Tour de Ski Queen Stage 2014: Analysis

Posted by Jan Kocbach, 03 Jan 2014@14:31


Sundby started around 30 seconds ahead – and managed to build up a 50-55 seconds gap to a six man group consisting of Northug, Harvey, Halfvarsson, Legkov and Jespersen in the first 5-6 km of the race. The graphical analysis above shows the development from start until finish.

As you can see from the illustration, the six man group did not cooperate well, and the gap steadily increased second by second. After around 10-12 km the Austrican Duerr – starting at 2:11 in 34th spot - surprisingly came up to the 6 man group and increased the speed in the group for some kilometers – chasing the gap down to around 1:10. This gap stayed constant until the sprint in the group started a kilometer before the finish. Northug finished 2nd – 58 seconds behind Sundby. Adding up the bonus seconds (15 seconds for victory, 10 seconds for 2nd place, 5 seconds for third place), that means that Sundby now has a 1:03 lead.

Sundby did a very good race at the front of the field – but if the chasing group would have cooperated better, it should have been possible to chase down at least another 20-25 seconds on Sundby. However, as we have seen earlier on the Cortina-Toblach stage it is not easy to get a good cooperation going – especially not when there are team mates of the leader in the following group (Jespersen and Northug).

- I did not race full speed, but I tried to keep a steady pace over 35 km. I gambled that I had enough strength to go all the way to the finish, Sundby said after his race. - Now I am completely finished.

The question is if this race has cost Sundby more than the others in the chasing group? We will see tomorrow at the 10 km classic!

The illustration above is a graphical illustration of the race development based on the split times. A line which is flat means that a skier has the same time as Petter Northug for the split (Northug’s line is flat all the way). A line which goes down represents slower speed – a line which goes up represents faster speed. Key moments are marked on the illustration. See the full interactive illustration here.

Nearly melted into one

The second big group was partly lead by the Norwegians Tønseth, Krogh and Gjerdalen – and partly by Dotzler among others. Before Duerr caught up with the first group it looked like the two groups would melt into one, big group – but when Duerr got up to the first group the speed increased in the first group – and the gap between the groups steadily increased. In the end the group was at around 1:55 behind Sundby. The disappointment of the day was Manificat – the winner of the Davos 30 km – who had to let the second group go and lost a lot of time. A pity for Manificat who usually has his strength in the Final Climb!

Further down we had the third big group with Noah Hoffman as the fastest racer. First to the finish in this group was Dyrhaug at 3:05.

GPS comparison

Below you see some simple GPS-comparisons based on the live GPS-tracking. There were unfortunately some holes in the GPS coverage due to the phone coverage in the area, and thus the GPS-data do not give a complete picture of the development in the race. You can however see how the gap between Sundby and the first big group was at its largest around 13.0 km.

Split 1
1. 14:15 Johannes DUERR AUT
2. 14:21 +00:06 Niklas DYRHAUG NOR
3. 14:24 +00:09 Tord Asle GJERDALEN NOR
4. 14:25 +00:10 Giorgio DI CENTA ITA
5. 14:30 +00:15 Robin DUVILLARD FRA
6. 14:31 +00:16 Maurice MANIFICAT FRA
7. 14:32 +00:17 Chris JESPERSEN NOR
8. 14:36 +00:21 Jean Marc GAILLARD FRA
9. 14:40 +00:25 Martin Johnsrud SUNDBY NOR
10. 14:40 +00:25 Noah HOFFMAN USA
11. 14:41 +00:26 Alexander LEGKOV RUS
12. 14:41 +00:26 Didrik TOENSETH NOR
17. 14:42 +00:27 Sjur ROETHE NOR
50. 15:08 +00:53 Petter jr. NORTHUG NOR

Split 2

1. 16:58 Johannes DUERR AUT
2. 17:05 +00:07 Tord Asle GJERDALEN NOR
3. 17:12 +00:14 Jean Marc GAILLARD FRA
4. 17:14 +00:16 Sjur ROETHE NOR
5. 17:15 +00:17 Maurice MANIFICAT FRA
6. 17:19 +00:20 Hannes DOTZLER GER
7. 17:19 +00:21 Lari LEHTONEN FIN
8. 17:19 +00:21 Robin DUVILLARD FRA
9. 17:21 +00:23 Ville NOUSIAINEN FIN
10. 17:21 +00:23 Didrik TOENSETH NOR
11. 17:23 +00:25 Jonas DOBLER GER
12. 17:24 +00:25 Martin Johnsrud SUNDBY NOR
13. 17:24 +00:26 Noah HOFFMAN USA
19. 17:40 +00:42 Chris JESPERSEN NOR
22. 17:41 +00:43 Petter jr. NORTHUG NOR
23. 17:42 +00:43 Alexander LEGKOV RUS

