Race Preview & XC-Predictions: Olympic Classic Interval start races

Posted by Jan Kocbach, 12 Feb 2014@19:14

There is only one race in this year’s Olympics with interval start – the 10/15 km classic. This is the highlight of the Olympics for fans of the good old Cross Country skiing tradition – where it is up to the athletes to fight against the clock.

Men

Actually the three last winners in classic interval start races in the World Cup are said to not be on the start list

The start list for the men’s race is not yet public (so some of the skiers mentioned below might not actually be on the start), but it is already known that a few of the big pre-Olympics favourites will not be on the start list. Actually the three last winners in classic interval start races in the World Cup are said to not be on the start list: Alexander Legkov (winner in the 15 km classic World Cup race in Toblach less than two weeks ago), Petter Northug (winner of the 10 km classic World Cup race in Val di Fiemme in early January) and Pål Golberg (winner of the 15 km classic World Cup race in Lillehammer in December). In addition 4th placed Vylegzhanin from the 30 km Skiathlon is also said to not be starting.

With these top skiers not on the start, the following are the main favourites,

  • Dario Cologna won the Skiathlon – and skied very well until he fell twice(!) on the sprint. 2nd in Toblach on the same discipline less than 2 weeks ago.
  • Alexey Poltaranin is a real classic expert who has shown good shape several times this season – although he looked even stronger last year. Still – don’t forget his victory in the 15 km classic mass start during Tour de Ski in Lenzerheide and the 2nd place on the 15km classic interval start in Lillehammer in December.
  • Martin Johnsrud Sundby – previously a specialist in classic interval start races – now even better in free technique. His last (and only) victory in a classic interval start race in the World Cup is back in 2008 in Kuusamo – he is still among the big favourites.
  • Bauer proved in November with his victory on the 10 km classic in Kuusamo that he is back in shape for the Olympic season

  • Lukas Bauer proved in November with his victory on the 10 km classic in Kuusamo that he is back in shape for the Olympic season – although he has not impressed massively the rest of the season (only 15th in Toblach).  Can be very strong – but could also fail.
  • Eldar Rønning has been very good (2nd in Kuusamo) and far behind (31st in Lillehammer) in classic interval start races this year. Toblach (12th) was a step in the right direction. Rønning may be fantastic if he has found his top shape – but nothing is 100% sure for the Norwegian classic expert.
  • Didrik Tønseth – 3rd in Lillehammer 15 km classic – may do it again in Sochi.
  • Dark horses: Johan Olsson – says he is out of shape – may still be fantastic (winner 50 km mass start classic at World Champs last year), Matti Heikkinen (suddenly makes a fantastic appearance when not expected – count in the Finn!), Ilia Chernousov, Chris Jespersen, Daniel Rickardsson, Marcus Hellner (great shape – classic not his specialty if  it is soft), Dmitriy Japarov.
Women

Justyna Kowalczyk would normally be the big favourite in a classic interval start race, but the Polish skier has struggled with injuries

In the women’s class we have the usual fight between Marit Bjørgen, Justyna Kowalczyk and Therese Johaug – with the addition of Charlotte Kalla who is actually a real gold candidate. The remaining Norwegians and the Finns will fight for the medals.

  • Justyna Kowalczyk would normally be the big favourite in a classic interval start race, but the Polish skier has struggled with injuries the last weeks – and although she could turn out to be very close to 100% – there is a uncertainty with respect to her chances. Still a hot winner candidate.
  • Marit Bjørgen showed at the Skiathlon that she is in top shape – and is probably the main favourite for the 10 km classic.
  • Therese Johaug was not in her best shape at the Skiathlon – but she later said that she did not sleep all night due to the circumstances surrounding Jacobsen’s brother – and thus Johaug might actually be in top shape on Thursday. Count her in the fight for gold – if she has the early November shape of Beitostølen nobody can beat her.
  • Charlotte Kalla impressed with a 2nd place in Lillehammer at the 10 km classic – only 12 seconds behind Kowalczyk and ahead of all Norwegians. And that with difficult and soft conditions. Another top classic race in Toblach with a 3rd place. Looking at her statistics – she has increased her capacity in classic significantly this year. Definitely a winner candidate.
  • Kalla has increased her capacity in classic significantly this year. Definitely a winner candidate

