Otepää Sprint Heat Statistics

Posted by Jan Kocbach, 23 Jan 2011@11:56

Ola Vigen Hattestad was the fastest man of the day when adding all heat times – but could do nothing with Brandsdal in the final sprint. Brandsdal had a slower semifinal, and that might have helped get some extra power in the final?

Among the women, the winner Petra Majdic proved that she really is the best in a classic sprint at present. Also when summing up the heat times she was fastest – a good 5 seconds ahead of Brodin and Falla.

Men (unofficial results from live timing!)
Eirik BRANDSDAL. NOR 03:25 03:27 03:22 03:21 (13:37)
Ola Vigen HATTESTAD. NOR 03:25 03:23 03:21 03:19 (13:30)
Nikita KRIUKOV. RUS 03:25 03:27 03:24 03:20 (13:38)
Emil JOENSSON. SWE 03:26 03:24 03:22 03:22 (13:36)
Daniel RICKARDSSON. SWE 03:26 03:25 03:18 03:26 (13:37)
Jesper MODIN. SWE 03:26 03:24 03:17 03:22 (13:31)
Petter NORTHUG. NOR 03:27 03:22 03:24 (10:16)
Jens ERIKSSON. SWE 03:28 03:18 03:27 (10:14)
Teodor PETERSON. SWE 03:28 03:22 03:27 (10:18)
Mikhail NOVICHIKHIN. RUS 03:28 03:19 03:21 (10:09)
Yuichi ONDA. JPN 03:29 03:23 03:24 (10:18)
Kein EINASTE. EST 03:39 03:21 03:24 (10:25)
Karel TAMMJARV. EST 03:21 03:25 (06:47)
Siim SELLIS. EST 03:21 03:25 (06:47)
Peeter KUMMEL. EST 03:21 03:26 (06:48)
Eldar ROENNING. NOR 03:22 03:24 (06:47)
Matias STRANDVALL. FIN 03:22 03:22 (06:45)
Ville NOUSIAINEN. FIN 03:22 03:26 (06:49)
Simen OESTENSEN. NOR 03:22 03:25 (06:48)
Anti SAAREPUU. EST 03:23 03:26 (06:50)
Valerio LECCARDI. SUI 03:23 03:27 (06:51)
Robin BRYNTESSON. SWE 03:23 03:27 (06:51)
Timo Andre BAKKEN. NOR 03:23 03:25 (06:49)
Andrey PARFENOV. RUS 03:23 03:26 (06:50)
Nikolay CHEBOTKO. KAZ 03:24 03:27 (06:52)
Christoph EIGENMANN. SUI 03:24 03:23 (06:49)
Michail DEVJATIAROV. RUS 03:24 03:26 (06:52)
Alexander PANZHINSKIY. RUS 03:25 03:22 (06:48)
Josef WENZL. GER 03:25 03:26 (06:52)
Vahur TEPPAN. EST 03:27 03:26 (06:54)
Len VALJAS. CAN 03:27 (03:28)
Niklas COLLIANDER. FIN 03:27 (03:28)
Patrick JOHANSSON. SWE 03:27 (03:28)
Alexey POLTORANIN. KAZ 03:27 (03:28)
Sebastian EISENLAUER. GER 03:27 (03:28)
Axel TEICHMANN. GER 03:28 (03:28)
Yevgeniy KOSCHEVOY. KAZ 03:28 (03:28)
Timo SIMONLATSER. EST 03:28 (03:29)
Daniel HEUN. GER 03:28 (03:29)
Anssi PENTSINEN. FIN 03:28 (03:29)
Paal GOLBERG. NOR 03:29 (03:29)
Lasse PAAKKONEN. FIN 03:29 (03:29)
Dmitriy JAPAROV. RUS 03:29 (03:29)
Aivar REHEMAA. EST 03:29 (03:30)
Joeri KINDSCHI. SUI 03:30 (03:30)
Maciej KRECZMER. POL 03:30 (03:31)
Sergey CHEREPANOV. KAZ 03:31 (03:31)
Tim TSCHARNKE. GER 03:31 (03:31)
Raido RANKEL. EST 03:31 (03:31)
Keishin YOSHIDA. JPN 03:31 (03:31)
Algo KAERP. EST 03:31 (03:32)
Tord Asle GJERDALEN. NOR 03:31 (03:32)
Janek VALLIMAE. EST 03:32 (03:32)
Andrus VEERPALU. EST 03:32 (03:33)
Curdin PERL. SUI 03:32 (03:33)
Lari LEHTONEN. FIN 03:32 (03:33)
Jovian HEDIGER. SUI 03:33 (03:33)
Modestas VAICIULIS. LTU 03:33 (03:34)
Aleksei NOVOSELKI. LTU 03:34 (03:34)
Peter MLYNAR. SVK 03:34 (03:34)
Jesse COCKNEY. CAN 03:34 (03:35)
Manuel HIRNER. AUT 03:34 (03:35)
Alexander LASUTKIN. BLR 03:35 (03:35)
Andres KOLLO. EST 03:35 (03:36)
Markus BADER. AUT 03:36 (03:36)
Michael SOMPPI. CAN 03:37 (03:37)
Erkki JALLAI. EST 03:38 (03:39)
Alexandr IONENKOW. BLR 03:38 (03:39)
Graeme KILLICK. CAN 03:38 (03:39)
Sebastian GAZUREK. POL 03:40 (03:40)
Rinalds KOSTJUKOVS. LAT 03:41 (03:41)
Arvis LIEPINS. LAT 03:41 (03:42)
Veselin TZINZOV. BUL 03:42 (03:42)
Andrew YOUNG. GBR 03:42 (03:42)
Yevgeniy VELICHKO. KAZ 03:43 (03:43)
Callum WATSON. AUS 03:44 (03:45)
Ewan WATSON. AUS 03:50 (03:50)
Women (unofficial results from live timing!)
Petra MAJDIC. SLO 03:07 03:10 03:05 03:09 (12:32)
Hanna BRODIN. SWE 03:07 03:09 03:04 03:14 (12:37)
Maiken Caspersen FALLA. NOR 03:09 03:10 03:05 03:12 (12:37)
Justyna KOWALCZYK. POL 03:11 03:10 03:05 03:14 (12:41)
Lina ANDERSSON. SWE 03:12 03:10 03:04 03:14 (12:42)
Katja VISNAR. SLO 03:13 03:09 03:05 03:09 (12:38)
Marit BJOERGEN. NOR 03:10 03:04 03:08 (09:24)
Pirjo MURANEN. FIN 03:11 03:06 03:11 (09:29)
Daria GAIAZOVA. CAN 03:11 03:07 03:15 (09:34)
Hanna FALK. SWE 03:11 03:06 03:08 (09:27)
Aino Kaisa SAARINEN. FIN 03:14 03:05 03:10 (09:30)
Ingvild Flugstad OESTBERG. NOR 03:05 03:16 (06:23)
Hanna KOLB. GER 03:05 03:15 (06:21)
Madoka NATSUMI. JPN 03:06 03:12 (06:19)
Kari Vikhagen GJEITNES. NOR 03:06 03:16 (06:23)
Stefanie BOEHLER. GER 03:07 03:15 (06:23)
Katerina SMUTNA. AUT 03:07 03:12 (06:21)
Astrid Uhrenholdt JACOBSEN. NOR 03:08 03:14 (06:23)
Yulia TCHEKALEVA. RUS 03:08 03:18 (06:26)
Doris TRACHSEL. SUI 03:08 03:18 (06:26)
Anne KYLLOENEN. FIN 03:08 03:17 (06:26)
Denise HERRMANN. GER 03:08 03:15 (06:24)
Kirsi PERAELAE. FIN 03:09 03:13 (06:24)
Kerttu NISKANEN. FIN 03:10 03:14 (06:25)
Lucia ANGER. GER 03:11 03:16 (06:28)
Jennie OEBERG. SWE 03:11 03:17 (06:30)
Elena SOBOLEVA. RUS 03:12 03:15 (06:28)
Chandra CRAWFORD. CAN 03:13 03:14 (06:28)
Piret PORMEISTER. EST 03:14 03:16 (06:31)
Britta JOHANSSON NORGREN. SWE 03:11 (03:11)
Seraina BONER. SUI 03:18 (03:18)
Daria GODOVANICHENKO. RUS 03:18 (03:19)
Alysson MARSHALL. CAN 03:18 (03:19)
Masako ISHIDA. JPN 03:19 (03:20)
Marthe KRISTOFFERSEN. NOR 03:20 (03:20)
Julia IVANOVA. RUS 03:20 (03:20)
Elena KOLOMINA. KAZ 03:20 (03:20)
Tatjana ROSHINA. KAZ 03:21 (03:21)
Katrin ZELLER. GER 03:21 (03:22)
Oxana JATSKAJA. KAZ 03:21 (03:22)
Svetlana NIKOLAEVA. RUS 03:21 (03:22)
Triin OJASTE. EST 03:22 (03:22)
Valentina NOVIKOVA. RUS 03:22 (03:23)
Laura ROHTLA. EST 03:23 (03:23)
Esther BOTTOMLEY. AUS 03:24 (03:24)
Mia ERIKSSON. SWE 03:24 (03:25)
Valentina SHEVCHENKO. UKR 03:26 (03:26)
Kaija UDRAS. EST 03:27 (03:27)
Ewelina MARCISZ. POL 03:28 (03:28)
Heidi WIDMER. CAN 03:29 (03:29)
Monika GYORGY. ROU 03:30 (03:30)
Lina KREIVENAITE. LTU 03:36 (03:37)