Split 3

1. 08:25 Johannes DUERR AUT
2. 08:26 +00:01 Calle HALFVARSSON SWE
3. 08:26 +00:02 Petter jr. NORTHUG NOR
4. 08:27 +00:03 Alexander LEGKOV RUS
5. 08:28 +00:03 Chris JESPERSEN NOR
6. 08:28 +00:03 Ilia CHERNOUSOV RUS
7. 08:28 +00:04 Alex HARVEY CAN
8. 08:36 +00:12 Lari LEHTONEN FIN
9. 08:37 +00:12 Ville NOUSIAINEN FIN
10. 08:37 +00:12 Martin JAKS CZE
11. 08:37 +00:13 Daniel RICHARDSSON SWE
12. 08:37 +00:13 Martin Johnsrud SUNDBY NOR
13. 08:39 +00:14 Sjur ROETHE NOR
14. 08:40 +00:16 Didrik TOENSETH NOR
16. 08:41 +00:17 Noah HOFFMAN USA
17. 08:42 +00:17 Robin DUVILLARD FRA
18. 08:44 +00:19 Tord Asle GJERDALEN NOR
19. 08:45 +00:20 Jean Marc GAILLARD FRA

Split 4

1. 12:34 Noah HOFFMAN USA
2. 12:35 +00:01 Dietmar NOECKLER ITA
3. 12:35 +00:01 Petr SEDOV RUS
4. 12:36 +00:02 Konstantin GLAVATSKIKH RUS
5. 12:37 +00:02 Ivan BABIKOV CAN
6. 12:38 +00:03 Alexander UTKIN RUS
7. 12:38 +00:04 Martin JOHANSSON SWE
8. 12:38 +00:04 Thomas BING GER
9. 12:38 +00:04 Jens ERIKSSON SWE
10. 12:39 +00:05 Keishin YOSHIDA JPN
11. 12:39 +00:05 David HOFER ITA
19. 12:44 +00:10 Robin DUVILLARD FRA
21. 12:45 +00:10 Chris JESPERSEN NOR
23. 12:45 +00:11 Martin Johnsrud SUNDBY NOR
24. 12:45 +00:11 Alexander LEGKOV RUS
26. 12:46 +00:12 Petter jr. NORTHUG NOR
28. 12:48 +00:13 Didrik TOENSETH NOR
29. 12:48 +00:14 Johannes DUERR AUT
31. 12:51 +00:16 Tord Asle GJERDALEN NOR
32. 12:51 +00:16 Sjur ROETHE NOR
35. 12:52 +00:18 Jean Marc GAILLARD FRA

Split 5

1. 08:42 Johannes DUERR AUT
2. 08:43 +00:01 Petter jr. NORTHUG NOR
3. 08:44 +00:02 Ivan BABIKOV CAN
4. 08:44 +00:02 Ilia CHERNOUSOV RUS
5. 08:45 +00:02 Michail SEMENOV BLR
6. 08:45 +00:03 Alexander LEGKOV RUS
7. 08:45 +00:03 Martin JOHANSSON SWE
8. 08:46 +00:03 Noah HOFFMAN USA
9. 08:46 +00:04 Calle HALFVARSSON SWE
10. 08:46 +00:04 Chris JESPERSEN NOR
11. 08:46 +00:04 Andrew MUSGRAVE GBR
12. 08:46 +00:04 Martin Johnsrud SUNDBY NOR
29. 08:53 +00:11 Jean Marc GAILLARD FRA
30. 08:53 +00:11 Tord Asle GJERDALEN NOR
36. 08:54 +00:12 Robin DUVILLARD FRA
41. 08:54 +00:12 Didrik TOENSETH NOR
44. 08:57 +00:15 Sjur ROETHE NOR

