Tour de Ski Queen Stage 2013: Analysis

Posted by Jan Kocbach, 03 Jan 2013@15:31


Everybody knew that there would be several big fields racing from Cortina to Toblach in today’s Tour de Ski Queen stage from Cortina to Toblach – the question was who would make it into which group. In the end the top 24 skiers raced most of the stage in three big fields. The graphical analysis above shows the development from start until finish.

The illustration above is a graphical illustration of the race development based on the split times. A line which is flat means that a skier has the same time as Petter Northug for the split (Northug’s line is flat all the way). A line which goes down represents slower speed – a line which goes up represents faster speed. Key moments are marked on the illustration. See the full interactive illustration here.

Legkov on the other hand proved to have a very good day today

As expected, Alexander Legkov (Russia) and Alex Harvey (Canada) raced full speed from the start to try to catch up with Maxim Vylegzhanin (Russia), Dario Cologna (Switzerland) and Petter Northug (Norway). Already after a few kilometers skiing, Legkov/Harvey managed to catch up after a strong effort by Legkov – but had it cost too much?

Unfortunately for Harvey, it had – and he fell off the top quartet. Legkov on the other hand proved to have a very good day today – and managed to keep up with Vylegzhanin/Northug/Cologna all the way until the end.

- I knew Legkov would catch us – that is his way of racing. He raced hard until he caught us. Myself I did not get a good rhythm the first 5 km, but after that it went well, Northug said after the race.

Slowed down

The leading group slowed down the last kilometers – letting the other groups catch up some time. Northug won the sprint on the homestretch ahead of Legkov 0.7 seconds behind, and Cologna in third was 0.9 seconds back. With 15 / 10 / 5 bonus seconds to the top 3, Northug will have a +5.7 second lead going into tomorrow’s 5 km short classic race.

- In Oberhof I was at 80 percent, in Val Müstair 90 percent, and today 100 percent, a happy Northug said after his win.

The Cortina-Toblach stage is the stage were Northug has effectively lost the Tour de Ski the last two years. Northug now goes into the last three stages with a lot of self confidence after the win today.

24 skiers within 2:15

Harvey on the other hand was caught by the Chernousov/Bauer/Hellner group – turning the trio into another quartet around 15 km into the race. This group gradually lost time to the leading quartet, finishing 1:25 behind the leaders (1:40 including bonus seconds).

According to Sweden’s coach Arild Monsen, Marcus Hellner did all the work in this quartet.

- The others did not help Marcus at all. Don’t they want to get closer to the lead, or what was this? And even after that, they sprinted in the end, Monsen said to Sweski.com.

- We had a deal with Bauer, and he did not help at all, a furious Monsen commented.

The rest of the skiers did not make the cut into the first two groups – and 16 of them gathered into a big group – racing very fast in the last 7-8 km of the race. In the end this group finished only 20 seconds behind the Chernousov/Bauer/Hellner/Harvey group. Thus now we have 24 skiers within 2:15 in the overall.

Set up your predictions for the remaining stages

Set up your predictions and see results here:

