Race Preview & XC-Predictions: 10/15 km Free Technique

Posted by Jan Kocbach, 19 Feb 2013@21:33

On Tuesday and Wednesday the scene is set for the only individual start race in this year’s World Championships in Val di Fiemme – a free technique race over 10 km for the women and 15 km for the men. Where mass start races require a good finish sprint and a lot of tactics – the interval start is closer to the origin of cross country skiing – the fight against the clock.

Men: Most open discipline

The winner in the Skiathlon on Saturday – Dario Cologna – is the reigning Olympic Champion – and always performs well in 15 km free technique races

The 15 km free technique is the most open discipline in this years World Championships. Johan Olsson won the last World Cup race in this exact discipline in Davos less than two weeks ago with most of the favourites on the start line – and thus has to be counted among the top favourites. On the other hand, the winner in the last test before the championships does not always manage to repeat the victory when it really counts. A few days before the last World Championships in Oslo in 2011, another Swede, Daniel Rickardsson, won the Drammen World Cup race in the same discipline, but took a disappointing 42nd place in the World Championships.

The winner in the Skiathlon on Saturday – Dario Cologna – is the reigning Olympic Champion – and always performs well in 15 km free technique races when he is in good shape. Cologna finished second in the last test in Davos – and is definitely one to look out for.   Third in Davos was Alexander Legkov – the Tour de Ski winner from earlier this year. Although 15 km individual start is not his best discipline, it would not be a big surprise if he takes the victory.

Martin Johnsrud Sundby won the season opener over 15 km free technique, but had a bad race in Davos with 28th place. However, Johnsrud Sundby showed that his shape is perfect on the Skiathlon on Saturday – finishing in 2nd spot.

Hellner versus Northug: Fight only for glory or for victory?

The two arch rivals Petter Northug (Norway) and Marcus Hellner (Sweden) are also among the favourites. Hellner won last season’s season opener over 15 km free technique – and can do exceptional races in this discipline. The 15 km individual start is not Northug’s strongest discipline – but if everything fits, Northug may very well take the top position on the podium. Northug may, however, decide to skip the 15 km in order to focus fully on the relay and the 50 km.

There has been one 10/15 km free technique race in the World Cup before Davos this season – the season opener in Gällivare in November. In the men’s class it was dominated by typical classic specialists like Martin Johnsrud Sundby and Alexey Poltoranin.

Outsiders are Alexey Poltoranin (2nd in the season opener in Gällivare on this discpiline, but best in classic technique), Matti Heikkinen (Top 5 both in Gällivare and in Davos), Sjur Røthe (if he is on the start list – showed good shape with 3rd place in the Skiathlon – good free technique skier),  Axel Teichmann, Maurice Manificat and Roland Clara.

Women: Bjørgen, Bjørgen, Bjørgen

Add also the German biathlon skier Miriam Gössner – she could be the big surprise of the day!

In the women’s class, the absense of Justyna Kowalczyk (saving her energy for the remaining races as free technique has not been her best technique this year) makes this even more a Norwegian Championships. The Norwegians had four women on top on the Skiathlon – and Marit Bjørgen, Therese Johaug and Kristin Størmer Steira will again be the top favourites.

The two last Norwegians on the start line – Heidi Weng (bronze on Skiathlon) and Astrid Uhrenholdt Jakobsen are also outsiders for the medals. The only non-Norwegian skiers among the top favourites in the women’s class are Charlotte Kalla (Sweden) and the Finnish women (although they are stronger in classic). Add also the German biathlon skier Miriam Gössner – she could be the big surprise of the day!

However, Marit Bjørgen is the big, big favourites. The strong Norwegian has won the three last 10 km free technique races she has started in in the World Cup.

Outsider in the women’s class are (if they are all starting) Kikkan Randall, Jessica Diggings,  Yulia Tchekaleva, Emma Wiken and Holly Brooks.

As a preview to the World Champs 10/15 km free technique, you find historical results from relevant races below. Note that the above preview was written before startlists were available.