  • Aino-Kaiso Saarinen:  Classic specialist who was on top on the 10 km classic in 2008-2009 – but showed on the Skiathlon that she is on her way to top shape. Can challenge the “Big 4″ for the medals. Gold seems impossible – but ….
  • Astrid Uhrenholdt Jacobsen: Impressive shape this year – and has done some very good interval start races. Medal candidate!
  • Heidi Weng: Another Norwegian medal candidate – finished 3rd in Lahti on the 10 km classic interval start race last year.
  • Outsiders: Kerttu Niskanen, Krista Lahteenmaki, Ishida Masako, Yulia Tchekaleva, Nicole Fessel, Anna Haag, Sadie Bjornsen.
Historical results: Men Classic technique, Interval start
Name Toblach/Dobbiaco
2014-02-01
Interval Classic 15 km
Val di Fiemme
2014-01-04
Interval Classic 10 km
Lillehammer
2013-12-07
Interval Classic 15 km
Ruka Triple, Kuusamo
2013-11-30
Interval Classic 10 km
Lahti
2013-03-10
Interval Classic 15 km
Szklarska Poreba
2012-02-18
Interval Classic 15 km
Otepaa
2012-01-22
Interval Classic 15 km
Oslo
2011-03-01
Interval Classic 15 km
JOHNSRUD SUNDBY Martin + 0:58.8
38:01.5 (10th)
+ 0:09.7
24:55.3 (2nd)
+ 0:24.9
35:24.9 (7th)
+ 0:12.6
24:56.2 (5th)
+ 0:35.1
35:10.7 (3rd)
+ 1:32.0
40:20.2 (10th)
+ 1:23.6
41:36.0 (18th)
+ 0:31.9
38:46.6 (3rd)
LEGKOV Alexander + 0:00.0
37:02.7 (1st)
+ 1:06.3
25:51.9 (18th)
+ 0:22.2
35:22.2 (6th)
+ 0:29.5
25:13.1 (10th)
+ 1:02.3
35:37.9 (8th)
+ 0:57.5
39:45.7 (3rd)
+ 1:14.3
41:26.7 (13th)
+ 1:59.2
40:13.9 (20th)
BAUER Lukas + 1:11.6
38:14.3 (15th)
+ 0:55.7
35:55.7 (19th)
+ 0:00.0
24:43.6 (1st)
+ 0:43.0
35:18.6 (4th)
+ 0:24.0
40:36.4 (2nd)
+ 0:55.0
39:09.7 (7th)
NORTHUG Petter jr. + 0:48.3
37:51.0 (6th)
+ 0:00.0
24:45.6 (1st)
+ 0:40.7
35:40.7 (9th)
+ 0:42.4
25:26.0 (18th)
+ 0:00.0
34:35.6 (1st)
COLOGNA Dario + 0:02.9
37:05.6 (2nd)
+ 0:19.3
39:07.5 (2nd)
+ 0:00.0
40:12.4 (1st)
+ 2:11.8
40:26.5 (25th)
POLTORANIN Alexey + 1:01.8
38:04.5 (11th)
+ 0:14.2
35:14.2 (2nd)
+ 0:37.5
25:21.1 (16th)
+ 0:31.7
35:07.3 (2nd)
+ 1:03.8
39:52.0 (6th)
+ 1:14.3
41:26.7 (13th)
+ 2:29.9
40:44.6 (31st)
ROENNING Eldar + 1:07.6
38:10.3 (12th)
+ 1:21.2
36:21.2 (31st)
