Tour de Ski Val di Fiemme 5/10 km Classic: Preview & Predictions

Posted by Jan Kocbach, 03 Jan 2014@19:24


The 6th and second last stage in this year’s Tour de Ski is a classic technique interval start race over 5/10 km on a quite tough course with around 170 meters of climb per lap (2 laps for men / 1 lap for women).

With the skiers having 6 tough races in their legs, the time differences might be bigger in this race than usually in this type of race.

Set up your predictions

In the overall Tour de Ski predictions, Roar has taken the lead with 2665 points – 7 small points ahead of Lars Ola Thorud. The fight for victory is tight – with 5 people within 30 points. Set up your predictions here – or read the preview article below first:

Men

The overall leader Martin Johnsrud Sundby is also one of the favourites in the 10 km classic race with his current excellent shape.  At the corresponding 10 km classic race in Kuusamo in November the Tour leader finished 5th – only 12.6 seconds down on the winner Lukas Bauer. Among the Top 10 in Kuusamo, only Bauer (1st), Sundby (5th), Jespersen (7th), Tscharnke (9th) and Legkov (10th – 29.5 seconds behind) are competing in Val di Fiemme. Legkov does however have a strong history in classic interval start races.

Other skiers strong in this discipline are Didrik Tønseth (3rd in 15 km classic interval start in Lillehammer in December last year), Petter Northug (won the 15 km classic in the World Champs in Val di Fiemme last year), Ilia Chernousov (no good results in this discipline in 2012/2013 or 2013/2014, but has earlier been stable in Top 8).

Regarding the overall tour standings, Sundby has a good chance to keep the gap down to his competitors at at least 30-40 seconds also after this stage – and maybe even increasing it if he is fully recovered after the Cortina-Toblach stage and has a good day. Note that there are again 15 – 10 – 5 bonus seconds to Top 3 – and thus this race might give quite significant time differences.

Women

Astrid Uhrenholdt Jacobsen has the overall lead with 44 seconds down to Therese Johaug in second spot.  These two Norwegians are also the biggest favourites for this race based on earlier results – with Johaug having a slight edge over Jacobsen. Johaug finished 2nd in the Kuusamo 5 km classic race – 17 seconds ahead of Jacobsen in 8th.

Jacobsen has however showed impressive shape the last days – and is mentally strong – and thus this fight might be very close. It will also be very important for the overall – as Jacobsen should have a lead of at least a minute to Johaug ahead of the final climb to feel safe.

For the stage victory, also count in the very strong Finnish classic skiers Lahteenmaki (6th in Kuusamo), Niskanen (13th in Kuusamo – but won the classic 10 km mass start in Toblach a few days ago), Saarinen (bad race in Kuusamo, but shows improving shape) and Kylloenen (17th in Kuusamo) in the fight for the stage victory – as well as Heidi Weng (8th in Kuusamo) who starts to get in good classic shape.