Men all – historical results
Name 2013
Davos
2013-02-17
15 km F
2012
Gaellivare
2012-11-24
15 km F
2011
Sjusjoen
2011-11-19
15 km F
2010
Gällivare
2010-11-20
15 km F
2010
Whistler Olympic Park
2010-02-15
15 km F
2007
Sapporo
2007-02-28
15 km F
OLSSON Johan +0:00.0
34:47.5 (1)
+1:17.9
31:54.9 (31)
+0:00.0
32:40.9 (1)
+1:20.5
33:46.5 (32)
+1:03.0
34:39.3 (11)
+1:19.3
37:09.3 (7)
COLOGNA Dario +0:11.8
34:59.3 (2)
+1:06.2
31:43.2 (19)
+0:41.6
33:22.6 (7)
+0:11.4
32:37.4 (2)
+0:00.0
33:36.3 (1)
SUNDBY Martin Johnsrud +1:12.8
36:00.3 (28)
+0:00.0
30:37.0 (1)
LEGKOV Alexander +0:13.9
35:01.4 (3)
+0:41.0
31:18.1 (9)
+0:58.3
33:39.3 (11)
+0:30.4
32:56.4 (6)
+1:14.8
34:51.1 (15)
+1:16.4
37:06.4 (5)
POLTORANIN Alexey +1:00.5
35:48.1 (20)
+0:08.9
30:45.9 (2)
+0:49.3
33:30.2 (10)
+1:04.7
33:30.7 (22)
HELLNER Marcus +0:58.0
35:45.6 (18)
+0:11.0
30:48.1 (3)
+0:43.8
33:24.7 (9)
+0:00.0
32:26.0 (1)
+0:37.2
34:13.5 (4)
+1:23.0
37:13.0 (8)
NORTHUG Petter jr. +0:47.9
35:35.4 (14)
+0:35.4
31:12.4 (7)
+0:31.1
33:12.1 (2)
+2:03.2
35:39.5 (41)
+2:23.0
38:13.0 (24)
HEIKKINEN Matti +0:17.8
35:05.3 (5)
+0:30.2
31:07.2 (4)
+1:40.6
34:21.5 (40)
+2:56.4
35:22.4 (82)
+2:00.8
35:37.1 (39)
TEICHMANN Axel +0:15.0
35:02.6 (4)
+1:08.3
31:45.3 (23)
+1:44.8
34:25.7 (47)
+1:26.5
33:52.5 (37)
+2:10.7
35:47.0 (44)
+1:14.5
37:04.6 (4)
ROETHE Sjur +0:30.5
35:18.0 (7)
+0:31.0
31:08.1 (5)
+1:35.0
34:16.0 (36)
+0:38.5
33:04.5 (7)
CLARA Roland +1:05.5
31:42.5 (18)
+0:31.3
33:12.3 (3)
+1:01.0
33:27.1 (20)
MANIFICAT Maurice +0:21.0
35:08.6 (6)
+1:29.7
32:06.7 (39)
+1:09.5
33:50.5 (17)
+0:58.0
33:24.1 (17)
+0:51.1
34:27.4 (6)
BELOV Evgeniy +0:39.9
35:27.4 (10)
+0:35.9
31:12.9 (8)
+1:48.2
34:29.1 (52)
+1:19.0
33:45.0 (30)
BAUER Lukas +0:50.5
35:38.1 (15)
+0:47.4
31:24.4 (13)
+0:42.8
33:08.8 (8)
+0:35.7
34:12.0 (3)
HALFVARSSON Calle +1:09.5
35:57.1 (23)
+1:35.0
32:12.1 (43)
+0:38.5
33:19.5 (4)
+1:47.6
34:13.6 (50)
KROGH Finn Haagen +0:36.5
35:24.0 (9)
+1:15.3
31:52.3 (30)
+1:12.3
33:53.2 (19)
DUERR Johannes +0:35.1
35:22.7 (8)
+2:22.2
35:03.1 (69)
CHERNOUSOV Ilia +0:51.9
35:39.4 (16)
+0:44.0
31:21.0 (10)
+3:18.2
35:59.1 (85)
+1:07.8
33:33.8 (24)
GAILLARD Jean Marc +0:44.6
35:32.2 (12)
+1:08.9
31:45.9 (24)
+1:45.1
34:26.0 (48)
+1:58.6
34:24.6 (57)