Otepää sprint predictions: Roar on top

Posted by Jan Kocbach, 23 Jan 2011@11:47

Marit Bjørgen disappointed the WhoWins predictors once again – only three people had another skier than Majdic on top of their predictions list – and only two the winner Majdic. Not any easier for the men: Only one predictor had the winner Brandsdal on top.

On top of the predictions today was Roar with 745 points:

Otepää race prediction results

Posted by Jan Kocbach, 22 Jan 2011@17:16

Very easy women – very difficult men. That’s the short summary of the race predictions for today’s classic races with interval start in Otepää. Very few doubted that Marit Bjørgen would win – on the other hand nobody suspected that Eldar Rønning would win. Northug and Poltoranin were the disappointments today.

On top of the predictions today was Luca D with 938 points – 32 points ahead of pally. Both had a very good score among the women – but had more problems among the men.

Later on alternative results with a proposed set of new rules will be presented.

Otepää Classic races: Splits analysis

Posted by Jan Kocbach, 22 Jan 2011@15:14


Eldar Rønning took the victory in the mens 15 km classic in Otepää today after a very strong finish (close to flat line in the illustration above – splits are after 1.1, 2.5, 5, 6.1, 7.5, 10, 11.1 and 12.5 km). At 11.1 km there was still a tight fight between Rønning and Vylegzhanin – with Rickardsson and Johnsrud Sundby right behind.

Vylegzhanin was very strong from 10 km and up to 11.1 km – but it looks like he used too much power in the first part of the last loop – loosing a lot of time the both Rønning and the others in to top the last few kilometer. Rønning was stronger than all of the others in the last part – the only ones close were Hellner, Teichmann and Jaks. Just as earlier this season, Teichmann however came too late to mix in in the top of the field.

In the womens class, Marit Bjørgen crushed everybody again (splits at 1.1 km, 2.5 km, 5 km, 6.1 km and 7.5 km  in the figure below). Kowalczyk was faster at the two first splits, but had no chance to keep the pace of Bjørgen as the race went one.

Some interesting observations from the splits today:

  • Eldar Rønning, Martin Jaks and Alex Teichmann were the men with strong finishes (see illustration below).
  • Martin Johnsrud Sundby, Petter Northug, Vladislav Skobelev and Eugeniev Belov were the men who lost a lot in the end (see illustration below).
  • In the womens class, there is a large group of skiers with approximately the same race development who are around 2 minutes behind. This is were the fight for the positions is – far behind Bjørgen.

Explore the race yourself in these interactive splits diagrams:

See also results from the XC predictions here.