+ 0:02.4
24:46.0 (2nd)
+ 1:11.9
35:47.5 (11th)
+ 1:00.4
39:48.6 (5th)
+ 2:47.6
43:00.0 (37th)
+ 0:13.3
38:28.0 (2nd)
OLSSON Johan + 0:21.4
35:21.4 (5th)
+ 0:00.0
38:48.2 (1st)
+ 0:53.4
41:05.8 (7th)
+ 1:38.4
39:53.1 (17th)
HELLNER Marcus + 0:17.6
37:20.3 (3rd)
+ 0:20.2
35:20.2 (4th)
+ 0:45.0
25:28.6 (21st)
+ 1:33.8
36:09.4 (22nd)
+ 1:58.4
40:46.6 (21st)
+ 0:53.2
41:05.6 (6th)
+ 2:45.9
41:00.6 (34th)
GOLBERG Paal + 2:38.9
39:41.6 (45th)
+ 0:00.0
35:00.0 (1st)
+ 0:07.4
24:51.0 (4th)
+ 2:17.4
41:05.6 (30th)
+ 3:16.1
43:28.5 (45th)
HEIKKINEN Matti + 2:14.8
39:17.5 (33rd)
+ 0:49.6
25:35.2 (9th)
+ 0:53.9
35:53.9 (17th)
+ 1:01.9
25:45.5 (45th)
+ 2:14.9
36:50.5 (42nd)
+ 2:12.9
42:25.3 (27th)
+ 0:00.0
38:14.7 (1st)
VOLZHENTSEV Stanislav + 0:52.6
25:38.2 (12th)
+ 0:46.8
35:46.8 (15th)
+ 0:41.3
40:53.7 (4th)
+ 0:36.6
38:51.3 (4th)
HARVEY Alex + 0:27.4
37:30.1 (5th)
+ 0:35.5
25:21.1 (5th)
+ 0:50.2
35:50.2 (16th)
+ 0:49.9
25:33.5 (30th)
+ 2:14.8
36:50.4 (41st)
+ 1:51.2
40:39.4 (15th)
+ 1:24.2
41:36.6 (19th)
CHERNOUSOV Ilia + 1:33.0
38:35.7 (22nd)
+ 0:50.2
25:35.8 (10th)
+ 1:02.2
25:45.8 (46th)
+ 1:26.2
36:01.8 (19th)
+ 0:59.5
39:47.7 (4th)
+ 1:02.2
41:14.6 (8th)
JAPAROV Dmitriy + 0:23.8
37:26.5 (4th)
+ 0:45.2
35:45.2 (14th)
+ 0:05.7
24:49.3 (3rd)
JESPERSEN Chris Andre + 0:16.0
25:01.6 (3rd)
+ 0:31.8
35:31.8 (8th)
+ 0:24.4
25:08.0 (7th)
JAUHOJAERVI Sami + 1:22.0
26:07.6 (31st)
+ 0:36.1
25:19.7 (14th)
+ 1:18.1
35:53.7 (14th)
+ 1:54.0
40:42.2 (16th)
+ 1:02.7
41:15.1 (10th)
+ 0:44.2
38:58.9 (5th)
TOENSETH Didrik + 1:54.9
38:57.6 (28th)
+ 0:44.3
25:29.9 (7th)
+ 0:15.5
35:15.5 (3rd)
+ 1:21.1
41:33.5 (17th)
TEICHMANN Axel + 1:10.9
38:13.6 (14th)
+ 0:58.6
25:44.2 (15th)
+ 1:28.5
36:28.5 (38th)
+ 0:35.7
25:19.3 (13th)
+ 1:15.2
40:03.4 (7th)
+ 1:28.1
39:42.8 (13th)
VYLEGZHANIN Maxim + 1:29.1
36:29.1 (39th)
+ 0:25.8
25:09.4 (8th)
+ 1:44.3
36:19.9 (24th)
+ 1:46.0
40:34.2 (13th)
+ 1:07.1
41:19.5 (11th)
+ 1:11.0
39:25.7 (10th)
BESSMERTNYKH Alexander + 2:40.4
39:43.1 (46th)
+ 0:43.6
35:43.6 (13th)
+ 0:21.4
25:05.0 (6th)
+ 1:07.5
35:43.1 (9th)
+ 1:49.1
40:37.3 (14th)
GAILLARD Jean Marc + 1:13.1