Historical results: Men Classic technique, Interval start
Name Lillehammer
2013-12-07
Interval Classic 15 km
Ruka Triple, Kuusamo
2013-11-30
Interval Classic 10 km
Lahti
2013-03-10
Interval Classic 15 km
Toblach
2013-01-04
Interval Classic 5 km
Szklarska Poreba
2012-02-18
Interval Classic 15 km
Otepaa
2012-01-22
Interval Classic 15 km
Toblach
2012-01-03
Interval Classic 5 km
Falun
2011-03-18
Interval Classic 3.3 km
BAUER Lukas + 0:55.7
35:55.7 (19th)
+ 0:00.0
24:43.6 (1st)
+ 0:43.0
35:18.6 (4th)
+ 0:17.3
12:55.2 (8th)
+ 0:24.0
40:36.4 (2nd)
+ 0:03.5
13:53.0 (4th)
+ 0:12.1
11:03.9 (9th)
LEGKOV Alexander + 0:22.2
35:22.2 (6th)
+ 0:29.5
25:13.1 (10th)
+ 1:02.3
35:37.9 (8th)
+ 0:15.7
12:53.6 (5th)
+ 0:57.5
39:45.7 (3rd)
+ 1:14.3
41:26.7 (13th)
+ 0:00.0
13:49.5 (1st)
+ 0:18.3
11:10.1 (14th)
POLTORANIN Alexey + 0:14.2
35:14.2 (2nd)
+ 0:37.5
25:21.1 (16th)
+ 0:31.7
35:07.3 (2nd)
+ 0:00.0
12:37.9 (1st)
+ 1:03.8
39:52.0 (6th)
+ 1:14.3
41:26.7 (13th)
NORTHUG Petter jr. + 0:40.7
35:40.7 (9th)
+ 0:42.4
25:26.0 (18th)
+ 0:00.0
34:35.6 (1st)
+ 0:08.0
12:45.9 (2nd)
+ 0:13.8
14:03.3 (12th)
+ 0:02.9
10:54.7 (2nd)
COLOGNA Dario + 0:08.2
12:46.1 (3rd)
+ 0:19.3
39:07.5 (2nd)
+ 0:00.0
40:12.4 (1st)
+ 0:02.0
13:51.5 (3rd)
+ 0:22.0
11:13.8 (16th)
ROENNING Eldar + 1:21.2
36:21.2 (31st)
+ 0:02.4
24:46.0 (2nd)
+ 1:11.9
35:47.5 (11th)
+ 1:00.4
39:48.6 (5th)
+ 2:47.6
43:00.0 (37th)
+ 0:01.7
13:51.2 (2nd)
+ 0:09.6
11:01.4 (5th)
CHERNOUSOV Ilia + 1:02.2
25:45.8 (46th)
+ 1:26.2
36:01.8 (19th)
+ 0:25.9
13:03.8 (13th)
+ 0:59.5
39:47.7 (4th)
+ 1:02.2
41:14.6 (8th)
+ 0:04.0
13:53.5 (5th)
+ 0:00.0
10:51.8 (1st)
VYLEGZHANIN Maxim + 1:29.1
36:29.1 (39th)
+ 0:25.8
25:09.4 (8th)
+ 1:44.3
36:19.9 (24th)
+ 0:23.4
13:01.3 (10th)
+ 1:46.0
40:34.2 (13th)
+ 1:07.1
41:19.5 (11th)
+ 0:13.2
14:02.7 (11th)
+ 0:04.2
10:56.0 (3rd)
OLSSON Johan + 0:21.4
35:21.4 (5th)
+ 0:35.8
13:13.7 (21st)
+ 0:00.0
38:48.2 (1st)
+ 0:53.4
41:05.8 (7th)
JOHNSRUD SUNDBY Martin + 0:24.9
35:24.9 (7th)
+ 0:12.6
24:56.2 (5th)
+ 0:35.1
35:10.7 (3rd)
+ 1:32.0