+1:44.2
35:20.5 (32)
+2:07.4
37:57.4 (20)
PILLER COTTRER Pietro +1:32.0
34:13.0 (34)
+1:27.9
33:53.9 (39)
+0:24.6
34:00.9 (2)
+1:24.3
37:14.3 (9)
DOLIDOVICH Sergei +1:29.3
36:16.8 (35)
+0:34.2
31:11.2 (6)
+2:00.6
34:26.6 (60)
+1:53.1
35:29.4 (35)
+1:33.9
37:23.9 (12)
YOSHIDA Keishin +0:44.0
35:31.5 (11)
+1:50.3
34:16.3 (51)
DUVILLARD Robin +0:45.0
35:32.5 (13)
+1:31.5
34:12.4 (33)
+1:02.4
33:28.4 (21)
HARVEY Alex +2:11.8
36:59.3 (56)
+1:24.5
32:01.6 (36)
+0:40.5
33:21.5 (5)
+1:22.0
33:48.1 (34)
+1:19.3
34:55.6 (21)
JESPERSEN Chris Andre +0:59.1
35:46.7 (19)
+1:18.8
33:59.8 (23)
+0:22.0
32:48.0 (4)
BERGER Lars +0:43.6
33:24.6 (8)
+0:00.0
35:50.0 (1)
VYLEGZHANIN Maxim +1:12.0
35:59.6 (27)
+0:50.0
31:27.1 (15)
+1:06.8
33:47.8 (16)
+0:55.0
33:21.0 (15)
+0:55.3
34:31.6 (9)
LIVERS Toni +0:56.5
35:44.1 (17)
+1:47.1
32:24.1 (52)
+1:25.0
34:05.9 (28)
+0:48.7
33:14.7 (12)
+1:07.0
34:43.3 (12)
+2:52.6
38:42.6 (37)
HOFER David +0:45.7
31:22.7 (12)
+0:58.5
33:39.4 (12)
+1:13.8
33:39.8 (27)
FISCHER Remo +1:21.0
36:08.6 (32)
+1:36.0
32:13.0 (46)
+0:41.1
33:22.1 (6)
+0:58.2
33:24.2 (18)
+1:14.8
34:51.1 (15)
+3:03.5
38:53.5 (45)
PERL Curdin +0:45.5
31:22.5 (11)
+1:42.9
34:23.8 (45)
+0:50.8
33:16.8 (14)
+1:15.5
34:51.8 (17)
+2:36.9
38:26.9 (28)
RICHARDSSON Daniel +1:10.5
35:58.1 (25)
+0:50.3
31:27.3 (16)
RICKARDSSON Daniel +1:26.6
34:07.6 (30)
+0:20.0
32:46.1 (3)
+1:22.3
34:58.7 (22)
CHEBOTKO Nikolay +1:03.4
35:50.9 (21)
+1:43.4
32:20.4 (50)
+1:50.2
34:31.1 (53)
+0:58.7
33:24.7 (19)
+1:57.8
35:34.1 (38)
+2:43.2
38:33.2 (31)
BABIKOV Ivan +0:47.5
31:24.6 (14)
+1:41.3
34:22.2 (42)
+1:55.7
34:21.7 (54)
+0:53.7
34:30.0 (8)
LEHTONEN Lari +1:15.1
36:02.7 (29)
+1:06.7
31:43.7 (20)
+1:13.0
33:54.0 (20)
+1:47.1
34:13.1 (49)
REICHELT Tom +1:08.9
35:56.4 (22)
+1:39.0
34:19.9 (39)
+2:14.1
35:50.4 (46)
ANGERER Tobias +1:03.1
33:44.1 (14)
+1:37.9
34:03.9 (44)
+0:52.2
34:28.5 (7)
+0:52.4
36:42.4 (3)
JAKS Martin +1:11.6
35:59.2 (26)
+1:23.1
34:04.1 (26)
+0:55.3
33:21.3 (16)
+1:36.7
35:13.0 (29)
FURGER Roman +4:20.5
39:08.0 (75)
+0:56.9
31:33.9 (17)
+1:46.2
34:27.1 (49)
BING Thomas +1:10.4
35:57.9 (24)
+1:35.9
32:12.9 (45)
JOHNSRUD SUNDBY Martin +0:59.0
33:39.9 (13)
+0:46.3
33:12.3 (10)
+1:50.0
35:26.3 (33)
TSCHARNKE Tim +1:56.6