Split 1
1. 13:59 Lukas BAUER CZE
2. 14:00 +00:00 Marcus HELLNER SWE
3. 14:00 +00:01 Daniel RICHARDSSON SWE
4. 14:01 +00:02 Alexander LEGKOV RUS
5. 14:04 +00:05 Roland CLARA ITA
6. 14:04 +00:05 Alex HARVEY CAN
7. 14:09 +00:10 Tord Asle GJERDALEN NOR
8. 14:10 +00:10 Remo FISCHER SUI
9. 14:10 +00:11 Tobias ANGERER GER
10. 14:11 +00:12 Michail SEMENOV BLR
11. 14:12 +00:13 Alexander BESSMERTNYKH RUS
12. 14:12 +00:13 Devon KERSHAW CAN
28. 14:23 +00:24 Giorgio DI CENTA ITA
Split 2
1. 16:49 Daniel RICHARDSSON SWE
2. 16:51 +00:02 Tobias ANGERER GER
3. 16:53 +00:04 Giorgio DI CENTA ITA
4. 16:57 +00:08 Alexander BESSMERTNYKH RUS
5. 16:59 +00:11 Roland CLARA ITA
6. 17:00 +00:11 Petter jr. NORTHUG NOR
7. 17:00 +00:11 Johannes DUERR AUT
8. 17:01 +00:12 Thomas MORIGGL ITA
9. 17:01 +00:12 Alexander LEGKOV RUS
10. 17:01 +00:12 Maxim VYLEGZHANIN RUS
11. 17:02 +00:13 Dario COLOGNA SUI
18. 17:12 +00:23 Tord Asle GJERDALEN NOR
19. 17:12 +00:23 Devon KERSHAW CAN
Split 3
1. 08:00 Jean Marc GAILLARD FRA
2. 08:04 +00:04 Remo FISCHER SUI
3. 08:07 +00:08 Valerio CHECCHI ITA
4. 08:09 +00:09 Johannes DUERR AUT
5. 08:18 +00:18 Maxim VYLEGZHANIN RUS
6. 08:18 +00:19 Petter jr. NORTHUG NOR
7. 08:19 +00:19 Tobias ANGERER GER
8. 08:19 +00:20 Alexander LEGKOV RUS
9. 08:19 +00:20 Curdin PERL SUI
10. 08:20 +00:20 Dario COLOGNA SUI
11. 08:20 +00:20 Tord Asle GJERDALEN NOR
13. 08:20 +00:21 Devon KERSHAW CAN
16. 08:20 +00:21 Alexander BESSMERTNYKH RUS
18. 08:20 +00:21 Giorgio DI CENTA ITA
28. 08:27 +00:28 Daniel RICHARDSSON SWE
Split 4
1. 11:35 Dario COLOGNA SUI
2. 11:37 +00:01 Alexander LEGKOV RUS
3. 11:37 +00:02 Petter jr. NORTHUG NOR
4. 11:38 +00:02 Maxim VYLEGZHANIN RUS
5. 11:38 +00:03 Calle HALFVARSSON SWE
6. 11:41 +00:06 Devon KERSHAW CAN
7. 11:41 +00:06 Len VALJAS CAN
8. 11:42 +00:07 Sergey TURYSHEV RUS
9. 11:42 +00:07 Daniel RICHARDSSON SWE
10. 11:43 +00:08 Jens FILBRICH GER
11. 11:44 +00:08 Ivan BABIKOV CAN
12. 11:44 +00:08 Tord Asle GJERDALEN NOR
13. 11:44 +00:09 Alexander BESSMERTNYKH RUS
15. 11:44 +00:09 Giorgio DI CENTA ITA
24. 11:47 +00:12 Tobias ANGERER GER
Split 5
1. 07:34 Maxim VYLEGZHANIN RUS
2. 07:35 +00:01 Petter jr. NORTHUG NOR
3. 07:35 +00:01 Alexander LEGKOV RUS
4. 07:36 +00:02 Tobias ANGERER GER
5. 07:37 +00:03 Dario COLOGNA SUI
6. 07:37 +00:03 Len VALJAS CAN
7. 07:39 +00:05 Michail SEMENOV BLR
8. 07:39 +00:05 Dmitriy JAPAROV RUS
9. 07:40 +00:06 Sergey TURYSHEV RUS
10. 07:40 +00:06 Remo FISCHER SUI
11. 07:40 +00:06 Ivan BABIKOV CAN
16. 07:41 +00:07 Giorgio DI CENTA ITA
17. 07:41 +00:07 Tord Asle GJERDALEN NOR
19. 07:41 +00:07 Devon KERSHAW CAN
21. 07:41 +00:07 Daniel RICHARDSSON SWE
28. 07:42 +00:08 Alexander BESSMERTNYKH RUS
Split 6
1. 10:01 Alexander BESSMERTNYKH RUS
2. 10:02 +00:01 Tord Asle GJERDALEN NOR
3. 10:04 +00:03 Dmitriy JAPAROV RUS
4. 10:04 +00:03 Curdin PERL SUI
5. 10:04 +00:03 Sergey TURYSHEV RUS
6. 10:04 +00:03 Johan OLSSON SWE
7. 10:04 +00:03 Alexey POLTORANIN KAZ
8. 10:04 +00:03 Daniel RICHARDSSON SWE
9. 10:05 +00:04 Finn Haagen KROGH NOR
10. 10:05 +00:04 Giorgio DI CENTA ITA
11. 10:06 +00:04 Ivan BABIKOV CAN
13. 10:06 +00:05 Devon KERSHAW CAN
15. 10:07 +00:06 Tobias ANGERER GER
Split 7
1. 03:49 Ivan BABIKOV CAN
2. 03:50 +00:01 Tord Asle GJERDALEN NOR
3. 03:50 +00:01 Alexander BESSMERTNYKH RUS
4. 03:50 +00:01 Devon KERSHAW CAN
5. 03:51 +00:02 Curdin PERL SUI
6. 03:51 +00:02 Jens FILBRICH GER
7. 03:51 +00:02 Daniel RICHARDSSON SWE
8. 03:51 +00:02 Johan OLSSON SWE
9. 03:51 +00:02 Dmitriy JAPAROV RUS
10. 03:52 +00:02 Alexey POLTORANIN KAZ
11. 03:52 +00:02 Giorgio DI CENTA ITA
12. 03:52 +00:03 Tobias ANGERER GER
Split 8
1. 02:44 Ales RAZYM CZE
2. 02:46 +00:02 Dietmar NOECKLER ITA
3. 02:46 +00:02 Thomas MORIGGL ITA
4. 02:47 +00:03 Giorgio DI CENTA ITA
5. 02:47 +00:03 Valerio CHECCHI ITA
6. 02:47 +00:03 Andreas KATZ GER
7. 02:47 +00:03 Daniel RICHARDSSON SWE
8. 02:47 +00:03 Jens FILBRICH GER
9. 02:47 +00:03 Nikolay CHEBOTKO KAZ
10. 02:47 +00:03 Finn Haagen KROGH NOR
11. 02:47 +00:03 Remo FISCHER SUI
12. 02:47 +00:03 Tobias ANGERER GER
19. 02:48 +00:04 Devon KERSHAW CAN
20. 02:48 +00:04 Alexander BESSMERTNYKH RUS
28. 02:51 +00:07 Tord Asle GJERDALEN NOR

2 Comments

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Pingback by WorldofXC Blog » Race Preview: Short classic Toblach stage

January 3, 2013 @ 17:02

[...] Analysis Tour de Ski Queen stage and Women’s 15 km pursuit  in Toblach – with interactive illustrations [...]

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Pingback by WorldofXC Blog » Race Preview & Predictions: Tour de Ski Queen Stage 2014

January 2, 2014 @ 20:25

[...] stage can shake up the overall standings considerably like it did in earlier years – see the 2013, 2012 and 2011 analysis here.  In the women’s class we will also have a very interesting [...]

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