40:20.2 (10th)
+ 1:23.6
41:36.0 (18th)
+ 0:26.6
11:18.4 (21st)
JAPAROV Dmitriy + 0:45.2
35:45.2 (14th)
+ 0:05.7
24:49.3 (3rd)
+ 0:13.7
12:51.6 (4th)
+ 0:09.5
13:59.0 (7th)
BESSMERTNYKH Alexander + 0:43.6
35:43.6 (13th)
+ 0:21.4
25:05.0 (6th)
+ 1:07.5
35:43.1 (9th)
+ 0:16.5
12:54.4 (7th)
+ 1:49.1
40:37.3 (14th)
+ 0:17.5
14:07.0 (14th)
GOLBERG Paal + 0:00.0
35:00.0 (1st)
+ 0:07.4
24:51.0 (4th)
+ 2:17.4
41:05.6 (30th)
+ 3:16.1
43:28.5 (45th)
HELLNER Marcus + 0:20.2
35:20.2 (4th)
+ 0:45.0
25:28.6 (21st)
+ 1:33.8
36:09.4 (22nd)
+ 0:31.1
13:09.0 (16th)
+ 1:58.4
40:46.6 (21st)
+ 0:53.2
41:05.6 (6th)
+ 0:51.1
14:40.6 (48th)
GAILLARD Jean Marc + 2:07.1
37:07.1 (59th)
+ 0:42.8
25:26.4 (19th)
+ 1:15.5
35:51.1 (13th)
+ 0:37.6
13:15.5 (25th)
+ 1:27.0
40:15.2 (9th)
+ 1:02.5
41:14.9 (9th)
+ 0:31.0
14:20.5 (26th)
+ 0:21.7
11:13.5 (15th)
RICKARDSSON Daniel + 0:42.3
35:42.3 (10th)
+ 0:47.6
25:31.2 (27th)
+ 0:59.3
35:34.9 (7th)
+ 0:32.5
13:10.4 (19th)
+ 2:33.0
41:21.2 (34th)
+ 2:04.5
42:16.9 (25th)
+ 0:37.5
14:27.0 (29th)
+ 0:13.9
11:05.7 (11th)
MANIFICAT Maurice + 1:34.2
36:34.2 (44th)
+ 0:39.8
25:23.4 (17th)
+ 1:41.8
40:30.0 (12th)
+ 1:25.3
41:37.7 (20th)
+ 0:13.9
14:03.4 (13th)
+ 0:11.0
11:02.8 (6th)
JAUHOJAERVI Sami + 0:36.1
25:19.7 (14th)
+ 1:18.1
35:53.7 (14th)
+ 1:54.0
40:42.2 (16th)
+ 1:02.7
41:15.1 (10th)
+ 0:55.6
14:45.1 (53rd)
+ 0:15.6
11:07.4 (12th)
KERSHAW Devon + 2:03.7
37:03.7 (56th)
+ 1:23.4
26:07.0 (65th)
+ 0:34.4
13:12.3 (20th)
+ 2:15.8
41:04.0 (26th)
+ 0:25.2
40:37.6 (3rd)
+ 0:24.6
14:14.1 (18th)
+ 0:26.8
11:18.6 (22nd)
TEICHMANN Axel + 1:28.5
36:28.5 (38th)
+ 0:35.7
25:19.3 (13th)
+ 1:15.2
40:03.4 (7th)
+ 0:06.0
13:55.5 (6th)
BELOV Evgeniy + 2:15.2
37:15.2 (62nd)
+ 0:35.4
25:19.0 (11th)
+ 1:14.1
41:26.5 (12th)
+ 0:08.2
11:00.0 (4th)
HALFVARSSON Calle + 0:58.6
35:58.6 (20th)
+ 0:49.5
25:33.1 (29th)
+ 1:10.8
35:46.4 (10th)
+ 0:16.1
12:54.0 (6th)
+ 2:13.9
42:26.3 (28th)
+ 0:23.6
11:15.4 (17th)
ANGERER Tobias + 1:45.0
36:45.0 (46th)
+ 1:02.5
25:46.1 (47th)
+ 0:51.1
35:26.7 (5th)
+ 0:32.4