38:15.8 (16th)
+ 1:35.5
26:21.1 (43rd)
+ 2:07.1
37:07.1 (59th)
+ 0:42.8
25:26.4 (19th)
+ 1:15.5
35:51.1 (13th)
+ 1:27.0
40:15.2 (9th)
+ 1:02.5
41:14.9 (9th)
RICKARDSSON Daniel + 0:57.9
38:00.6 (9th)
+ 1:26.1
26:11.7 (36th)
+ 0:42.3
35:42.3 (10th)
+ 0:47.6
25:31.2 (27th)
+ 0:59.3
35:34.9 (7th)
+ 2:33.0
41:21.2 (34th)
+ 2:04.5
42:16.9 (25th)
+ 3:12.4
41:27.1 (42nd)
ANGERER Tobias + 3:00.7
40:03.4 (54th)
+ 1:45.0
36:45.0 (46th)
+ 1:02.5
25:46.1 (47th)
+ 0:51.1
35:26.7 (5th)
+ 2:15.4
41:03.6 (24th)
+ 1:16.3
41:28.7 (15th)
+ 1:10.1
39:24.8 (9th)
DOTZLER Hannes + 1:10.0
38:12.7 (13th)
+ 0:38.0
25:23.6 (6th)
+ 1:05.8
36:05.8 (26th)
+ 0:54.5
25:38.1 (34th)
+ 1:18.8
35:54.4 (15th)
+ 1:19.8
41:32.2 (16th)
+ 3:29.2
41:43.9 (47th)
MANIFICAT Maurice + 2:32.4
39:35.1 (42nd)
+ 1:34.2
36:34.2 (44th)
+ 0:39.8
25:23.4 (17th)
+ 1:41.8
40:30.0 (12th)
+ 1:25.3
41:37.7 (20th)
+ 0:48.8
39:03.5 (6th)
ROETHE Sjur + 1:15.0
38:17.7 (17th)
+ 0:29.0
25:14.6 (4th)
+ 1:50.9
36:50.9 (49th)
+ 0:47.2
25:30.8 (25th)
+ 1:45.2
36:20.8 (27th)
+ 1:59.8
40:14.5 (21st)
HALFVARSSON Calle + 1:19.4
38:22.1 (19th)
+ 0:50.4
25:36.0 (11th)
+ 0:58.6
35:58.6 (20th)
+ 0:49.5
25:33.1 (29th)
+ 1:10.8
35:46.4 (10th)
+ 2:13.9
42:26.3 (28th)
NELSON Lars + 0:48.6
37:51.3 (7th)
+ 1:01.9
36:01.9 (24th)
+ 0:35.4
25:19.0 (11th)
+ 2:24.6
37:00.2 (47th)
KERSHAW Devon + 2:29.0
39:31.7 (39th)
+ 2:02.2
26:47.8 (52nd)
+ 2:03.7
37:03.7 (56th)
+ 1:23.4
26:07.0 (65th)
+ 2:15.8
41:04.0 (26th)
+ 0:25.2
40:37.6 (3rd)
NOECKLER Dietmar + 3:01.0
40:03.7 (55th)
+ 1:05.9
25:51.5 (17th)
+ 1:01.4
36:01.4 (22nd)
+ 0:59.1
25:42.7 (41st)
+ 0:54.3
35:29.9 (6th)
+ 2:28.8
41:17.0 (33rd)
TSCHARNKE Tim + 2:24.1
39:26.8 (35th)
+ 1:01.6
36:01.6 (23rd)
+ 0:26.0
25:09.6 (9th)
+ 1:18.9
35:54.5 (16th)
SEDOV Petr + 2:28.6
27:14.2 (57th)
+ 0:42.2
40:54.6 (5th)
NOUSIAINEN Ville + 1:09.4
25:55.0 (21st)
+ 1:50.3
36:50.3 (48th)
+ 0:54.1
25:37.7 (33rd)
+ 1:56.8
36:32.4 (32nd)
+ 2:16.6
42:29.0 (29th)
+ 0:56.3
39:11.0 (8th)
DUERR Johannes + 1:25.4
38:28.1 (21st)
+ 0:45.3
25:30.9 (8th)
+ 1:03.6
25:47.2 (48th)
NISKANEN Iivo + 0:54.9
37:57.6 (8th)