Men

Split 1
1. 03:05 Stanislav VOLZHENTSEV RUS
2. 03:05 +00:01 Aivar REHEMAA EST
3. 03:06 +00:01 Petter NORTHUG NOR
4. 03:06 +00:01 Martin JOHNSRUD SUNDBY NOR
5. 03:07 +00:02 Manuel HIRNER AUT
6. 03:07 +00:02 Maxim VYLEGZHANIN RUS
7. 03:07 +00:02 Vladislav SKOBELEV RUS
8. 03:07 +00:03 Odd-Bjoern HJELMESET NOR
9. 03:08 +00:03 Marcus HELLNER SWE
10. 03:08 +00:03 Jesse COCKNEY CAN
11. 03:08 +00:03 Daniel RICKARDSSON SWE
12. 03:09 +00:04 Martin JAKS CZE
20. 03:10 +00:05 Andrus VEERPALU EST
23. 03:11 +00:06 Eldar ROENNING NOR
Split 2
1. 03:08 Martin JOHNSRUD SUNDBY NOR
2. 03:11 +00:03 Maxim VYLEGZHANIN RUS
3. 03:12 +00:04 Evgeniy BELOV RUS
4. 03:12 +00:04 Marcus HELLNER SWE
5. 03:13 +00:05 Eldar ROENNING NOR
6. 03:13 +00:05 Jens ERIKSSON SWE
7. 03:13 +00:05 Artem ZHMURKO RUS
8. 03:13 +00:05 Vladislav SKOBELEV RUS
9. 03:14 +00:07 Jens FILBRICH GER
10. 03:15 +00:08 Alexey VITSENKO RUS
11. 03:15 +00:08 Petter NORTHUG NOR
21. 03:17 +00:09 Andrus VEERPALU EST
23. 03:17 +00:10 Daniel RICKARDSSON SWE
32. 03:19 +00:12 Martin JAKS CZE
Split 3
1. 05:44 Martin JOHNSRUD SUNDBY NOR
2. 05:45 +00:01 Eldar ROENNING NOR
3. 05:46 +00:03 Petter NORTHUG NOR
4. 05:47 +00:03 Andrus VEERPALU EST
5. 05:48 +00:04 Daniel RICKARDSSON SWE
6. 05:50 +00:06 Aivar REHEMAA EST
7. 05:51 +00:07 Marcus HELLNER SWE
8. 05:51 +00:07 Maxim VYLEGZHANIN RUS
9. 05:51 +00:08 Algo KAERP EST
10. 05:52 +00:08 Jens FILBRICH GER
11. 05:52 +00:08 Martin JAKS CZE
Split 4
1. 03:31 Daniel RICKARDSSON SWE
2. 03:33 +00:02 Maxim VYLEGZHANIN RUS
3. 03:35 +00:03 Nikolay CHEBOTKO KAZ
4. 03:35 +00:04 Martin JOHNSRUD SUNDBY NOR
5. 03:36 +00:04 Marcus HELLNER SWE
6. 03:37 +00:05 Stanislav VOLZHENTSEV RUS
7. 03:37 +00:05 Evgeniy BELOV RUS
8. 03:37 +00:05 Martin JAKS CZE
9. 03:38 +00:06 Vladislav SKOBELEV RUS
10. 03:39 +00:07 Jens FILBRICH GER
11. 03:39 +00:08 Curdin PERL SUI
13. 03:40 +00:08 Eldar ROENNING NOR
16. 03:40 +00:09 Andrus VEERPALU EST
Split 5
1. 03:15 Nikolay CHEBOTKO KAZ
2. 03:15 +00:00 Eldar ROENNING NOR
3. 03:16 +00:01 Maxim VYLEGZHANIN RUS
4. 03:16 +00:01 Marcus HELLNER SWE
5. 03:19 +00:04 Martin JOHNSRUD SUNDBY NOR
6. 03:20 +00:05 Andrus VEERPALU EST
7. 03:21 +00:06 Vladislav SKOBELEV RUS
8. 03:21 +00:06 Daniel RICKARDSSON SWE
9. 03:21 +00:06 Stanislav VOLZHENTSEV RUS
10. 03:21 +00:06 Jens FILBRICH GER
11. 03:21 +00:07 Martin BAJCICAK SVK
14. 03:22 +00:08 Martin JAKS CZE
Split 6
1. 05:49 Eldar ROENNING NOR
2. 05:50 +00:01 Andrus VEERPALU EST
3. 05:52 +00:03 Daniel RICKARDSSON SWE
4. 05:53 +00:04 Martin JAKS CZE
5. 05:57 +00:08 Martin JOHNSRUD SUNDBY NOR
6. 05:57 +00:08 Jens FILBRICH GER
7. 05:57 +00:09 Aivar REHEMAA EST
8. 05:57 +00:09 Maxim VYLEGZHANIN RUS
9. 05:58 +00:09 Curdin PERL SUI
10. 05:58 +00:09 Nikolay CHEBOTKO KAZ
11. 05:59 +00:10 Marcus HELLNER SWE
Split 7
1. 03:35 Maxim VYLEGZHANIN RUS
2. 03:37 +00:02 Daniel RICKARDSSON SWE
3. 03:37 +00:02 Hannes DOTZLER GER
4. 03:37 +00:02 Eldar ROENNING NOR
5. 03:38 +00:03 Martin JAKS CZE
6. 03:38 +00:03 Andrus VEERPALU EST
7. 03:38 +00:03 Andy KUEHNE GER
8. 03:38 +00:04 Vladislav SKOBELEV RUS
9. 03:39 +00:04 Marcus HELLNER SWE
10. 03:39 +00:05 Axel TEICHMANN GER
11. 03:40 +00:06 Odd-Bjoern HJELMESET NOR
Split 8
1. 03:16 Eldar ROENNING NOR
2. 03:19 +00:03 Marcus HELLNER SWE
3. 03:19 +00:03 Axel TEICHMANN GER
4. 03:20 +00:04 Andrus VEERPALU EST
5. 03:20 +00:04 Maxim VYLEGZHANIN RUS
6. 03:20 +00:05 Nikolay CHEBOTKO KAZ
7. 03:23 +00:07 Martin JAKS CZE
8. 03:23 +00:08 Evgeniy BELOV RUS
9. 03:24 +00:08 Curdin PERL SUI
10. 03:24 +00:08 Daniel RICKARDSSON SWE
11. 03:24 +00:08 Hannes DOTZLER GER
Split 9
1. 05:41 Martin JAKS CZE
2. 05:43 +00:02 Eldar ROENNING NOR
3. 05:45 +00:04 Axel TEICHMANN GER
4. 05:45 +00:04 Daniel RICKARDSSON SWE
5. 05:46 +00:05 Petter NORTHUG NOR
6. 05:48 +00:07 Marcus HELLNER SWE
7. 05:48 +00:07 Alexey POLTORANIN KAZ
8. 05:49 +00:08 Ville NOUSIAINEN FIN
9. 05:49 +00:08 Tord Asle GJERDALEN NOR
10. 05:51 +00:10 Andrus VEERPALU EST
11. 05:51 +00:10 Jens ERIKSSON SWE
21. 05:56 +00:15 Maxim VYLEGZHANIN RUS
Overall (unofficial results from live timing)
1. 37:27 Eldar ROENNING NOR
2. 37:42 +00:15 Daniel RICKARDSSON SWE
3. 37:45 +00:18 Maxim VYLEGZHANIN RUS
4. 37:46 +00:18 Marcus HELLNER SWE
5. 37:52 +00:25 Andrus VEERPALU EST
6. 37:54 +00:26 Martin JAKS CZE
7. 38:02 +00:34 Martin JOHNSRUD SUNDBY NOR
8. 38:04 +00:37 Petter NORTHUG NOR
9. 38:15 +00:48 Jens FILBRICH GER
10. 38:19 +00:51 Stanislav VOLZHENTSEV RUS
11. 38:19 +00:52 Curdin PERL SUI
12. 38:22 +00:54 Nikolay CHEBOTKO KAZ
13. 38:23 +00:56 Vladislav SKOBELEV RUS
14. 38:26 +00:59 Axel TEICHMANN GER
15. 38:26 +00:59 Evgeniy BELOV RUS
16. 38:32 +01:05 Tobias ANGERER GER
17. 38:34 +01:07 Aivar REHEMAA EST
18. 38:38 +01:11 Jens ERIKSSON SWE
19. 38:39 +01:12 Odd-Bjoern HJELMESET NOR
20. 38:43 +01:15 Hannes DOTZLER GER
21. 38:46 +01:19 Anders SOEDERGREN SWE
22. 38:49 +01:22 Tord Asle GJERDALEN NOR
23. 38:54 +01:27 Mathias FREDRIKSSON SWE
24. 38:56 +01:29 Ville NOUSIAINEN FIN
25. 38:57 +01:30 Sjur ROETHE NOR
26. 39:02 +01:35 Sergey CHEREPANOV KAZ
27. 39:03 +01:36 Algo KAERP EST
28. 39:03 +01:36 Keishin YOSHIDA JPN
29. 39:08 +01:41 Jaak MAE EST
30. 39:09 +01:42 Tim TSCHARNKE GER
31. 39:10 +01:43 Lari LEHTONEN FIN
32. 39:10 +01:43 Yevgeniy VELICHKO KAZ
33. 39:13 +01:45 Simen OESTENSEN NOR
34. 39:14 +01:47 Peeter KUMMEL EST
35. 39:14 +01:47 Vincent VITTOZ FRA