13:10.3 (17th)
+ 2:15.4
41:03.6 (24th)
+ 1:16.3
41:28.7 (15th)
+ 0:56.3
14:45.8 (56th)
+ 0:30.6
11:22.4 (28th)
SEDOV Petr + 0:42.2
40:54.6 (5th)
+ 0:11.7
11:03.5 (7th)
TOENSETH Didrik + 0:15.5
35:15.5 (3rd)
+ 1:21.1
41:33.5 (17th)
JESPERSEN Chris Andre + 0:31.8
35:31.8 (8th)
+ 0:24.4
25:08.0 (7th)
VOLZHENTSEV Stanislav + 0:46.8
35:46.8 (15th)
+ 0:41.3
40:53.7 (4th)
KROGH Finn Haagen + 0:42.4
35:42.4 (11th)
+ 1:36.8
26:20.4 (78th)
+ 0:19.3
12:57.2 (9th)
+ 0:26.0
11:17.8 (18th)
HEIKKINEN Matti + 0:53.9
35:53.9 (17th)
+ 1:01.9
25:45.5 (45th)
+ 2:14.9
36:50.5 (42nd)
+ 2:12.9
42:25.3 (27th)
+ 0:26.6
14:16.1 (22nd)
+ 0:11.9
11:03.7 (8th)
NOECKLER Dietmar + 1:01.4
36:01.4 (22nd)
+ 0:59.1
25:42.7 (41st)
+ 0:54.3
35:29.9 (6th)
+ 0:36.3
13:14.2 (23rd)
+ 2:28.8
41:17.0 (33rd)
+ 0:57.4
14:46.9 (58th)
TSCHARNKE Tim + 1:01.6
36:01.6 (23rd)
+ 0:26.0
25:09.6 (9th)
+ 1:18.9
35:54.5 (16th)
+ 0:42.5
14:32.0 (33rd)
TURYSHEV Sergey + 0:29.0
13:06.9 (14th)
+ 0:10.1
13:59.6 (9th)
PASINI Fabio + 2:09.7
37:09.7 (60th)
+ 1:16.9
26:00.5 (60th)
+ 2:08.5
36:44.1 (38th)
+ 1:55.3
40:43.5 (17th)
+ 0:12.3
14:01.8 (10th)
JOENSSON Emil + 1:19.5
35:55.1 (17th)
+ 0:47.2
14:36.7 (42nd)
+ 0:12.2
11:04.0 (10th)
GOERING Franz + 1:21.9
40:10.1 (8th)
KRIUKOV Nikita + 0:09.9
13:59.4 (8th)
Historical results: Women Classic technique, Interval start
Name Lillehammer
2013-12-07
Interval Classic 10 km
Ruka Triple, Kuusamo
2013-11-30
Interval Classic 5 km
Lahti
2013-03-10
Interval Classic 10 km
Toblach
2013-01-04
Interval Classic 3 km
Szklarska Poreba
2012-02-18
Interval Classic 10 km
Otepaa
2012-01-22
Interval Classic 10 km
Toblach
2012-01-03
Interval Classic 3 km
Falun
2011-03-18
Interval Classic 2.5 km
KOWALCZYK Justyna + 0:00.0
24:59.4 (1st)
+ 0:00.0
13:33.7 (1st)
+ 0:00.0
25:38.9 (1st)
+ 0:00.0
10:08.1 (1st)
+ 0:00.0
28:43.9 (1st)
+ 0:00.0
29:44.8 (1st)
+ 0:03.9
10:53.1 (2nd)
+ 0:10.6
9:12.2 (2nd)
BJOERGEN Marit + 0:25.6
25:25.0 (3rd)
+ 0:03.0
13:36.7 (2nd)
+ 0:23.1
26:02.0 (2nd)
+ 0:36.1
29:20.0 (2nd)
+ 0:21.9
30:06.7 (2nd)
+ 0:00.0
