Everybody knew that there would be several big fields racing from Cortina to Toblach in today’s Tour de Ski Queen stage from Cortina to Toblach – the question was who would make it into which group. In the end the top 24 skiers raced most of the stage in three big fields. The graphical analysis above shows the development from start until finish.

Legkov on the other hand proved to have a very good day today

As expected, Alexander Legkov (Russia) and Alex Harvey (Canada) raced full speed from the start to try to catch up with Maxim Vylegzhanin (Russia), Dario Cologna (Switzerland) and Petter Northug (Norway). Already after a few kilometers skiing, Legkov/Harvey managed to catch up after a strong effort by Legkov – but had it cost too much?

Unfortunately for Harvey, it had – and he fell off the top quartet. Legkov on the other hand proved to have a very good day today – and managed to keep up with Vylegzhanin/Northug/Cologna all the way until the end.

- I knew Legkov would catch us – that is his way of racing. He raced hard until he caught us. Myself I did not get a good rhythm the first 5 km, but after that it went well, Northug said after the race.

Slowed down

The leading group slowed down the last kilometers – letting the other groups catch up some time. Northug won the sprint on the homestretch ahead of Legkov 0.7 seconds behind, and Cologna in third was 0.9 seconds back. With 15 / 10 / 5 bonus seconds to the top 3, Northug will have a +5.7 second lead going into tomorrow’s 5 km short classic race.

- In Oberhof I was at 80 percent, in Val Müstair 90 percent, and today 100 percent, a happy Northug said after his win.

The Cortina-Toblach stage is the stage were Northug has effectively lost the Tour de Ski the last two years. Northug now goes into the last three stages with a lot of self confidence after the win today.

24 skiers within 2:15

Harvey on the other hand was caught by the Chernousov/Bauer/Hellner group – turning the trio into another quartet around 15 km into the race. This group gradually lost time to the leading quartet, finishing 1:25 behind the leaders (1:40 including bonus seconds).

According to Sweden’s coach Arild Monsen, Marcus Hellner did all the work in this quartet.

- The others did not help Marcus at all. Don’t they want to get closer to the lead, or what was this? And even after that, they sprinted in the end, Monsen said to Sweski.com.

- We had a deal with Bauer, and he did not help at all, a furious Monsen commented.

The rest of the skiers did not make the cut into the first two groups – and 16 of them gathered into a big group – racing very fast in the last 7-8 km of the race. In the end this group finished only 20 seconds behind the Chernousov/Bauer/Hellner/Harvey group. Thus now we have 24 skiers within 2:15 in the overall.

• Overall Tour standings

Set up your predictions for the remaining stages

Set up your predictions and see results here:

• #1: Results Tour de Ski Prologue, 3/4 km Free, Oberhof
• #2: Results Tour de Ski Stage 2, 9/15 km Pursuit Classic, Oberhof
• #3:Results Tour de Ski Stage 3, Sprint Free, Val Mustair, Tschierv
• #4: Tour de Ski Stage 4, 35/15 km Pursuit Free, Toblach/Cortina
• #5: Tour de Ski Stage 5, 3/5 km Classic, Toblach/Cortina
• #6: Tour de Ski Stage 6, 10/15 km Classic, Val di Fiemme
• #7: Tour de Ski Stage 7, Final climb (Individual times)
• Overall XC-Prediction results – Tour de Ski 2012/2013 – updated after each stage

Split 1

1.	13:59		Lukas BAUER	CZE
2.	14:00	+00:00	Marcus HELLNER	SWE
3.	14:00	+00:01	Daniel RICHARDSSON	SWE
4.	14:01	+00:02	Alexander LEGKOV	RUS
5.	14:04	+00:05	Roland CLARA	ITA
6.	14:04	+00:05	Alex HARVEY	CAN
7.	14:09	+00:10	Tord Asle GJERDALEN	NOR
8.	14:10	+00:10	Remo FISCHER	SUI
9.	14:10	+00:11	Tobias ANGERER	GER
10.	14:11	+00:12	Michail SEMENOV	BLR
11.	14:12	+00:13	Alexander BESSMERTNYKH	RUS
12.	14:12	+00:13	Devon KERSHAW	CAN
28.	14:23	+00:24	Giorgio DI CENTA	ITA