Women

Split 1
1. 03:24 Justyna KOWALCZYK POL
2. 03:24 +00:00 Marit BJOERGEN NOR
3. 03:24 +00:00 Therese JOHAUG NOR
4. 03:26 +00:01 Aino Kaisa SAARINEN FIN
5. 03:32 +00:07 Pirjo MURANEN FIN
6. 03:33 +00:09 Yulia TCHEKALEVA RUS
7. 03:34 +00:10 Valentina SHEVCHENKO UKR
8. 03:34 +00:10 Petra MAJDIC SLO
9. 03:35 +00:10 Kerttu NISKANEN FIN
10. 03:35 +00:11 Marthe KRISTOFFERSEN NOR
11. 03:35 +00:11 Masako ISHIDA JPN
13. 03:36 +00:11 Vibeke W. SKOFTERUD NOR
Split 2
1. 03:30 Justyna KOWALCZYK POL
2. 03:33 +00:03 Marit BJOERGEN NOR
3. 03:38 +00:08 Therese JOHAUG NOR
4. 03:39 +00:09 Anna HAAG SWE
5. 03:40 +00:10 Vibeke W. SKOFTERUD NOR
6. 03:41 +00:10 Aino Kaisa SAARINEN FIN
7. 03:43 +00:13 Valentina NOVIKOVA RUS
8. 03:43 +00:13 Yulia TCHEKALEVA RUS
9. 03:44 +00:14 Stefanie BOEHLER GER
10. 03:45 +00:15 Britta JOHANSSON NORGREN SWE
11. 03:46 +00:16 Alija IKSANOVA RUS
Split 3
1. 06:15 Marit BJOERGEN NOR
2. 06:24 +00:09 Aino Kaisa SAARINEN FIN
3. 06:25 +00:10 Justyna KOWALCZYK POL
4. 06:28 +00:13 Vibeke W. SKOFTERUD NOR
5. 06:32 +00:17 Therese JOHAUG NOR
6. 06:32 +00:17 Riitta-Liisa ROPONEN FIN
7. 06:33 +00:18 Petra MAJDIC SLO
8. 06:35 +00:20 Anna HAAG SWE
9. 06:35 +00:20 Yulia TCHEKALEVA RUS
10. 06:37 +00:22 Marthe KRISTOFFERSEN NOR
11. 06:38 +00:23 Pirjo MURANEN FIN
Split 4
1. 03:54 Marit BJOERGEN NOR
2. 03:59 +00:06 Justyna KOWALCZYK POL
3. 04:00 +00:07 Aino Kaisa SAARINEN FIN
4. 04:02 +00:08 Therese JOHAUG NOR
5. 04:05 +00:11 Riitta-Liisa ROPONEN FIN
6. 04:06 +00:12 Vibeke W. SKOFTERUD NOR
7. 04:06 +00:12 Kristin Stoermer STEIRA NOR
8. 04:07 +00:13 Yulia TCHEKALEVA RUS
9. 04:08 +00:14 Anna HAAG SWE
10. 04:09 +00:16 Pirjo MURANEN FIN
11. 04:10 +00:16 Alija IKSANOVA RUS
Split 5
1. 03:36 Therese JOHAUG NOR
2. 03:38 +00:02 Marit BJOERGEN NOR
3. 03:45 +00:09 Vibeke W. SKOFTERUD NOR
4. 03:46 +00:09 Justyna KOWALCZYK POL
5. 03:48 +00:12 Anna HAAG SWE
6. 03:48 +00:12 Masako ISHIDA JPN
7. 03:50 +00:13 Kristin Stoermer STEIRA NOR
8. 03:50 +00:13 Yulia TCHEKALEVA RUS
9. 03:50 +00:14 Valentina NOVIKOVA RUS
10. 03:51 +00:15 Aino Kaisa SAARINEN FIN
11. 03:52 +00:16 Alija IKSANOVA RUS
Split 6
1. 06:18 Marit BJOERGEN NOR
2. 06:27 +00:09 Aino Kaisa SAARINEN FIN
3. 06:29 +00:12 Justyna KOWALCZYK POL
4. 06:31 +00:13 Therese JOHAUG NOR
5. 06:32 +00:14 Yulia TCHEKALEVA RUS
6. 06:35 +00:17 Riitta-Liisa ROPONEN FIN
7. 06:35 +00:17 Petra MAJDIC SLO
8. 06:36 +00:18 Kerttu NISKANEN FIN
9. 06:36 +00:18 Anna HAAG SWE
10. 06:37 +00:19 Pirjo MURANEN FIN
11. 06:38 +00:20 Masako ISHIDA JPN
21. 06:46 +00:28 Vibeke W. SKOFTERUD NOR
Overall (unofficial results from live timing)
1. 27:02 Marit BJOERGEN NOR
2. 27:34 +00:32 Justyna KOWALCZYK POL
3. 27:44 +00:42 Therese JOHAUG NOR
4. 27:47 +00:45 Aino Kaisa SAARINEN FIN
5. 28:20 +01:17 Vibeke W. SKOFTERUD NOR
6. 28:20 +01:18 Yulia TCHEKALEVA RUS
7. 28:21 +01:19 Anna HAAG SWE
8. 28:41 +01:39 Petra MAJDIC SLO
9. 28:42 +01:40 Kerttu NISKANEN FIN
10. 28:47 +01:45 Masako ISHIDA JPN
11. 28:53 +01:51 Kristin Stoermer STEIRA NOR
12. 28:53 +01:51 Marthe KRISTOFFERSEN NOR
13. 28:55 +01:53 Pirjo MURANEN FIN
14. 28:57 +01:55 Marte ELDEN NOR
15. 28:59 +01:57 Stefanie BOEHLER GER
16. 28:59 +01:57 Alija IKSANOVA RUS
17. 29:02 +01:59 Valentina NOVIKOVA RUS
18. 29:06 +02:04 Katrin ZELLER GER
19. 29:18 +02:16 Britta JOHANSSON NORGREN SWE
20. 29:24 +02:22 Riikka SARASOJA FIN
21. 29:26 +02:24 Valentina SHEVCHENKO UKR
22. 29:26 +02:24 Paulina MACIUSZEK POL
23. 29:29 +02:27 Svetlana NIKOLAEVA RUS
24. 29:36 +02:34 Sofia BLECKUR SWE
25. 29:39 +02:37 Svetlana MALAKHOVA-SHISHKINA KAZ
26. 29:41 +02:38 Doris TRACHSEL SUI
27. 29:42 +02:40 Mariya GUSCHINA RUS
28. 29:50 +02:48 Seraina BONER SUI
29. 29:50 +02:48 Elena KOLOMINA KAZ
30. 29:52 +02:50 Katerina SMUTNA AUT
31. 29:58 +02:56 Sara LINDBORG SWE
32. 30:01 +02:59 Alena SANNIKOVA BLR
33. 30:06 +03:03 Monique SIEGEL GER
34. 30:06 +03:04 Lina ANDERSSON SWE
35. 30:11 +03:09 Oxana JATSKAJA KAZ

Liberec: Tricky race predictions

Posted by Jan Kocbach, 15 Jan 2011@15:41

Very tricky race predictions today due to disappointing results from Petukhov, Bjørgen and Follis. We got a shared victory between pally and Ivan Banov in today’s predictions – with a historic low number of points – 535 points.

Sprint heat statistics

Only splits for the women today. Kikkan Randall had an excellent day – both winning the race and having the fastest overall time when summing all of the heat times. Of the six finalists, Celine Brun-Lie saved most power due to her slower qualification-time.

Liberec Sprint heat statistics

Posted by Jan Kocbach, 15 Jan 2011@15:30

Kikkan Randall had an excellent day – both winning the race and having the fastest overall time when summing all of the heat times. Of the six finalists, Celine Brun-Lie saved most power due to her slower qualification-time.

Below you find Sprint heat statistics from the women’s sprint in Liberec. For the men’s sprint there was something strange with some of the heat-times from FIS-ski, and results are therefore not included.

