) Bonus 6	+0:03.9 57:21.1 (7)	+0:48.0 59:51.5 (10)	+0:04.0 55:23.2 (7)	+0:25.1 1:00:43.0 (19)
CLARA Roland		+0:18.4 1:00:20.6 (15)	+0:03.7 57:20.9 (6)	+2:23.4 1:01:26.9 (32)	+0:44.6 56:03.8 (23)
DYRHAUG Niklas		+0:05.1 1:00:07.3 (7)
JAPAROV Dmitriy		+0:05.9 1:00:08.1 (9) Bonus 10	+1:52.0 59:09.2 (22)
ANGERER Tobias		+0:05.8 1:00:08.0 (8)				+0:10.1 1:00:28.0 (9)
HELLNER Marcus		+0:08.6 1:00:10.8 (11) Bonus 29	+1:53.4 59:10.6 (23)	+0:53.6 59:57.2 (11)		+1:47.0 1:02:04.8 (38)
RICKARDSSON Daniel			+0:05.1 57:22.3 (10)	+0:37.0 59:40.6 (5)	+0:22.5 55:41.7 (14)	+1:48.6 1:02:06.4 (39)
DI CENTA Giorgio		+1:35.2 1:01:37.4 (22) Bonus 15	+0:20.2 57:37.4 (17)	+1:28.5 1:00:32.0 (21)	+0:43.6 56:02.8 (21)	+0:22.1 1:00:40.0 (16) Bonus 30
GAILLARD Jean Marc			+0:05.6 57:22.8 (11) Bonus 5	+0:42.0 59:45.5 (6) Bonus 15	+0:33.1 55:52.3 (17) Bonus 20
PERL Curdin		+3:49.6 1:03:51.8 (48)	+0:04.5 57:21.7 (8) Bonus 5	+1:28.1 1:00:31.7 (19)	+1:54.8 57:14.0 (31)
PASINI Fabio		+0:19.2 1:00:21.4 (16)		+3:52.6 1:02:56.1 (40)	+1:45.9 57:05.1 (26)
VYLEGZHANIN Maxim		+0:23.0 1:00:25.2 (18) Bonus 27			+0:03.9 55:23.1 (6) Bonus 5	+1:31.1 1:01:49.0 (34)
GJERDALEN Tord Asle			+0:15.3 57:32.5 (14)	+0:54.6 59:58.2 (12)	+1:56.5 57:15.7 (34)	+0:05.1 1:00:23.0 (4) Bonus 10
DUVILLARD Robin		+0:39.0 1:00:41.2 (21)	+1:58.3 59:15.5 (25)	+4:49.8 1:03:53.3 (41)
CHERNOUSOV Ilia		+0:30.7 1:00:32.9 (20) Bonus 1		+1:28.4 1:00:31.9 (20)		+4:40.5 1:04:58.3 (56)
BESSMERTNYKH Alexander		+0:29.5 1:00:31.7 (19)	+3:27.0 1:00:44.2 (32)
REICHELT Tom			+0:07.0 57:24.2 (12)	+1:35.6 1:00:39.2 (23)	+2:00.2 57:19.4 (36)
CHEBOTKO Nikolay		+3:57.2 1:03:59.4 (49)		+1:16.5 1:00:20.1 (17)	+0:01.3 55:20.5 (3) Bonus 5	+3:13.9 1:03:31.7 (48)
MORIGGL Thomas		+1:59.8 1:02:02.0 (26)	+1:47.1 59:04.3 (20)	+2:56.4 1:01:59.9 (39)
VELICHKO Yevgeniy		+1:54.0 1:01:56.2 (24)		+1:09.5 1:00:13.0 (14)	+1:46.5 57:05.7 (28)
MIRANDA Cyril			+0:19.6 57:36.8 (16)	+2:22.1 1:01:25.6 (30)	+1:57.7 57:16.9 (35)
EINARSSON Snorri			+0:44.2 58:01.4 (18)
GOERING Franz						+0:03.1 1:00:21.0 (3) Bonus 5
LEGKOV Alexander		+1:59.9 1:02:02.1 (27) Bonus 16			+3:18.6 58:37.8 (46)	+0:36.5 1:00:54.4 (23)
FISCHER Remo			+1:56.9 59:14.1 (24)
CHECCHI Valerio				+1:15.1 1:00:18.7 (16)	+0:33.4 55:52.6 (19)	+0:09.0 1:00:26.8 (8)
BABIKOV Ivan		+2:18.5 1:02:20.7 (32)	+2:29.7 59:46.9 (27)	+1:37.6 1:00:41.2 (25) Bonus 5	+4:51.9 1:00:11.1 (47)
REHEMAA Aivar		+2:32.6 1:02:34.8 (38)			+0:13.8 55:33.0 (10)
KARP Algo		+3:48.3 1:03:50.5 (47)		+2:15.5 1:01:19.0 (29)	+0:43.2 56:02.4 (20)
OESTENSEN Simen				+1:50.7 1:00:54.2 (27)		+0:36.2 1:00:54.1 (22)
LIVERS Toni					+0:53.5 56:12.7 (24)