Split 2

1.	16:49		Daniel RICHARDSSON	SWE
2.	16:51	+00:02	Tobias ANGERER	GER
3.	16:53	+00:04	Giorgio DI CENTA	ITA
4.	16:57	+00:08	Alexander BESSMERTNYKH	RUS
5.	16:59	+00:11	Roland CLARA	ITA
6.	17:00	+00:11	Petter jr. NORTHUG	NOR
7.	17:00	+00:11	Johannes DUERR	AUT
8.	17:01	+00:12	Thomas MORIGGL	ITA
9.	17:01	+00:12	Alexander LEGKOV	RUS
10.	17:01	+00:12	Maxim VYLEGZHANIN	RUS
11.	17:02	+00:13	Dario COLOGNA	SUI
18.	17:12	+00:23	Tord Asle GJERDALEN	NOR
19.	17:12	+00:23	Devon KERSHAW	CAN

Split 3

1.	08:00		Jean Marc GAILLARD	FRA
2.	08:04	+00:04	Remo FISCHER	SUI
3.	08:07	+00:08	Valerio CHECCHI	ITA
4.	08:09	+00:09	Johannes DUERR	AUT
5.	08:18	+00:18	Maxim VYLEGZHANIN	RUS
6.	08:18	+00:19	Petter jr. NORTHUG	NOR
7.	08:19	+00:19	Tobias ANGERER	GER
8.	08:19	+00:20	Alexander LEGKOV	RUS
9.	08:19	+00:20	Curdin PERL	SUI
10.	08:20	+00:20	Dario COLOGNA	SUI
11.	08:20	+00:20	Tord Asle GJERDALEN	NOR
13.	08:20	+00:21	Devon KERSHAW	CAN
16.	08:20	+00:21	Alexander BESSMERTNYKH	RUS
18.	08:20	+00:21	Giorgio DI CENTA	ITA
28.	08:27	+00:28	Daniel RICHARDSSON	SWE

Split 4

1.	11:35		Dario COLOGNA	SUI
2.	11:37	+00:01	Alexander LEGKOV	RUS
3.	11:37	+00:02	Petter jr. NORTHUG	NOR
4.	11:38	+00:02	Maxim VYLEGZHANIN	RUS
5.	11:38	+00:03	Calle HALFVARSSON	SWE
6.	11:41	+00:06	Devon KERSHAW	CAN
7.	11:41	+00:06	Len VALJAS	CAN
8.	11:42	+00:07	Sergey TURYSHEV	RUS
9.	11:42	+00:07	Daniel RICHARDSSON	SWE
10.	11:43	+00:08	Jens FILBRICH	GER
11.	11:44	+00:08	Ivan BABIKOV	CAN
12.	11:44	+00:08	Tord Asle GJERDALEN	NOR
13.	11:44	+00:09	Alexander BESSMERTNYKH	RUS
15.	11:44	+00:09	Giorgio DI CENTA	ITA
24.	11:47	+00:12	Tobias ANGERER	GER

Split 5

1.	07:34		Maxim VYLEGZHANIN	RUS
2.	07:35	+00:01	Petter jr. NORTHUG	NOR
3.	07:35	+00:01	Alexander LEGKOV	RUS
4.	07:36	+00:02	Tobias ANGERER	GER
5.	07:37	+00:03	Dario COLOGNA	SUI
6.	07:37	+00:03	Len VALJAS	CAN
7.	07:39	+00:05	Michail SEMENOV	BLR
8.	07:39	+00:05	Dmitriy JAPAROV	RUS
9.	07:40	+00:06	Sergey TURYSHEV	RUS
10.	07:40	+00:06	Remo FISCHER	SUI
11.	07:40	+00:06	Ivan BABIKOV	CAN
16.	07:41	+00:07	Giorgio DI CENTA	ITA
17.	07:41	+00:07	Tord Asle GJERDALEN	NOR
19.	07:41	+00:07	Devon KERSHAW	CAN
21.	07:41	+00:07	Daniel RICHARDSSON	SWE
28.	07:42	+00:08	Alexander BESSMERTNYKH	RUS