Results women (unofficial results from live timing!)
Kikkan RANDALL. USA 02:37 02:36 02:39 02:44 (10:39)
Hanna FALK. SWE 02:38 02:37 02:40 02:43 (10:40)
Celine BRUN-LIE. NOR 02:38 02:39 02:39 02:50 (10:47)
Petra MAJDIC. SLO 02:38 02:37 02:39 02:47 (10:42)
Maiken Caspersen FALLA. NOR 02:38 02:37 02:38 02:45 (10:41)
Laure BARTHELEMY. FRA 02:38 02:39 02:39 02:47 (10:46)
Jennie OEBERG. SWE 02:38 02:39 02:45 (08:05)
Marianna LONGA. ITA 02:39 02:40 02:46 (08:06)
Marit BJOERGEN. NOR 02:40 02:41 02:39 (08:01)
Hanna BRODIN. SWE 02:40 02:44 02:47 (08:12)
Mari EIDE. NOR 02:41 02:43 02:47 (08:13)
Katja VISNAR. SLO 02:43 02:42 02:46 (08:13)
Vesna FABJAN. SLO 02:39 02:47 (05:28)
Arianna FOLLIS. ITA 02:40 02:48 (05:28)
Daria GAIAZOVA. CAN 02:42 02:47 (05:30)
Magda GENUIN. ITA 02:42 02:48 (05:31)
Kari Vikhagen GJEITNES. NOR 02:43 02:46 (05:30)
Valentina NOVIKOVA. RUS 02:43 02:49 (05:33)
Silvana BUCHER. SUI 02:43 02:50 (05:35)
Hanna KOLB. GER 02:43 02:46 (05:30)
Pirjo MURANEN. FIN 02:44 02:45 (05:31)
Eva NYVLTOVA. CZE 02:45 02:49 (05:35)
Karolina GROHOVA. CZE 02:46 02:50 (05:37)
Mari LAUKKANEN. FIN 02:47 02:50 (05:38)
Maria GROENVOLL. NOR 02:48 02:49 (05:38)
Kerttu NISKANEN. FIN 02:49 02:51 (05:40)
Anne KYLLOENEN. FIN 02:49 02:48 (05:38)
Mia ERIKSSON. SWE 02:49 02:50 (05:40)
Chandra CRAWFORD. CAN 02:57 02:48 (05:46)
Laurien VAN DER GRAF. SUI 02:45 (02:46)
Manon LOCATELLI. FRA 02:51 (02:52)
Kirsi PERAELAE. FIN 02:52 (02:52)
Esther BOTTOMLEY. AUS 02:52 (02:52)
Emilie VINA. FRA 02:52 (02:53)
Elisa BROCARD. ITA 02:53 (02:53)
Lina ANDERSSON. SWE 02:53 (02:53)
Natalja NARYSHKINA. RUS 02:53 (02:53)
Magdalena PAJALA. SWE 02:53 (02:54)
Gaia VUERICH. ITA 02:54 (02:55)
Denise HERRMANN. GER 02:55 (02:56)
Alenka CEBASEK. SLO 02:57 (02:57)
Caroline WEIBEL. FRA 02:57 (02:57)
Alina KASHINA. RUS 02:57 (02:57)
Piret PORMEISTER. EST 02:58 (02:58)
Teodora MALCHEVA. BUL 02:59 (02:59)
Jitka PESINOVA. CZE 03:01 (03:01)
Lina KREIVENAITE. LTU 03:02 (03:02)
Martyna GALEWICZ. POL 03:05 (03:06)

Overall Tour de Ski predictions: Results

Posted by Jan Kocbach, 09 Jan 2011@16:00

Congratulations to Qstoffe who took the overall victory in the Tour de Ski predictions! Fighting with more than 100 others, Qstoffe came up from behind and took the victory with 6007 points – more than 100 points ahead of Mats L in second and with a big gap down to Gigi in third.

Looking at the overall results, also big compliments to Ole-Johan in 10th spot who is the best of the ones with only 7 predictions. He has an average points of 775 – 15 points better than Qstoffe’s 750 points on average.

# Name Total points Average points Min points Maxpoints # predictions
1 qstoffe 6007 750 482 1112 8 predictions
2 Mats L 5903 737 528 1025 8 predictions
3 Gigi 5750 718 554 945 8 predictions
4 geraldo13 5705 713 395 987 8 predictions
5 Christopher Tassava 5634 704 484 1028 8 predictions
6 tom 5551 693 475 1092 8 predictions
7 DukeC 5517 689 439 1092 8 predictions
8 Mountainmums 5505 688 455 985 8 predictions
9 Anders & Maria H 5487 685 299 1075 8 predictions
10 Ole-Johan 5428 775 528 1219 7 predictions

The winner of today’s predictions was smeagol with 1280 points – this is also a new record number of points for the WhoWins predictions!  Smeagol hit the big jackpot, getting all the women right, and also all men except for number 4 (where Smeagol tipped Gaillard instead of Perl. Compliments to Smeagol for that achievement!

Going forward after the Tour de Ski, there will probably be some changes in the rules for the WhoWins predictions based on comments from the readers. Here is one suggestion for a new set of rules:
  • Instead of doubling the number of points for a correct predicted position, there will be a bonus of 50 points if you have number 1 correct, 30 points for number 2 and 20 points for number 3.
  • Skiers which are not among the favourites will give extra points. It looks like the best way to do it is that all skiers are grouped in two groups – the favourites and the non-favourites. For all non-favourites, you get double points for your predictions. When setting up your predictions, you can see graphically which skiers are in the favourite-group and which are outside. This will probably be based on FIS-points / previous results, and only change a few times within each season. Also, there will not be different groups for sprint/distance (difficult to set up technically).  I can imagine having around 25-30 skiers in the favourite group?
  • If you do not set up predictions for a race, your predictions go on to the next race unaltered.
  • If the rules are changed this way, it turn the WhoWins predictions a bit more into a type of “Fantasy World Cup”, but it looks like this is what people want based on the comments I have gotten.

Thanks to all for participating in the WhoWins predictions. It has been great fun so far with a few hundred different people participating – and I am sure it will be in the future as well. Please post comments on the format of the WhoWins predictions below. I don’t want to make these changes if you aren’t happy with them!

Splits analysis

The splits analysis up Alpe Cermis is very interesting – take a look by following the links below.

Tour de Ski Alpe Cermis: Splits analysis men

Posted by Jan Kocbach, 09 Jan 2011@14:55


Lukas Bauer beat them all up Alpe Cermis! It was enough to bring Bauer up from the 10th spot to the podium – but nobody could beat Cologna and Northug in the overall. The above illustration shows a splits analysis of the development in the final Tour de Ski stage up Alpe Cermis for the men – highlighting how Lukas Bauer did a fantastic race – crushing all of the other skiers.

The illustration shows how Northug gained a lot of time in the flat part of the race, taking nearly half of the gap up to Cologna – and also increasing the gap down to Bauer and the other chasing behind. From the start of the climb, Bauer accelerated past the group, and gained a lot of time on Cologna and Northug.

Lukas Bauer had the best split time in all splits in the climb – except for the last climb where Ivan Babikov was fastest.

Gaillard obviously tried too hard to keep the speed of Bauer at the start of the climb, and lost a lot of time on the second last split after trying to stick to Bauer. This might have cost him the 4th spot – as Curdin Perl and Roland Clara passed him afterwards.