36:44.1 (46)
+1:08.2
31:45.2 (22)
+0:48.4
33:14.4 (11)
KARNEYENKA Leanid +3:52.9
37:29.2 (63)
+0:35.8
36:25.8 (2)
SEMENOV Michail +1:28.4
36:15.9 (34)
+1:07.7
31:44.7 (21)
+2:08.3
34:34.3 (66)
NOUSIAINEN Ville +2:01.3
32:38.3 (58)
+1:11.3
33:52.3 (18)
+1:09.2
34:45.5 (13)
+1:54.9
37:44.9 (18)
SEDOV Petr +2:03.7
34:44.6 (59)
+0:24.7
32:50.7 (5)
+1:29.8
35:06.2 (26)
VITTOZ Vincent +1:14.0
33:40.1 (28)
+0:39.8
34:16.2 (5)
SVENDSEN Emil Hegle +1:04.8
33:45.7 (15)
DOTZLER Hannes +1:40.0
36:27.5 (39)
+1:08.9
31:45.9 (24)
BOE Tarjei +1:13.0
33:54.0 (20)
BAJCICAK Martin +1:51.4
32:28.4 (53)
+1:16.5
33:57.5 (22)
+2:14.6
34:40.6 (71)
+1:23.0
34:59.3 (23)
+4:12.6
40:02.6 (72)
DI CENTA Giorgio +2:08.3
36:55.8 (54)
+1:39.5
32:16.6 (49)
+1:23.5
34:04.4 (27)
+0:59.8
34:36.2 (10)
+2:23.1
38:13.1 (25)
SOEDERGREN Anders +1:19.6
36:07.2 (31)
+1:23.9
32:00.9 (35)
+1:21.5
34:02.4 (25)
+1:26.4
33:52.4 (36)
+1:24.8
35:01.2 (25)
+1:29.0
37:19.0 (10)
TURYCHEV Sergey +1:19.3
34:00.3 (24)
+1:20.5
33:46.5 (32)
FREEMAN Kris +2:01.2
36:48.7 (50)
+1:21.4
31:58.4 (33)
+1:55.0
34:35.9 (55)
+0:43.0
33:09.1 (9)
+3:05.3
36:41.6 (59)
+3:42.5
39:32.5 (61)
LALLUKKA Juha +0:50.3
33:16.3 (13)
+1:52.5
35:28.8 (34)
+1:29.9
37:19.9 (11)
EDER Johannes +0:58.3
36:48.3 (4)
POLTARANIN Alexey +1:14.2
34:50.5 (14)
KOUKAL Martin +1:42.7
34:08.7 (46)
+1:17.2
34:53.5 (18)
+2:27.5
38:17.5 (26)
JONNIER Emmanuel +1:18.8
34:55.1 (20)
+1:51.9
37:41.9 (17)
CHECCHI Valerio +2:22.2
37:09.7 (58)
+2:15.9
32:52.9 (62)
+1:41.5
34:22.4 (43)
+1:44.9
34:10.9 (48)
+1:17.3
34:53.7 (19)
+3:40.2
39:30.2 (60)
BJOERNDALEN Ole Einar +1:08.0
33:34.0 (25)
+1:36.8
37:26.8 (13)
GOERING Franz +3:09.4
35:50.3 (82)
+2:08.3
34:34.3 (66)
+1:17.9
37:07.9 (6)
LARSSON Mats +1:06.8
33:32.8 (23)
MORIGGL Thomas +1:43.7
32:20.7 (51)
+1:36.7
34:02.7 (43)
+1:23.6
34:59.9 (24)
KOSCHEVOY Yevgeniy +1:28.5
37:18.5 (11)
SHIRIAEV Sergej +1:28.4
37:18.4 (11)
ESTIL Frode +1:46.4
37:36.4 (14)
PUTSKO Olexandr +3:33.5
37:09.8 (62)
+1:47.1
37:37.1 (15)
HOFFMANN Christian +1:50.1
37:40.1 (16)
SOMMERFELDT Rene +1:55.0
35:31.3 (36)
+1:56.2
37:46.2 (19)
MCKEEVER Brian +2:13.7
38:03.7 (21)
DEMENTIEV Eugeni +2:15.7
38:05.7 (22)
CHEREPANOV Sergey +1:57.7
34:23.7 (55)
+2:14.5
35:50.8 (47)
+2:21.8
38:11.8 (23)