Split 6

1.	10:01		Alexander BESSMERTNYKH	RUS
2.	10:02	+00:01	Tord Asle GJERDALEN	NOR
3.	10:04	+00:03	Dmitriy JAPAROV	RUS
4.	10:04	+00:03	Curdin PERL	SUI
5.	10:04	+00:03	Sergey TURYSHEV	RUS
6.	10:04	+00:03	Johan OLSSON	SWE
7.	10:04	+00:03	Alexey POLTORANIN	KAZ
8.	10:04	+00:03	Daniel RICHARDSSON	SWE
9.	10:05	+00:04	Finn Haagen KROGH	NOR
10.	10:05	+00:04	Giorgio DI CENTA	ITA
11.	10:06	+00:04	Ivan BABIKOV	CAN
13.	10:06	+00:05	Devon KERSHAW	CAN
15.	10:07	+00:06	Tobias ANGERER	GER

Split 7

1.	03:49		Ivan BABIKOV	CAN
2.	03:50	+00:01	Tord Asle GJERDALEN	NOR
3.	03:50	+00:01	Alexander BESSMERTNYKH	RUS
4.	03:50	+00:01	Devon KERSHAW	CAN
5.	03:51	+00:02	Curdin PERL	SUI
6.	03:51	+00:02	Jens FILBRICH	GER
7.	03:51	+00:02	Daniel RICHARDSSON	SWE
8.	03:51	+00:02	Johan OLSSON	SWE
9.	03:51	+00:02	Dmitriy JAPAROV	RUS
10.	03:52	+00:02	Alexey POLTORANIN	KAZ
11.	03:52	+00:02	Giorgio DI CENTA	ITA
12.	03:52	+00:03	Tobias ANGERER	GER

Split 8

1.	02:44		Ales RAZYM	CZE
2.	02:46	+00:02	Dietmar NOECKLER	ITA
3.	02:46	+00:02	Thomas MORIGGL	ITA
4.	02:47	+00:03	Giorgio DI CENTA	ITA
5.	02:47	+00:03	Valerio CHECCHI	ITA
6.	02:47	+00:03	Andreas KATZ	GER
7.	02:47	+00:03	Daniel RICHARDSSON	SWE
8.	02:47	+00:03	Jens FILBRICH	GER
9.	02:47	+00:03	Nikolay CHEBOTKO	KAZ
10.	02:47	+00:03	Finn Haagen KROGH	NOR
11.	02:47	+00:03	Remo FISCHER	SUI
12.	02:47	+00:03	Tobias ANGERER	GER
19.	02:48	+00:04	Devon KERSHAW	CAN
20.	02:48	+00:04	Alexander BESSMERTNYKH	RUS
28.	02:51	+00:07	Tord Asle GJERDALEN	NOR

The long stage from Cortina to Toblach in the men’s class is the Queen stage of Tour de Ski – with more than 30 kilometers of skating on an A-to-B course, this stage can shake up the overall standings considerably like it did the last years.  This will be like Christmas Eve for Cross Country skiing fans!

• Set up predictions for Tour de Ski Stage 4, Cortina/Toblach, before the men’s start at January 3rd 12:15 CET

The women will “only” race 15 km on a 5 km course which is skied 3 times. Less drama is expected here, although it will be interesting to see if the pack can gain some time on the “impossible” Kowalczyk racing alone at the front. Skating is not the strongest discipline of the Polish Tour leader – and the followers will surely cooperate well with two Norwegians among them.