Stage results

1 10 1217350 BAUER Lukas CZE 30:28.3
2 9 3290016 CLARA Roland ITA 31:00.7
3 5 1362947 PERL Curdin SUI 31:02.1
4 14 1100077 VITTOZ Vincent FRA 31:03.3
5 2 3420239 NORTHUG Petter jr. NOR 31:07.3
6 25 3100190 BABIKOV Ivan CAN 31:15.4
7 33 1285347 FREEMAN Kris USA 31:22.2
8 21 1297957 MORIGGL Thomas ITA 31:26.3
9 6 1345875 GAILLARD Jean Marc FRA 31:29.7
10 13 3200015 REICHELT Tom GER 31:31.5
Do your own analysis

You may also open the splitsbrowser yourself to make your own analysis of the race. A flat line on a split means that an athlete is the fastest on a split. The steeper the line goes, the more an athlete looses on that split. Note that all lines start at 0:00 instead of at the actual start time, thus the illustration is not useful for the first split.

WhoWins XC Predictions
Split 2
1. 03:51 Petter NORTHUG NOR
2. 03:57 +00:06 Tord Asle GJERDALEN NOR
3. 03:58 +00:07 Roland CLARA ITA
4. 03:58 +00:07 Alex HARVEY CAN
5. 03:58 +00:08 Daniel RICKARDSSON SWE
6. 03:58 +00:08 Giorgio DI CENTA ITA
7. 03:59 +00:08 Devon KERSHAW CAN
8. 03:59 +00:08 Tom REICHELT GER
9. 03:59 +00:08 Vincent VITTOZ FRA
10. 03:59 +00:08 Curdin PERL SUI
11. 04:00 +00:09 Jean Marc GAILLARD FRA
13. 04:02 +00:11 Lukas BAUER CZE
32. 04:09 +00:18 Dario COLOGNA SUI
Split 3
1. 05:28 Petter NORTHUG NOR
2. 05:39 +00:10 Lukas BAUER CZE
3. 05:39 +00:10 Tord Asle GJERDALEN NOR
4. 05:41 +00:12 Jean Marc GAILLARD FRA
5. 05:41 +00:13 Giorgio DI CENTA ITA
6. 05:42 +00:13 Roland CLARA ITA
7. 05:42 +00:14 Curdin PERL SUI
8. 05:43 +00:14 Vincent VITTOZ FRA
9. 05:43 +00:15 Alex HARVEY CAN
10. 05:43 +00:15 Devon KERSHAW CAN
11. 05:43 +00:15 Martin JAKS CZE
13. 05:44 +00:16 Dario COLOGNA SUI
Split 4
1. 02:47 Lukas BAUER CZE
2. 02:50 +00:03 Dmitriy JAPAROV RUS
3. 02:51 +00:04 Curdin PERL SUI
4. 02:51 +00:04 Marcus HELLNER SWE
5. 02:51 +00:04 Vincent VITTOZ FRA
6. 02:51 +00:04 Jean Marc GAILLARD FRA
7. 02:52 +00:04 Dario COLOGNA SUI
8. 02:52 +00:05 Tom REICHELT GER
9. 02:52 +00:05 Robin DUVILLARD FRA
10. 02:52 +00:05 Remo FISCHER SUI
11. 02:52 +00:05 Thomas MORIGGL ITA
26. 02:58 +00:11 Roland CLARA ITA
28. 02:59 +00:12 Petter NORTHUG NOR
Split 5
1. 05:38 Lukas BAUER CZE
2. 05:48 +00:10 Giorgio DI CENTA ITA
3. 05:48 +00:11 Jean Marc GAILLARD FRA
4. 05:50 +00:13 Vincent VITTOZ FRA
5. 05:51 +00:14 Curdin PERL SUI
6. 05:52 +00:14 Robin DUVILLARD FRA
7. 05:52 +00:14 Ivan BABIKOV CAN
8. 05:53 +00:15 Thomas MORIGGL ITA
9. 05:53 +00:16 Tom REICHELT GER
10. 05:54 +00:16 Dario COLOGNA SUI
11. 05:54 +00:17 Roland CLARA ITA
13. 05:57 +00:20 Petter NORTHUG NOR
Split 6
1. 04:44 Lukas BAUER CZE
2. 04:57 +00:13 Roland CLARA ITA
3. 04:58 +00:14 Curdin PERL SUI
4. 05:00 +00:16 Vincent VITTOZ FRA
5. 05:01 +00:17 Ivan BABIKOV CAN
6. 05:01 +00:17 Thomas MORIGGL ITA
7. 05:01 +00:17 Robin DUVILLARD FRA
8. 05:06 +00:22 Tom REICHELT GER
9. 05:06 +00:22 Remo FISCHER SUI
10. 05:06 +00:22 Devon KERSHAW CAN
11. 05:06 +00:22 Tord Asle GJERDALEN NOR
14. 05:12 +00:28 Petter NORTHUG NOR
15. 05:14 +00:30 Dario COLOGNA SUI
21. 05:21 +00:37 Jean Marc GAILLARD FRA
Split 7
1. 03:39 Ivan BABIKOV CAN
2. 03:46 +00:07 Thomas MORIGGL ITA
3. 03:47 +00:08 Curdin PERL SUI
4. 03:48 +00:09 Roland CLARA ITA
5. 03:49 +00:10 Vincent VITTOZ FRA
6. 03:52 +00:13 Lukas BAUER CZE
7. 03:52 +00:14 Roger Aa DJUPVIK NOR
8. 03:54 +00:15 Roman LEYBYUK UKR
9. 03:55 +00:16 Remo FISCHER SUI
10. 03:55 +00:16 Christophe PERRILLAT FRA
11. 03:55 +00:17 Tom REICHELT GER
13. 03:56 +00:17 Petter NORTHUG NOR
16. 03:57 +00:18 Jean Marc GAILLARD FRA
28. 04:17 +00:38 Dario COLOGNA SUI
Overall (unofficial results from live timing)
1. 31:58 Dario COLOGNA SUI
2. 32:25 +00:27 Petter NORTHUG NOR
3. 33:42 +01:44 Lukas BAUER CZE
4. 33:56 +01:58 Curdin PERL SUI
5. 34:05 +02:07 Roland CLARA ITA
6. 34:26 +02:28 Jean Marc GAILLARD FRA
7. 34:30 +02:32 Devon KERSHAW CAN
8. 34:38 +02:40 Martin JAKS CZE
9. 34:58 +03:00 Daniel RICKARDSSON SWE
10. 35:07 +03:09 Alex HARVEY CAN
11. 35:31 +03:33 Vincent VITTOZ FRA
12. 35:49 +03:51 Tom REICHELT GER
13. 36:17 +04:19 Giorgio DI CENTA ITA
14. 36:29 +04:31 Marcus HELLNER SWE
15. 36:58 +05:00 Jens FILBRICH GER
16. 37:53 +05:55 Tord Asle GJERDALEN NOR
17. 38:04 +06:06 Maurice MANIFICAT FRA
18. 39:15 +07:17 Thomas MORIGGL ITA
19. 39:40 +07:42 Roger Aa DJUPVIK NOR
20. 39:42 +07:44 Robin DUVILLARD FRA
21. 39:47 +07:49 Ivan BABIKOV CAN
22. 40:32 +08:33 Remo FISCHER SUI
23. 40:46 +08:48 Dmitriy JAPAROV RUS
24. 41:42 +09:44 Sergey TURYCHEV RUS
25. 42:23 +10:25 Alexander BESSMERTNYKH RUS
26. 42:27 +10:29 Kristian Tettli RENNEMO NOR
27. 45:30 +13:32 Jaak MAE EST
28. 46:22 +14:24 Christophe PERRILLAT FRA
29. 47:31 +15:33 Snorri EINARSSON NOR
30. 50:17 +18:19 Maciej KRECZMER POL
31. 51:04 +19:06 Roman LEYBYUK UKR
32. 52:39 +20:41 Mariusz MICHALEK POL
33. 52:53 +20:55 Benoit-Gilles DUFOURD FRA
34. 10:43 +38:45 Francesc SOULIE AND
35. 06:27 +34:29 Callum WATSON AUS
Overall WhoWins results Tour de Ski

Congratulations to Qstoffe who took the overall victory in the Tour de Ski predictions! Fighting with more than 100 others, Qstoffe came up from behind and took the victory with 6007 points – more than 100 points ahead of Mats L in second and with a big gap down to Gigi in third.