Women all – historical results

Name 2013
Davos
2013-02-17
10 km F
2012
Gaellivare
2012-11-24
10 km F
2011
Sjusjoen
2011-11-19
10 km F
2010
Gällivare
2010-11-20
10 km F
2010
Whistler Olympic Park
2010-02-15
10 km F
2007
Sapporo
2007-02-27
10 km F
JOHAUG Therese +0:00.0
26:16.7 (1)
+0:12.6
22:44.4 (2)
+0:58.1
25:20.4 (7)
+1:22.3
25:10.7 (9)
BJOERGEN Marit +0:00.0
22:31.8 (1)
+0:00.0
24:22.3 (1)
+0:00.0
23:48.4 (1)
+0:15.8
25:14.3 (3)
+1:52.2
25:50.6 (22)
KOWALCZYK Justyna +0:08.8
26:25.6 (2)
+1:23.5
23:55.3 (27)
+1:12.3
25:34.6 (10)
+1:15.8
25:04.3 (7)
+0:21.6
25:20.1 (5)
+1:34.0
25:32.5 (18)
KALLA Charlotte +0:19.3
26:36.1 (5)
+0:26.9
22:58.7 (4)
+0:27.1
24:49.4 (2)
+0:41.0
24:29.5 (2)
+0:00.0
24:58.4 (1)
+0:43.5
24:41.9 (5)
STEIRA Kristin Stoermer +0:13.3
26:30.1 (3)
+1:18.8
23:50.6 (25)
+0:43.6
25:05.9 (5)
+0:58.0
24:46.5 (4)
+0:52.0
25:50.5 (8)
+0:35.5
24:33.9 (4)
RANDALL Kikkan +0:25.9
22:57.7 (3)
+0:58.2
25:20.5 (8)
+1:46.4
25:34.8 (19)
WIKEN Emma +0:17.8
26:34.5 (4)
+1:19.8
23:51.6 (26)
SKOFTERUD Vibeke W +0:32.9
23:04.7 (6)
+0:29.0
24:51.3 (3)
+1:00.3
24:48.7 (6)
+1:17.8
26:16.3 (22)
+1:42.3
25:40.7 (21)
TCHEKALEVA Yulia +0:23.8
26:40.6 (6)
+0:46.5
23:18.3 (9)
+1:47.6
25:36.0 (20)
BROOKS Holly +1:10.8
27:27.6 (20)
+0:28.5
23:00.3 (5)
+2:03.2
26:25.5 (36)
+2:19.2
27:17.6 (41)
WENG Heidi +0:40.8
26:57.5 (9)
+1:06.1
23:37.9 (17)
+1:17.8
25:40.1 (13)
SARASOJA-LILJA Riikka +0:39.3
26:56.0 (8)
+1:07.5
23:39.3 (20)
+1:35.2
25:57.5 (20)
ROPONEN Riitta-Liisa +0:51.5
27:08.3 (11)
+0:58.5
23:30.3 (13)
+1:39.0
26:01.3 (21)
+1:54.8
25:43.2 (23)
+0:25.8
25:24.3 (6)
PILLER Marina +0:35.0
26:51.8 (7)
+2:10.2
24:42.0 (55)
+2:26.6
26:48.9 (49)
NISKANEN Kerttu +0:42.3
26:59.1 (10)
+1:04.4
23:36.2 (15)
SMIGUN-VAEHI Kristina +0:06.5
25:05.0 (2)
BERGER Tora +0:43.0
25:05.3 (4)
STEPHEN Elizabeth +0:59.0
27:15.8 (15)
+1:07.6
23:39.4 (21)
+1:30.0
25:52.3 (18)
+1:56.5
25:44.9 (25)
+2:42.7
27:41.1 (49)
HUGUE Coraline +0:52.0
27:08.7 (12)
+1:28.7
24:00.5 (33)
+3:09.0
27:31.3 (61)
+2:34.6
26:23.0 (50)
KRISTOFFERSEN Marthe +1:17.0
23:48.8 (23)
+0:50.0
25:12.3 (6)
+0:58.8
24:47.2 (5)
+2:40.0
27:38.4 (48)
ZELLER Katrin +0:52.3
27:09.1 (13)
+1:26.5
23:58.3 (31)
+1:54.6
26:16.9 (30)
+2:16.3
26:04.7 (37)
+2:01.7
26:00.1 (29)
JACOBSEN Astrid Uhrenholdt +0:56.1
23:27.9 (11)
+1:17.7
25:40.0 (12)
+1:25.5
25:13.9 (11)
HAAG Anna +1:15.5
27:32.2 (23)
+2:11.1
24:42.9 (56)
+1:25.8
25:48.1 (15)
+1:16.3
25:04.8 (8)
+0:20.8
25:19.3 (4)
DIGGINS Jessica +0:54.8
27:11.6 (14)
+1:27.4
23:59.2 (32)
LARSEN Lisa +2:30.2
28:46.9 (47)
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FOLLIS Arianna +0:51.3
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HAGEN Martine Ek +1:56.0
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ZHUKOVA Natalia +1:02.2
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KHRAMTSOVA Ekaterina +1:02.8
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LAHTEENMAKI Krista +1:31.3
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KOROSTELEVA Natalia +2:07.6
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FAIVRE PICON Anouk +1:03.8
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AYMONIER Celia +1:04.0
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SHEVCHENKO Valentina +1:24.3
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BLECKUR Sofia +1:45.2
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HAGA Ragnhild +1:13.3
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HERRMANN Denise +0:56.5
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GASPARIN Selina +1:13.3
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NEUMANNOVA Katerina +0:00.0