The Russians versus Cologna and Northug

As we have seen in previous editions of Tour de Ski, if there is no cooperation at the front  of the field, more and more skiers can come up from behind

Cologna has decided the Tour at the Cortina-Toblach stage the two last years by arriving alone in Toblach more than a minute ahead of the closest follower – but this is not a likely scenario this year. Instead, the main question ahead of this year’s Queen stage is: How big will the leading group become – and will the group manage to cooperate? Five skiers start within 30 seconds, and nobody will be surprised if they get together at an early stage in the race.  It looks like the main fight this year will be between the Russian duo Vylegzhanin (starting first)/Legkov (+28 seconds), the Swiss Tour de Ski specialist Dario Cologna (+ 2 seconds) and the Norwegian Petter Northug (+ 9 seconds). Canadian Devon Kershaw Harvey (+27 seconds) also has a perfect starting position and will be up there fighting for a top result.

However, as we have seen in previous editions of Tour de Ski, if there is no cooperation at the front  of the field, more and more skiers can come up from behind. Northug has stated several times ahead of the Tour that he will not help keeping up the speed on the Cortina-Toblach stage. If he follows this plan, the others might not just want to give him a free ride. With Russian Ilia Chernousov starting only 24 seconds behind Legkov, a Russian trio in the leading group is a possibility depending on how the tactics are played up at the front.

Going another 33 seconds down on the start list, we come to the “big pack” – with last year’s fastest skier on this stage Marcus Hellner and the strong Czech Lukas Bauer at the head of the field. Too little cooperation at the front, and anything is possible. Big groups who cooperate well can go very fast on this type of stages – but how will the groups form? Here is the complete startlist / tour standings.

Dario Cologna – Photo WorldofXC.com

2011/2012: Awesome Cologna – three big groups

Petter Northug started the day 13.5 seconds behind Dario Cologna. Northug started out fast and caught Cologna after a few kilometers. The Norwegian was however punished for his tough start, and lost more than a minute to Cologna while waiting out Legkov (RUS). Behind Northug and Legkov the strongest group of the day was formed – the trio Hellner (SWE), Manificat (FRA) and Kershaw (CAN) – all three starting more than 2 minutes behind Cologna. They steadily gained time on Cologna until they caught Northug and Legkov around 20 km – having caught up with more than a minute at that time. Then they slowed down to the speed of Northug/Legkov, and the group finished down 1:16 from Cologna. If the group had not stopped cooperating when catching Northug/Legkov, they would probably have managed to gain even more time on Cologna. Marcus Hellner and Maurice Manificat – the two fastest skiers of the day – both gained around 1:30 on Cologna in the end.

Interesting fact: No single skiers except for Cologna survived on their own their own throughout the race. The rest of the skiers fighting in the top packed themselves into only three big groups.

Illustration Tour de Ski 2011/2012: Splitsbrowser where comparison is done to Dario Cologna. A line which is flat means the same time as Cologna. A line which goes down represents slower speed – a line which goes up represents faster speed. You can see where the grouping occured by observing where the lines get together.

2010/2011: Large group – no cooperation in the end

Looking back to the 2010/2011 edition of Tour de Ski, all skiers in the Top 30 except for Dario Cologna (SUI) and Marcus Hellner (SWE) in the lead got sucked up by three big groups (see article including graphical illustration here). The biggest group which Petter Northug (NOR) was part of gained time on Cologna throughout most of the race – gaining nearly 45 seconds from 7 km up to 27 km. However, the group had problems cooperating in the last part of the downhill down to Toblach, loosing more than half of what they had worked hard on gaining in the first part of the race. When the group got too big, the skiers did not manage to cooperate anymore.

Illustration Tour de Ski 2010/2011: Splitsbrowser where comparison is again done against Dario Cologna. Note that the starting split not correct due to the way the time keeping is reported.

2009/2010: Group of six from the start

In the 2009/2010 edition, there was just over 16 seconds separating the top five Hellner (SWE), Østensen (NOR), Northug, Cologna and Teichmann (GER) at the start. Østensen was dropped early, and Heikkinen (FIN) and Gaillard (FRA) caught up with the remaining four after 15km. The leading six became five as they approached the town of Toblach where Teichmann fell off the pace. In the end Northug won the finish sprint ahead of Cologna and Hellner.