Looking at the overall results, also big compliments to Ole-Johan in 10th spot who is the best of the ones with only 7 predictions. He has an average points of 775 – 15 points better than Qstoffe’s 750 points on average.

# Name Total points Average points Min points Maxpoints # predictions
1 qstoffe 6007 750 482 1112 8 predictions
2 Mats L 5903 737 528 1025 8 predictions
3 Gigi 5750 718 554 945 8 predictions
4 geraldo13 5705 713 395 987 8 predictions
5 Christopher Tassava 5634 704 484 1028 8 predictions
6 tom 5551 693 475 1092 8 predictions
7 DukeC 5517 689 439 1092 8 predictions
8 Mountainmums 5505 688 455 985 8 predictions
9 Anders & Maria H 5487 685 299 1075 8 predictions
10 Ole-Johan 5428 775 528 1219 7 predictions

The winner of today’s predictions was smeagol with 1280 points – this is also a new record number of points for the WhoWins predictions!  Smeagol hit the big jackpot, getting all the women right, and also all men except for number 4 (where Smeagol tipped Gaillard instead of Perl. Compliments to Smeagol for that achievement!

Going forward after the Tour de Ski, there will probably be some changes in the rules for the WhoWins predictions based on comments from the readers. Here is one suggestion for a new set of rules:
  • Instead of doubling the number of points for a correct predicted position, there will be a bonus of 50 points if you have number 1 correct, 30 points for number 2 and 20 points for number 3.
  • Skiers which are not among the favourites will give extra points. It looks like the best way to do it is that all skiers are grouped in two groups – the favourites and the non-favourites. For all non-favourites, you get double points for your predictions. When setting up your predictions, you can see graphically which skiers are in the favourite-group and which are outside. This will probably be based on FIS-points / previous results, and only change a few times within each season. Also, there will not be different groups for sprint/distance (difficult to set up technically).  I can imagine having around 25-30 skiers in the favourite group?
  • If you do not set up predictions for a race, your predictions go on to the next race unaltered.
  • If the rules are changed this way, it turn the WhoWins predictions a bit more into a type of “Fantasy World Cup”, but it looks like this is what people want based on the comments I have gotten.

Thanks to all for participating in the WhoWins predictions. It has been great fun so far with a few hundred different people participating – and I am sure it will be in the future as well. Please post comments on the format of the WhoWins predictions below. I don’t want to make these changes if you aren’t happy with them!

Tour de Ski Alpe Cermis: Splits analysis women 2011

Posted by Jan Kocbach, 09 Jan 2011@14:00


The above illustration shows a splits analysis of the development in the final Tour de Ski stage up Alpe Cermis – highlighting how Therese Johaug (Norway) did a fantastic race – crushing all of the other skiers. She was actually fastest on all splits on the Alpe Cermis climb!

Marianna Longa and Arianna Follis kept ut the speed in the flat part, but had no chance when the final climb started. Petra Majdic got problems in the climb, being passed by Kalla just ahead of the last split. Another Norwegian – Marthe Kristoffersen – was the other one besides Johaug gaining time on Kowalczyk up the hill. Kristoffersen was also fastest on the second split – the only one beating Johaug.

At the bottom of this page, you can see the splits analysis for the complete field. Not much grouping today – most skiers took the fight up the climb on their own.

Stage results:

1 5 3425301 JOHAUG Therese NOR 33:14.4
2 12 3425117 ELDEN Marte NOR 34:14.8
3 9 3425349 KRISTOFFERSEN Marthe NOR 35:08.3
4 1 3435001 KOWALCZYK Justyna POL 35:13.7
5 21 1142563 SHEVCHENKO Valentina UKR 35:21.2
6 8 3185256 LAHTEENMAKI Krista FIN 35:27.1
7 14 1247226 ZELLER Katrin GER 35:35.2
8 19 3505003 RYDQVIST Maria SWE 35:40.6
9 2 1222200 LONGA Marianna ITA 35:46.1
10 10 3425183 JACOBSEN Astrid Uhrenholdt NOR 35:56.4
Do your own analysis

You may also open the splitsbrowser yourself to make your own analysis of the race. A flat line on a split means that an athlete is the fastest on a split. The steeper the line goes, the more an athlete looses on that split. Note that all lines start at 0:00 instead of at the actual start time, thus the illustration is not useful for the first split.

WhoWins XC Predictions

Tour de Ski Alpe Cermis 2012: Women GPS analysis

Posted by Jan Kocbach, 09 Jan 2011@13:19

The above illustration shows a splits analysis of the development in the final Tour de Ski stage up Alpe Cermis 2012 – highlighting how Justyna Kowalczyk (POL) did a fantastic race – crushing Marit Bjørgen (NOR) and everybody else in the toughest part of the hill.

A flat line on the above illustration  means that an athlete is the fastest on a split. The steeper the line goes, the more an athlete looses on that split. Note that all lines start at 0:00 instead of at the actual start time, thus the illustration is not useful for the first split.

Looking at the GPS-data, we can see how Kowalczyk speeds up around 7.4 km –  Bjørgen has no chance to follow:

Therese Johaug stage victory

Therese Johaug (NOR) had the fastest time on the stage, but didn’t repeat last year’s legendary race where she crushed everybody up the alpine hill – winning with 1 minute down to Elden (NOR) in second and with nearly two minutes down to Kowalczyk in third.

Actually Kowalczyk would have been faster up the hill in this year’s edition of the Tour if she wouldn’t have started celebrating just ahead of the finish – this year Johaug took the time from Kowalczyk on the flat part of the stage as you can see in this GPS comparison:

One reason for Kowalczyk’s strong race up the last hill compared to Johaug is the fact that Kowalczyk and Bjørgen had the possibility to rest in the first part of the course, as they had a big +4 minute gap down to Johaug in third.

Marthe Kristoffersen versus Therese Johaug

Marthe Kristoffersen (NOR) had the fourth fastest time up Alpe Cermis after Johaug, Kowalczyk and Bjørgen. As you see from the comparison between Johaug and Kristoffersen, Kristoffersen looses only a few seconds in the flat part, but then looses more than a minute up the hill:

Marthe Kristoffersen did, however, not manage to fight Lähteenmäki in the fight for 4th place. As you can see on the GPS-splits illustration below, Kristoffersen skied at the same speed as Lähteenmäki on the flat part until around 6.2 km, and then was faster in the first part of the hill until 7 km – even passing Lähteenmäki. In the end Lähteenmäki was stronger, and beat Kristoffersen with some seconds in the final sprint.