10:49.2 (1st)
+ 0:00.0
9:01.6 (1st)
JOHAUG Therese + 0:39.0
25:38.4 (4th)
+ 0:14.6
13:48.3 (3rd)
+ 0:28.2
26:07.1 (4th)
+ 0:22.2
10:30.3 (6th)
+ 0:50.4
29:34.3 (3rd)
+ 0:40.5
30:25.3 (3rd)
+ 0:21.2
11:10.4 (6th)
+ 0:12.9
9:14.5 (3rd)
JACOBSEN Astrid Uhrenholdt + 1:28.1
26:27.5 (11th)
+ 0:33.9
14:07.6 (8th)
+ 1:09.3
26:48.2 (9th)
+ 0:17.1
10:25.2 (3rd)
+ 2:12.1
30:56.0 (13th)
+ 1:02.4
30:47.2 (5th)
+ 0:15.1
11:04.3 (3rd)
+ 0:26.2
9:27.8 (9th)
KALLA Charlotte + 0:12.4
25:11.8 (2nd)
+ 0:18.7
13:52.4 (5th)
+ 1:08.0
26:46.9 (7th)
+ 0:25.3
10:33.4 (9th)
+ 2:37.7
31:21.6 (20th)
+ 0:58.7
30:43.5 (4th)
+ 0:34.0
11:23.2 (17th)
+ 0:25.7
9:27.3 (8th)
LAHTEENMAKI Krista + 1:25.9
26:25.3 (10th)
+ 0:26.3
14:00.0 (6th)
+ 1:01.2
26:40.1 (6th)
+ 0:16.5
10:24.6 (2nd)
+ 2:21.1
31:05.0 (15th)
+ 1:32.5
31:17.3 (7th)
+ 0:23.2
11:12.4 (7th)
+ 0:41.4
9:43.0 (18th)
FESSEL Nicole + 1:46.8
26:46.2 (15th)
+ 1:01.0
14:34.7 (24th)
+ 1:24.0
27:02.9 (11th)
+ 1:44.5
30:28.4 (7th)
+ 2:07.2
31:52.0 (16th)
+ 0:17.0
11:06.2 (4th)
+ 0:24.5
9:26.1 (6th)
NISKANEN Kerttu + 1:23.9
26:23.3 (8th)
+ 0:46.3
14:20.0 (13th)
+ 0:55.2
26:34.1 (5th)
+ 0:27.9
10:36.0 (11th)
+ 1:41.9
31:26.7 (9th)
+ 0:33.4
11:22.6 (16th)
+ 0:36.1
9:37.7 (16th)
WENG Heidi + 1:06.8
26:06.2 (6th)
+ 0:39.3
14:13.0 (9th)
+ 0:25.5
26:04.4 (3rd)
+ 0:27.3
10:35.4 (10th)
+ 2:30.8
31:14.7 (18th)
+ 2:20.1
32:04.9 (22nd)
+ 1:21.1
12:10.3 (52nd)
+ 0:53.1
9:54.7 (28th)
SAARINEN Aino- Kaisa + 1:38.7
26:38.1 (13th)
+ 1:15.7
14:49.4 (45th)
+ 1:08.2
26:47.1 (8th)
+ 0:21.1
10:29.2 (5th)
+ 1:21.1
31:05.9 (6th)
+ 0:33.1
11:22.3 (15th)
+ 0:26.5
9:28.1 (11th)
RANDALL Kikkan + 1:50.4
26:49.8 (16th)
+ 0:47.7
14:21.4 (15th)
+ 2:10.0
27:48.9 (28th)
+ 0:24.2
10:32.3 (7th)
+ 1:46.0
30:29.9 (8th)
+ 1:55.9
31:40.7 (15th)
+ 0:43.0
11:32.2 (29th)
+ 0:41.7
9:43.3 (19th)
KYLLOENEN Anne + 1:31.9
26:31.3 (12th)
+ 0:48.9
14:22.6 (17th)
+ 1:32.8
27:11.7 (12th)
+ 0:17.7
10:25.8 (4th)
+ 3:06.1
31:50.0 (28th)
+ 2:29.5
32:14.3 (26th)
+ 0:35.9
11:25.1 (22nd)
+ 0:50.5
9:52.1 (25th)
KRISTOFFERSEN Marthe + 2:31.8