GOERING Franz + 1:21.9
40:10.1 (8th)
Historical results: Women Classic technique, Interval start
Name Toblach/Dobbiaco
2014-02-01
Interval Classic 10 km
Lillehammer
2013-12-07
Interval Classic 10 km
Lahti
2013-03-10
Interval Classic 10 km
Szklarska Poreba
2012-02-18
Interval Classic 10 km
Otepaa
2012-01-22
Interval Classic 10 km
Oslo
2011-02-28
Interval Classic 10 km
Drammen
2011-02-19
Interval Classic 10 km
Otepää
2011-01-22
Interval Classic 10 km
BJOERGEN Marit + 0:00.0
26:54.2 (1st)
+ 0:25.6
25:25.0 (3rd)
+ 0:23.1
26:02.0 (2nd)
+ 0:36.1
29:20.0 (2nd)
+ 0:21.9
30:06.7 (2nd)
+ 0:00.0
27:39.3 (1st)
+ 0:00.0
27:31.9 (1st)
+ 0:00.0
27:02.1 (1st)
KOWALCZYK Justyna + 0:47.2
27:41.4 (5th)
+ 0:00.0
24:59.4 (1st)
+ 0:00.0
25:38.9 (1st)
+ 0:00.0
28:43.9 (1st)
+ 0:00.0
29:44.8 (1st)
+ 0:04.1
27:43.4 (2nd)
+ 0:17.3
27:49.2 (2nd)
+ 0:32.0
27:34.1 (2nd)
JOHAUG Therese + 0:36.7
27:30.9 (2nd)
+ 0:39.0
25:38.4 (4th)
+ 0:28.2
26:07.1 (4th)
+ 0:50.4
29:34.3 (3rd)
+ 0:40.5
30:25.3 (3rd)
+ 0:23.7
28:03.0 (4th)
+ 1:06.9
28:38.8 (4th)
+ 0:41.6
27:43.7 (3rd)
SAARINEN Aino- Kaisa + 1:13.6
28:07.8 (9th)
+ 1:38.7
26:38.1 (13th)
+ 1:08.2
26:47.1 (8th)
+ 1:21.1
31:05.9 (6th)
+ 0:09.7
27:49.0 (3rd)
+ 0:23.6
27:55.5 (3rd)
+ 0:45.3
27:47.4 (4th)
KALLA Charlotte + 0:42.9
27:37.1 (3rd)
+ 0:12.4
25:11.8 (2nd)
+ 1:08.0
26:46.9 (7th)
+ 2:37.7
31:21.6 (20th)
+ 0:58.7
30:43.5 (4th)
+ 1:07.4
28:46.7 (11th)
+ 1:20.5
28:52.4 (9th)
NISKANEN Kerttu + 0:53.8
27:48.0 (6th)
+ 1:23.9
26:23.3 (8th)
+ 0:55.2
26:34.1 (5th)
+ 1:41.9
31:26.7 (9th)
+ 0:49.7
28:29.0 (8th)
+ 1:41.8
29:13.7 (14th)
+ 1:39.6
28:41.7 (10th)
LAHTEENMAKI Krista + 1:25.9
26:25.3 (10th)
+ 1:01.2
26:40.1 (6th)
+ 2:21.1
31:05.0 (15th)
+ 1:32.5
31:17.3 (7th)
+ 0:23.9
28:03.2 (5th)
+ 1:11.0
28:42.9 (7th)
SKOFTERUD Vibeke W + 1:53.6
26:53.0 (17th)
+ 1:20.3
30:04.2 (4th)
+ 1:38.0
31:22.8 (8th)
+ 1:00.9
28:40.2 (9th)
+ 1:33.3
29:05.2 (13th)
+ 1:17.4
28:19.5 (5th)
JACOBSEN Astrid Uhrenholdt + 0:55.9
27:50.1 (7th)
+ 1:28.1
26:27.5 (11th)
+ 1:09.3
26:48.2 (9th)
+ 2:12.1
30:56.0 (13th)
+ 1:02.4
30:47.2 (5th)
+ 1:23.3
28:55.2 (10th)
WENG Heidi + 0:44.8