“Loosers”: Kalla and Randall

Of the 10 skiers carrying a GPS-unit today, Kalla (SWE) and Randall (USA) lost most time. Both of them were in the fight for the 4th place overall.  Nearly 3 minutes for Kalla and around 3 minutes for Randall. Both lost most of the time after the big hill started:


Climb times

Times for the final climb up the alpine hill only (from FIS results to be found here):

1. Johaug 19.23.9
2. Kowalczyk 19.34.3
3. Valentina Shevchenko 19.47.7
4. Marit Bjørgen 20.01.05
5. Katrin Zeller 20.19.9
6. Marthe Kristoffersen 20.20.0
7. Elizaberth Stephen 20.22.2
8. Krista Lähteenmäki 20.31.0
9. Ishida Masako 20.53.7
10. Astrid Uhrenholdt Jacobsen 20.57.4

Stage results

See full stage results list from FIS here.

Rank Name Nation Time FIS pts
1 JOHAUG Therese NOR 34:17.7 0.00
2 KOWALCZYK Justyna POL 35:09.0 29.92
3 BJOERGEN Marit NOR 35:25.7 39.66
4 KRISTOFFERSEN Marthe NOR 35:28.5 41.29
5 SHEVCHENKO Valentina UKR 35:31.6 43.10
6 ZELLER Katrin GER 35:37.3 46.42
7 LAHTEENMAKI Krista FIN 35:43.2 49.86
8 STEPHEN Elizabeth USA 35:50.7 54.24
9 ROPONEN Riitta-Liisa FIN 36:08.6 64.67
10 JACOBSEN Astrid Uhrenholdt NOR 36:12.5 66.95
Split times

Below you find timing for each split. Note that Marthe Kristoffersen is missing as one of her splits is missing in the official timing data. Johaug is fast from the start, while Bjørgen and Kowalczyk start very slowly. In the steepest part up Alpe Cermis (split 5), Kowalczyk is 11 seconds faster than Johaug.

You find the 2011 analysis here.

Split 2 only
1. 04:24 Therese JOHAUG NOR (13:39)
2. 04:24 +00:01 Riitta-Liisa ROPONEN FIN (17:27)
3. 04:24 +00:01 Astrid Uhrenholdt JACOBSEN NOR (16:29)
4. 04:25 +00:01 Ingvild Flugstad OESTBERG NOR (17:28)
5. 04:25 +00:02 Krista LAHTEENMAKI FIN (15:11)
6. 04:26 +00:02 Maryna ANTSYBOR UKR (27:08)
7. 04:26 +00:03 Marina MATROSSOVA KAZ (27:03)
8. 04:26 +00:03 Oxana YATSKAYA KAZ (28:11)
9. 04:27 +00:03 Tatjana OSSIPOVA KAZ (26:02)
10. 04:27 +00:04 Larisa SHAIDUROVA RUS (22:31)
11. 04:27 +00:04 Elizabeth STEPHEN USA (21:33)
14. 04:28 +00:05 Charlotte KALLA SWE (15:06)
21. 04:29 +00:06 Aino- Kaisa SAARINEN FIN (16:06)
40. 04:36 +00:13 Marit BJOERGEN NOR (09:15)
42. 04:37 +00:14 Justyna KOWALCZYK POL (09:15)
Split 3 only
1. 06:04 Therese JOHAUG NOR (19:43)
2. 06:13 +00:08 Debora AGREITER ITA (28:50)
3. 06:13 +00:09 Elizabeth STEPHEN USA (27:46)
4. 06:14 +00:09 Maria RYDQVIST SWE (27:51)
5. 06:14 +00:10 Barbara JEZERSEK SLO (29:05)
6. 06:14 +00:10 Virginia DE MARTIN TOPRANIN ITA (25:32)
7. 06:14 +00:10 Masako ISHIDA JPN (23:55)
8. 06:14 +00:10 Anouk FAIVRE PICON FRA (26:21)
9. 06:15 +00:11 Coraline HUGUE FRA (32:56)
10. 06:15 +00:11 Riitta-Liisa ROPONEN FIN (23:43)
11. 06:15 +00:11 Krista LAHTEENMAKI FIN (21:27)
18. 06:17 +00:13 Aino- Kaisa SAARINEN FIN (22:23)
24. 06:19 +00:15 Charlotte KALLA SWE (21:26)
25. 06:19 +00:15 Justyna KOWALCZYK POL (15:35)
29. 06:21 +00:17 Marit BJOERGEN NOR (15:36)
Split 4 only
1. 03:08 Valentina SHEVCHENKO UKR (30:24)
2. 03:10 +00:02 Julia IVANOVA RUS (28:11)
3. 03:11 +00:03 Therese JOHAUG NOR (22:54)
4. 03:17 +00:09 Marit BJOERGEN NOR (18:53)
5. 03:17 +00:09 Justyna KOWALCZYK POL (18:52)
6. 03:18 +00:09 Anouk FAIVRE PICON FRA (29:39)
7. 03:18 +00:09 Elizabeth STEPHEN USA (31:03)
8. 03:18 +00:10 Debora AGREITER ITA (32:08)
9. 03:21 +00:12 Marthe KRISTOFFERSEN NOR (25:05)
10. 03:21 +00:12 Riitta-Liisa ROPONEN FIN (27:03)
11. 03:21 +00:13 Holly BROOKS USA (36:01)
27. 03:29 +00:21 Aino- Kaisa SAARINEN FIN (25:52)
37. 03:33 +00:25 Krista LAHTEENMAKI FIN (25:00)
38. 03:33 +00:25 Charlotte KALLA SWE (24:59)
Split 5 only
1. 11:39 Justyna KOWALCZYK POL (30:30)
2. 11:50 +00:11 Therese JOHAUG NOR (34:44)
3. 12:02 +00:23 Valentina SHEVCHENKO UKR (42:26)
4. 12:09 +00:30 Marit BJOERGEN NOR (31:02)
5. 12:23 +00:44 Katrin ZELLER GER (37:45)
6. 12:23 +00:45 Elizabeth STEPHEN USA (43:27)
7. 12:28 +00:49 Marthe KRISTOFFERSEN NOR (37:32)
8. 12:32 +00:53 Krista LAHTEENMAKI FIN (37:31)
9. 12:40 +01:01 Masako ISHIDA JPN (40:00)
10. 12:51 +01:13 Debora AGREITER ITA (44:59)
11. 12:53 +01:14 Aino- Kaisa SAARINEN FIN (38:44)
15. 13:09 +01:31 Charlotte KALLA SWE (38:08)
Split 6 only
1. 04:23 Therese JOHAUG NOR (39:07)
2. 04:26 +00:03 Krista LAHTEENMAKI FIN (41:58)
3. 04:28 +00:05 Astrid Uhrenholdt JACOBSEN NOR (43:42)
4. 04:32 +00:09 Marthe KRISTOFFERSEN NOR (42:04)
5. 04:33 +00:10 Katrin ZELLER GER (42:19)
6. 04:36 +00:13 Marit BJOERGEN NOR (35:37)
7. 04:37 +00:14 Barbara JEZERSEK SLO (50:54)
8. 04:37 +00:14 Julia IVANOVA RUS (46:50)
9. 04:38 +00:15 Valentina SHEVCHENKO UKR (47:04)
10. 04:38 +00:15 Riitta-Liisa ROPONEN FIN (44:43)
11. 04:39 +00:16 Justyna KOWALCZYK POL (35:09)
17. 04:45 +00:22 Aino- Kaisa SAARINEN FIN (43:29)
35. 05:02 +00:39 Charlotte KALLA SWE (43:10)
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