Women: Strong field chasing Kowalczyk

Kowalczyk has, however, shown some weakness in skating recently, and this might very well make this race a lot more interesting than it looks at first sight

In the women’s race the fight is clear: Kowalczyk against the rest. If this race would have been races in classic style, the followers would have had a nearly impossible job. Kowalczyk has, however, shown some weakness in skating recently, and this might very well make this race a lot more interesting than it looks at first sight.

Behind Kowalczyk the two Norwegians Therese Johaug (at +50 seconds) and Kristin Størmer Steira (at + 1:00) will probably try to cooperate closely to gain time on Kowalczyk .  Last year Johaug started in a vacuum and had to race all of the 15 km alone whereas the duo Kowalczyk/Bjørgen fought together at the front. This resulted in Johaug loosing 50 seconds to the top duo – and with that any chance to win the overall Tour 2011/2012. Can Johaug exploit her advantage this year?

It is not only about the Norwegians and Kowalczyk, though. Denise Herrmann (Germany) starts only 5 seconds behind Størmer Steira and will try to join in on the chase. Kikkan Randall (at +1:18, USA), Anne Kyllönen (at 1:29, Finland) and Charlotte Kalla (at 1:32, Sweden) are probably too far behind in order to catch the two Norwegians. However, in a 9-day Tour one skier might suddenly have a super day while another has a bad day, so anything can happen… Here is the complete startlist / tour standings.

Set up your predictions

Set up your predictions and see results here:

• #1: Results Tour de Ski Prologue, 3/4 km Free, Oberhof
• #2: Results Tour de Ski Stage 2, 9/15 km Pursuit Classic, Oberhof
• #3:Results Tour de Ski Stage 3, Sprint Free, Val Mustair, Tschierv
• #4: Tour de Ski Stage 4, 35/15 km Pursuit Free, Toblach/Cortina
• #5: Tour de Ski Stage 5, 3/5 km Classic, Toblach/Cortina
• #6: Tour de Ski Stage 6, 10/15 km Classic, Val di Fiemme
• #7: Tour de Ski Stage 7, Final climb (Individual times)
• Overall XC-Prediction results – Tour de Ski 2012/2013 – updated after each stage

Justyna Kowalczyk – Photo WorldofXC.com

Johan has taken the lead in the overall Tour de Ski predictions after a 6th place in the Val Müstair sprint predictions. Best in the race today was Маша и Слоник. Congratulations!

Still tight in the top, and with 4 more races to go in addition to the overall nothing is yet decided. Full results from the sprint are available here – and overall Tour de Ski prediction results here.

Top 10: Tour de Ski 2012/2013 overall

Click the points in the table below in order to see the predictions for each of the races. Click the ‘x’ to see the predictions for the overall Tour de Ski.

Top 10 Val Müstair sprint

1. Маша и Слоник: 550 points
   

   1. JOENSSON Emil 40 points 2. NORTHUG Petter jr. 32 points 3. COLOGNA Dario 50 points 4. NEWELL Andrew 29 points 5. PELLEGRINO Federico 80 points

   1. RANDALL Kikkan 100 (+50) points 2. OESTBERG Ingvild Flugstad 80 (+30) points 3. KYLLOENEN Anne 5 points 4. VAN DER GRAAFF Laurien 22 points 5. HERRMANN Denise 32 points

2. AndersPe.: 540 points
   

   1. JOENSSON Emil 40 points 2. NORTHUG Petter jr. 32 points 3. HELLNER Marcus 36 points 4. VYLEGZHANIN Maxim 26 points 5. COLOGNA Dario 50 points

   1. RANDALL Kikkan 100 (+50) points 2. OESTBERG Ingvild Flugstad 80 (+30) points 3. KALLA Charlotte 40 points 4. JACOBSEN Astrid Uhrenholdt 20 points 5. KOWALCZYK Justyna 36 points