Split 6

1. 10:53 Alexander UTKIN RUS
2. 10:53 +00:00 Thomas BING GER
3. 10:53 +00:01 Keishin YOSHIDA JPN
4. 10:53 +00:01 Konstantin GLAVATSKIKH RUS
5. 10:55 +00:02 Jens FILBRICH GER
6. 10:56 +00:03 Devon KERSHAW CAN
7. 10:56 +00:03 Anders SOEDERGREN SWE
8. 10:56 +00:03 Noah HOFFMAN USA
9. 10:56 +00:03 Tim TSCHARNKE GER
10. 10:57 +00:04 Ivan BABIKOV CAN
11. 10:57 +00:04 Martin JOHANSSON SWE
15. 10:58 +00:06 Martin Johnsrud SUNDBY NOR
19. 11:03 +00:10 Alexander LEGKOV RUS
20. 11:03 +00:10 Chris JESPERSEN NOR
23. 11:04 +00:11 Petter jr. NORTHUG NOR
24. 11:04 +00:11 Johannes DUERR AUT
26. 11:12 +00:19 Sjur ROETHE NOR
27. 11:13 +00:21 Tord Asle GJERDALEN NOR
28. 11:14 +00:21 Jean Marc GAILLARD FRA
29. 11:14 +00:21 Robin DUVILLARD FRA
40. 11:18 +00:25 Didrik TOENSETH NOR

Split 7

1. 03:59 Ville NOUSIAINEN FIN
2. 03:59 +00:00 Robin DUVILLARD FRA
3. 03:59 +00:00 Hannes DOTZLER GER
4. 03:59 +00:00 Tord Asle GJERDALEN NOR
5. 04:00 +00:01 Sjur ROETHE NOR
6. 04:00 +00:01 Didrik TOENSETH NOR
7. 04:01 +00:02 Daniel RICHARDSSON SWE
8. 04:01 +00:02 Alex HARVEY CAN
9. 04:01 +00:02 Martin JAKS CZE
10. 04:01 +00:02 Chris JESPERSEN NOR
11. 04:01 +00:02 Jean Marc GAILLARD FRA
17. 04:03 +00:04 Petter jr. NORTHUG NOR
27. 04:04 +00:05 Martin Johnsrud SUNDBY NOR
32. 04:06 +00:07 Noah HOFFMAN USA
33. 04:06 +00:07 Alexander LEGKOV RUS
34. 04:06 +00:07 Johannes DUERR AUT

Split 8

1. 02:49 Petter jr. NORTHUG NOR
2. 02:49 +00:00 Jens ERIKSSON SWE
3. 02:49 +00:01 Jens FILBRICH GER
4. 02:50 +00:01 Johannes DUERR AUT
5. 02:50 +00:01 Alexander LEGKOV RUS
6. 02:50 +00:01 Anders SOEDERGREN SWE
7. 02:50 +00:01 Alexander UTKIN RUS
8. 02:50 +00:01 Jonas DOBLER GER
9. 02:50 +00:02 Calle HALFVARSSON SWE
10. 02:50 +00:02 Martin JOHANSSON SWE
11. 02:51 +00:02 Dietmar NOECKLER ITA
15. 02:52 +00:03 Noah HOFFMAN USA
22. 02:53 +00:04 Jean Marc GAILLARD FRA
23. 02:53 +00:04 Chris JESPERSEN NOR
26. 02:54 +00:05 Didrik TOENSETH NOR
31. 02:55 +00:06 Sjur ROETHE NOR
33. 02:55 +00:07 Tord Asle GJERDALEN NOR
36. 02:59 +00:10 Robin DUVILLARD FRA
40. 03:04 +00:16 Martin Johnsrud SUNDBY NOR

Overall (unofficial results from live timing, without bonus seconds)