27:31.2 (27th)
+ 1:39.0
30:22.9 (5th)
+ 1:45.3
31:30.1 (11th)
+ 0:25.0
11:14.2 (9th)
+ 0:28.1
9:29.7 (12th)
SKOFTERUD Vibeke W + 1:53.6
26:53.0 (17th)
+ 0:47.7
14:21.4 (15th)
+ 1:20.3
30:04.2 (4th)
+ 1:38.0
31:22.8 (8th)
+ 0:49.2
9:50.8 (24th)
TCHEKALEVA Yulia + 1:03.1
26:02.5 (5th)
+ 0:18.4
13:52.1 (4th)
+ 0:38.6
10:46.7 (19th)
+ 0:43.9
9:45.5 (21st)
HAAG Anna + 0:32.4
10:40.5 (13th)
+ 1:53.0
30:36.9 (9th)
+ 0:38.0
11:27.2 (23rd)
+ 0:17.4
9:19.0 (4th)
STEIRA Kristin Stoermer + 1:24.0
26:23.4 (9th)
+ 1:01.2
14:34.9 (26th)
+ 2:12.4
27:51.3 (32nd)
+ 0:40.5
10:48.6 (23rd)
+ 1:56.0
30:39.9 (10th)
+ 2:27.1
32:11.9 (25th)
+ 0:38.7
11:27.9 (24th)
+ 0:35.3
9:36.9 (14th)
ZELLER Katrin + 2:45.6
27:45.0 (35th)
+ 1:11.9
14:45.6 (39th)
+ 1:51.2
27:30.1 (21st)
+ 0:44.5
10:52.6 (31st)
+ 1:56.4
30:40.3 (11th)
+ 2:07.8
31:52.6 (17th)
+ 0:30.1
11:19.3 (12th)
+ 0:26.3
9:27.9 (10th)
HERRMANN Denise + 1:57.1
26:56.5 (18th)
+ 0:46.4
14:20.1 (14th)
+ 1:48.9
27:27.8 (20th)
+ 0:25.2
10:33.3 (8th)
+ 4:10.7
32:54.6 (49th)
+ 0:30.4
11:19.6 (13th)
+ 1:27.7
10:29.3 (52nd)
SMUTNA Katerina + 2:05.2
27:04.6 (20th)
+ 0:49.3
14:23.0 (18th)
+ 1:57.3
27:36.2 (23rd)
+ 0:40.3
10:48.4 (21st)
+ 2:56.2
31:40.1 (24th)
+ 2:21.8
32:06.6 (24th)
+ 0:23.9
11:13.1 (8th)
+ 0:55.0
9:56.6 (32nd)
BJORNSEN Sadie + 1:18.3
26:17.7 (7th)
+ 0:29.0
14:02.7 (7th)
+ 1:43.4
27:22.3 (18th)
+ 3:05.9
32:50.7 (34th)
ISHIDA Masako + 2:42.4
27:41.8 (34th)
+ 0:42.2
14:15.9 (10th)
+ 1:43.0
27:21.9 (17th)
+ 1:43.6
30:27.5 (6th)
+ 0:44.7
11:33.9 (31st)
BOEHLER Stefanie + 0:42.5
10:50.6 (25th)
+ 2:29.2
31:13.1 (17th)
+ 0:17.2
11:06.4 (5th)
+ 0:54.5
9:56.1 (30th)
DOTSENKO Anastasia + 1:19.2
14:52.9 (50th)
+ 0:36.6
10:44.7 (17th)
+ 2:50.6
31:34.5 (22nd)
+ 0:26.3
11:15.5 (10th)
+ 0:48.9
9:50.5 (23rd)
KUZIUKOVA Olga + 2:33.1
27:32.5 (29th)
+ 1:20.5
26:59.4 (10th)
+ 0:29.5
10:37.6 (12th)
FOLLIS Arianna + 0:22.8
9:24.4 (5th)
LONGA Marianna + 0:25.4
9:27.0 (7th)
ROTCHEVA Olga + 1:41.9
31:26.7 (9th)

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