27:39.0 (4th)
+ 1:06.8
26:06.2 (6th)
+ 0:25.5
26:04.4 (3rd)
+ 2:30.8
31:14.7 (18th)
+ 2:20.1
32:04.9 (22nd)
+ 2:36.2
30:08.1 (34th)
STEIRA Kristin Stoermer + 1:01.6
27:55.8 (8th)
+ 1:24.0
26:23.4 (9th)
+ 2:12.4
27:51.3 (32nd)
+ 1:56.0
30:39.9 (10th)
+ 2:27.1
32:11.9 (25th)
+ 1:03.6
28:42.9 (10th)
+ 2:02.8
29:34.7 (19th)
+ 1:50.6
28:52.7 (12th)
ISHIDA Masako + 1:34.0
28:28.2 (12th)
+ 2:42.4
27:41.8 (34th)
+ 1:43.0
27:21.9 (17th)
+ 1:43.6
30:27.5 (6th)
+ 1:33.6
29:12.9 (17th)
+ 1:15.7
28:47.6 (8th)
+ 1:44.6
28:46.7 (11th)
TCHEKALEVA Yulia + 1:03.1
26:02.5 (5th)
+ 1:12.5
28:51.8 (12th)
+ 1:24.2
28:56.1 (11th)
+ 1:17.6
28:19.7 (6th)
FESSEL Nicole + 1:43.5
28:37.7 (14th)
+ 1:46.8
26:46.2 (15th)
+ 1:24.0
27:02.9 (11th)
+ 1:44.5
30:28.4 (7th)
+ 2:07.2
31:52.0 (16th)
+ 2:06.6
29:38.5 (22nd)
HAAG Anna + 2:11.1
29:05.3 (28th)
+ 1:53.0
30:36.9 (9th)
+ 1:20.8
29:00.1 (14th)
+ 1:28.1
29:00.0 (12th)
+ 1:18.8
28:20.9 (7th)
KRISTOFFERSEN Marthe + 2:31.8
27:31.2 (27th)
+ 1:39.0
30:22.9 (5th)
+ 1:45.3
31:30.1 (11th)
+ 1:59.2
29:31.1 (18th)
+ 1:50.8
28:52.9 (13th)
RANDALL Kikkan + 1:45.2
28:39.4 (15th)
+ 1:50.4
26:49.8 (16th)
+ 2:10.0
27:48.9 (28th)
+ 1:46.0
30:29.9 (8th)
+ 1:55.9
31:40.7 (15th)
+ 2:41.9
30:21.2 (32nd)
LONGA Marianna + 0:28.9
28:08.2 (7th)
+ 1:08.2
28:40.1 (6th)
MURANEN Pirjo + 0:26.8
28:06.1 (6th)
+ 1:44.7
29:16.6 (15th)
+ 1:52.7
28:54.8 (14th)
ROPONEN Riitta-Liisa + 2:19.5
29:13.7 (32nd)
+ 1:47.6
31:32.4 (12th)
+ 1:43.6
29:22.9 (18th)
+ 1:20.4
28:22.5 (8th)
BJORNSEN Sadie + 1:48.4
28:42.6 (17th)
+ 1:18.3
26:17.7 (7th)
+ 1:43.4
27:22.3 (18th)
+ 3:05.9
32:50.7 (34th)
+ 2:27.5
30:06.8 (29th)
+ 3:18.7
30:50.6 (51st)
MAJDIC Petra + 1:16.4
28:55.7 (13th)
+ 1:59.0
29:30.9 (17th)
+ 1:38.7
28:40.8 (9th)
BOEHLER Stefanie + 1:29.4
28:23.6 (10th)
+ 2:29.2
31:13.1 (17th)
+ 2:50.2
30:22.1 (41st)
+ 1:57.2
28:59.3 (16th)
INGEMARSDOTTER Ida + 2:54.0
27:53.4 (40th)
+ 3:34.9
32:18.8 (42nd)
+ 2:22.8
30:02.1 (28th)
+ 1:07.2
28:39.1 (5th)
ROTCHEVA Olga + 1:41.9
31:26.7 (9th)
KUZIUKOVA Olga + 2:33.1
27:32.5 (29th)
+ 1:20.5
26:59.4 (10th)

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