Women starters – historical results

Name		2012 Val di Fiemme 2012-01-07 10 km C Mst	2011 Val di Fiemme 2011-01-08 10 km C Mst	2010 Val di Fiemme 2010-01-09 10 km C Mst	2009 Val di Fiemme 2009-01-03 10 km C Mst	2008 Val di Fiemme 2008-01-05 10 km C Mst
KOWALCZYK Justyna		+0:00.0 25:49.8 (1) Bonus 45	+0:00.0 30:27.6 (1) Bonus 45	+0:15.5 34:21.9 (22) Bonus 15	+0:53.2 31:03.5 (15)	+1:10.4 33:58.5 (26)
JOHAUG Therese		+0:51.2 26:41.0 (11) Bonus 7	+0:06.3 30:33.9 (2) Bonus 30		+0:37.1 30:47.4 (9)	+0:29.4 33:17.5 (15)
KALLA Charlotte		+0:31.0 26:20.8 (3) Bonus 20	+2:16.2 32:43.8 (15)			+0:04.5 32:52.6 (2) Bonus 10
SAARINEN Aino- Kaisa		+0:33.6 26:23.4 (4) Bonus 16	+1:14.0 31:41.6 (5) Bonus 10	+0:29.4 34:35.8 (27)	+0:20.5 30:30.8 (3) Bonus 15	+0:59.2 33:47.3 (23) Bonus 10
IVANOVA Julia		+0:42.3 26:32.1 (5) Bonus 2			+1:49.3 31:59.6 (27)	+1:23.2 34:11.3 (31)
ZELLER Katrin		+0:46.5 26:36.3 (6) Bonus 9	+1:28.1 31:55.7 (8)	+0:06.0 34:12.4 (10)	+0:47.5 30:57.8 (11)	+0:05.5 32:53.6 (5) Bonus 10
KRISTOFFERSEN Marthe		+0:49.9 26:39.7 (10) Bonus 6	+1:25.1 31:52.7 (7)	+0:34.1 34:40.6 (30)	+1:28.5 31:38.8 (21)
LAHTEENMAKI Krista		+0:49.2 26:39.0 (9) Bonus 10	+2:16.8 32:44.4 (16)
MEDVEDEVA Polina		+0:48.0 26:37.8 (8)
SMUTNA Katerina		+1:12.1 27:01.9 (15)	+2:27.5 32:55.1 (18)	+0:14.1 34:20.6 (21)	+1:07.5 31:17.8 (16)	+0:20.5 33:08.6 (12)
KYLLOENEN Anne		+1:00.1 26:49.9 (13)	+2:55.2 33:22.8 (22)
ROPONEN Riitta-Liisa		+1:22.1 27:11.9 (18)	+2:03.8 32:31.4 (14)	+0:07.9 34:14.3 (16)	+1:41.2 31:51.5 (23)	+0:37.2 33:25.3 (20)
RANDALL Kikkan		+0:58.9 26:48.7 (12) Bonus 8	+3:54.8 34:22.4 (27)
JACOBSEN Astrid Uhrenholdt		+1:25.4 27:15.2 (20)	+1:53.8 32:21.4 (12)		+1:50.1 32:00.4 (29)
NISKANEN Kerttu		+1:12.5 27:02.3 (16)	+2:33.0 33:00.6 (20)
IKSANOVA Alija		+1:19.5 27:09.3 (17)
OESTBERG Ingvild Flugstad		+1:55.7 27:45.5 (32)	+1:33.3 32:00.9 (10)
KOLOMINA Yelena		+1:24.0 27:13.8 (19)
HAAG Anna			+1:59.3 32:26.9 (13)		+0:36.5 30:46.8 (8)
SHAIDUROVA Larisa		+1:33.1 27:22.9 (22)	+5:59.2 36:26.8 (36)
AHERVO Laura		+1:38.1 27:27.9 (23)
FESSEL Nicole		+1:38.9 27:28.7 (24)
DE MARTIN TOPRANIN Virginia		+1:40.2 27:30.0 (25)	+4:01.7 34:29.3 (30)
SHEVCHENKO Valentina		+1:54.2 27:44.0 (30)	+3:26.3 33:53.9 (24)	+0:20.7 34:27.2 (24)	+0:49.3 30:59.6 (13)	+0:32.9 33:21.0 (17)
STEIRA Kristin Stoermer		+2:01.6 27:51.4 (38)		+0:09.4 34:15.8 (18) Bonus 5	+0:39.0 30:49.3 (10)	+0:13.0 33:01.1 (9)
BOEHLER Stefanie					+0:35.6 30:45.9 (7)	+1:30.5 34:18.7 (34)
TCHEKALEVA Yulia				+0:10.1 34:16.6 (20)
LINDBORG Sara					+1:25.0 31:35.3 (19)
KOROSTELEVA Natalia						+0:34.5 33:22.6 (18)