1. 01:20:19 Martin Johnsrud SUNDBY NOR
2. 01:21:17 +00:58 Petter jr. NORTHUG NOR
3. 01:21:17 +00:59 Alex HARVEY CAN
4. 01:21:18 +00:59 Calle HALFVARSSON SWE
5. 01:21:18 +01:00 Alexander LEGKOV RUS
6. 01:21:19 +01:00 Johannes DUERR AUT
7. 01:21:19 +01:01 Chris JESPERSEN NOR
8. 01:21:22 +01:04 Ilia CHERNOUSOV RUS
9. 01:22:14 +01:55 Ville NOUSIAINEN FIN
10. 01:22:14 +01:56 Tord Asle GJERDALEN NOR
11. 01:22:15 +01:56 Sjur ROETHE NOR
12. 01:22:15 +01:56 Hannes DOTZLER GER
13. 01:22:15 +01:57 Jean Marc GAILLARD FRA
14. 01:22:15 +01:57 Didrik TOENSETH NOR
15. 01:22:16 +01:57 Daniel RICHARDSSON SWE
16. 01:22:16 +01:58 Robin DUVILLARD FRA
17. 01:22:17 +01:58 Martin JAKS CZE
18. 01:22:33 +02:14 Lari LEHTONEN FIN
19. 01:23:23 +03:05 Niklas DYRHAUG NOR
20. 01:23:24 +03:05 Tim TSCHARNKE GER
21. 01:23:24 +03:05 Jonas DOBLER GER
22. 01:23:24 +03:05 Devon KERSHAW CAN
23. 01:23:24 +03:05 Konstantin GLAVATSKIKH RUS
24. 01:23:25 +03:06 Alexander UTKIN RUS
25. 01:23:25 +03:06 Keishin YOSHIDA JPN
26. 01:23:25 +03:06 Noah HOFFMAN USA
27. 01:23:25 +03:06 Ivan BABIKOV CAN
28. 01:23:25 +03:07 Martin JOHANSSON SWE
29. 01:23:26 +03:07 Anders SOEDERGREN SWE
30. 01:23:26 +03:07 Jens FILBRICH GER
31. 01:23:26 +03:07 Jens ERIKSSON SWE
32. 01:23:29 +03:11 Sami JAUHOJAERVI FIN
33. 01:23:32 +03:13 Giorgio DI CENTA ITA
34. 01:23:35 +03:16 Evgeniy BELOV RUS
35. 01:23:48 +03:29 Stanislav VOLZHENTSEV RUS

Fastest skier of the day (unofficial results from live timing)

1. 01:19:07 Johannes DUERR AUT
2. 01:19:58 +00:51 Noah HOFFMAN USA
3. 01:20:04 +00:57 Tord Asle GJERDALEN NOR
4. 01:20:07 +01:00 Chris JESPERSEN NOR
5. 01:20:17 +01:11 Alexander LEGKOV RUS
6. 01:20:19 +01:12 Martin Johnsrud SUNDBY NOR
7. 01:20:19 +01:12 Robin DUVILLARD FRA
8. 01:20:25 +01:18 Jean Marc GAILLARD FRA
9. 01:20:30 +01:23 Sjur ROETHE NOR
10. 01:20:35 +01:28 Didrik TOENSETH NOR
11. 01:20:39 +01:32 Ilia CHERNOUSOV RUS
12. 01:20:40 +01:33 Petter jr. NORTHUG NOR
13. 01:20:41 +01:34 Ville NOUSIAINEN FIN
14. 01:20:42 +01:36 Alex HARVEY CAN
15. 01:20:43 +01:36 Hannes DOTZLER GER
16. 01:20:43 +01:36 Daniel RICHARDSSON SWE
17. 01:20:46 +01:39 Calle HALFVARSSON SWE
18. 01:20:46 +01:39 Lari LEHTONEN FIN
19. 01:20:49 +01:43 Martin JOHANSSON SWE
20. 01:20:52 +01:45 Martin JAKS CZE
21. 01:20:54 +01:47 Konstantin GLAVATSKIKH RUS
22. 01:20:56 +01:49 Keishin YOSHIDA JPN
23. 01:21:01 +01:54 Anders SOEDERGREN SWE
24. 01:21:03 +01:56 Alexander UTKIN RUS
25. 01:21:07 +02:00 Jens ERIKSSON SWE
26. 01:21:10 +02:03 Niklas DYRHAUG NOR
27. 01:21:16 +02:09 Ivan BABIKOV CAN
28. 01:21:19 +02:12 Petr SEDOV RUS
29. 01:21:20 +02:13 Giorgio DI CENTA ITA
30. 01:21:36 +02:29 Jens FILBRICH GER
31. 01:21:37 +02:30 Jonas DOBLER GER
32. 01:21:37 +02:30 Ivan PERRILLAT BOITEUX FRA
33. 01:21:40 +02:33 Devon KERSHAW CAN
34. 01:21:51 +02:44 Toni LIVERS SUI
35. 01:21:56 +02:49 Sergei DOLIDOVICH BLR

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