3. CMNT: 540 points
   

   1. JOENSSON Emil 40 points 2. NORTHUG Petter jr. 32 points 3. HARVEY Alex 22 points 4. NEWELL Andrew 29 points 5. PELLEGRINO Federico 80 points

   1. RANDALL Kikkan 100 (+50) points 2. OESTBERG Ingvild Flugstad 80 (+30) points 3. KYLLOENEN Anne 5 points 4. KALLA Charlotte 40 points 5. HERRMANN Denise 32 points

4. Anna F: 536 points
   

   1. COLOGNA Dario 50 points 2. JOENSSON Emil 40 points 3. NORTHUG Petter jr. 32 points 4. VYLEGZHANIN Maxim 26 points 5. HELLNER Marcus 36 points

   1. RANDALL Kikkan 100 (+50) points 2. OESTBERG Ingvild Flugstad 80 (+30) points 3. HERRMANN Denise 32 points 4. JACOBSEN Astrid Uhrenholdt 20 points 5. KALLA Charlotte 40 points

5. AORler: 534 points
   

   1. JOENSSON Emil 40 points 2. COLOGNA Dario 50 points 3. NORTHUG Petter jr. 32 points 4. NEWELL Andrew 29 points 5. PELLEGRINO Federico 80 points

   1. RANDALL Kikkan 100 (+50) points 2. KOWALCZYK Justyna 36 points 3. KYLLOENEN Anne 5 points 4. OESTBERG Ingvild Flugstad 80 points 5. HERRMANN Denise 32 points

6. Johan: 532 points
   

   1. NORTHUG Petter jr. 32 points 2. JOENSSON Emil 40 points 3. COLOGNA Dario 50 points 4. HARVEY Alex 22 points 5. HELLNER Marcus 36 points

   1. RANDALL Kikkan 100 (+50) points 2. OESTBERG Ingvild Flugstad 80 (+30) points 3. HERRMANN Denise 32 points 4. JACOBSEN Astrid Uhrenholdt 20 points 5. KALLA Charlotte 40 points

7. Rolf Z: 528 points
   

   1. JOENSSON Emil 40 points 2. COLOGNA Dario 50 points 3. NORTHUG Petter jr. 32 points 4. HARVEY Alex 22 points 5. CHERNOUSOV Ilia 18 points

   1. RANDALL Kikkan 100 (+50) points 2. OESTBERG Ingvild Flugstad 80 (+30) points 3. KOWALCZYK Justyna 36 points 4. JACOBSEN Astrid Uhrenholdt 20 points 5. KOLB Hanna 50 points

8. Davide Bragagna: 528 points
   

   1. JOENSSON Emil 40 points 2. NORTHUG Petter jr. 32 points 3. HELLNER Marcus 36 points 4. COLOGNA Dario 50 (+10) points 5. PELLEGRINO Federico 80 points

   1. RANDALL Kikkan 100 (+50) points 2. HERRMANN Denise 32 points 3. KALLA Charlotte 40 points 4. KOWALCZYK Justyna 36 points 5. VAN DER GRAAFF Laurien 22 points

9. Roberto Dallavalle: 527 points
   

   1. JOENSSON Emil 40 points 2. NORTHUG Petter jr. 32 points 3. COLOGNA Dario 50 points 4. PELLEGRINO Federico 80 points 5. HARVEY Alex 22 points

   1. RANDALL Kikkan 100 (+50) points 2. HERRMANN Denise 32 points 3. KYLLOENEN Anne 5 points 4. OESTBERG Ingvild Flugstad 80 points 5. KOWALCZYK Justyna 36 points

10. Hanna: 525 points
    

    1. JOENSSON Emil 40 points 2. NORTHUG Petter jr. 32 points 3. HELLNER Marcus 36 points 4. HARVEY Alex 22 points 5. COLOGNA Dario 50 points

    1. RANDALL Kikkan 100 (+50) points 2. WENG Heidi 60 points 3. KALLA Charlotte 40 points 4. OESTBERG Ingvild Flugstad 80 points 5. FABJAN Vesna 15 points