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INGEMARSDOTTER Ida +1:04.6
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OESTBERG Ingvild Flugstad +1:25.6
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ISHIDA Masako +1:18.7
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DOTSENKO Anastasia +1:06.5
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SAVIALOVA Olga +0:59.3
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KYLLOENEN Anne +1:06.9
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FESSEL Nicole +1:12.4
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RYDQVIST Maria +1:25.7
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SAARINEN Aino- Kaisa +1:35.5
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BROCARD Elisa +1:48.4
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RUPIL Silvia +1:31.3
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LAUVHAUG Hilde +1:39.6
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MEDVEDEVA Evgenia +0:28.0
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BARTHELEMY Laure +1:41.0
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FALLA Maiken Caspersen +1:43.7
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LONGA Marianna +1:31.6
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SLIND Astrid Oeyre +1:47.8
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SACHENBACHER -STEHLE Evi +1:57.5
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MALAHOVA-SHISHKINA Svetlana +0:55.5
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MAJDIC Petra +1:28.8
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VALBUSA Sabina +1:07.3
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BUCHER Silvana +1:35.0
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JOHANSSON NORGREN Britta +3:40.7
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MALAKHOVA-SHISHKINA Svetlana +1:41.8
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NYSTAD Claudia +1:01.3
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ERIKSSON Mia +1:55.3
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KHAZOVA Irina +1:45.0
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SACHENBACHER STEHLE Evi +0:46.0
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GOESSNER Miriam +1:16.3
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BOEHLER Stefanie +2:14.7
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ROPONEN Riitta Liisa +0:50.0
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OLSSON Anna +1:24.6
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RAJDLOVA Kamila +1:27.8
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SMIGUN Kristina +0:57.8
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GENUIN Magda +2:21.3
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JATSKAJA Oxana +2:17.9
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KUENZEL- NYSTAD Claudia +1:30.1
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TCHEKALEVA Ioulia +1:30.3
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NESTERENKO Lada +3:33.3
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28:06.4 (56)
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STEMLAND Kristin Muerer +1:38.1
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DAHLBERG Anna +1:39.3
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CONFORTOLA Antonella +1:52.5
25:50.9 (23)
LINDBORG Sara +1:34.1
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26:31.6 (54)
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25:52.8 (24)

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February 25, 2013 @ 19:18

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