Tour de Ski Lenzerheide: Preview & Predictions

Posted by Jan Kocbach, 30 Dec 2013@1:28

After two races in Oberhof the Tour de Ski moves on to Lenzerheide for a free technique sprint race on Tuesday and a 10/15 km classic mass start race on Wednesday. Both races will be very important for the long chasing start in Toblach/Cortina – especially in the men’s class it is important to get into the big groups which always form.

Whereas Marit Bjørgen and Alex Harvey are in the lead in the Tour de Ski, Johan leads the overall Tour de Ski XC-predictions after the two first races. There have been many surprises this year – especially in the Prologue – so Johan’s point score so far is only at 967 points. Still the lead to rem38 in second place is more than 50 points.

Set up your predictions

Set up your predictions here – or read the preview article below first:

Below the race previews you find tables with historical results.

Race previews – Stage 3, Free technique sprint

With another sprint race in free technique, it might be expected that the results will be similar to the results we saw at stage two in Oberhof. However, looking at the sprint course in Lenzerheide – this is a sprint course which will probably be more of an advantage for fast skiers who are good in downhill and flat parts. Instead of the tough hills up to the stadium in the end phase of the course as in Oberhof, the course features a tough uphill starting around halfway into the race – and then the last 5-600 meters are downhill and mostly flat (except for a small hill some 200 meters before the finish). Distance skiers like Martin Johnsrud Sundby and Therese Johaug who performed better than expected in Oberhof might get a rougher way to the semifinals and finals in Lenzerheide.

Also, the Lenzerheide sprint will be an opportunity for the skiers failing in Oberhof to show themselves from a better side – like for example Finn Haagen Krogh, Devon Kershav, Astrid Uhrenholdt Jacobsen and Heidi Weng.

Favourites will again be Marit Bjørgen, Denise Herrmann, Ingvild Flugstad Østberg along with the Oberhof winner Hanna Erikson among the women. In the men’s class the Oberhof winner Calle Halfvarsson will try to defend his victory among Finn Haagen Krogh, Petter Northug, Federico Pellegrino, Andrew Newell and the “surprises” from Oberhof.

Race previews – Stage 4, Mass start classic

With the classic mass start race on stage 4 we will finally see a distance race in this year’s Tour de Ski – the skiers probably long as much for it as the spectators. Remember however that the mass start race in Tour de Ski is just as much about getting bonus seconds during the race as being the winner of the race. See historical results in classic mass start races at the bottom of this article.

Women

The classic mass start race have mostly been a fight between Marit Bjørgen and Justyna Kowalczyk the last years – with Therese Johaug giving a fight for second place. With Kowalczyk not on the start, this will probably be a fight between Bjørgen and Johaug – but look out for the very strong Finnish team which will give the Norwegians fight all the way to the finish.

Men

Alexey Poltoranin was in fantastic shape at the Tour de Ski last year – winning the classic 15 km mass start in Val di Fiemme at Tour de Ski – and also winning a classic 15 km mass start in La Clusaz two weeks later. Poltoranin showed good shape at the 15 km interval start race in Lillehammer in December, and should thus be among the top favourites. Also look out for Martin Johnsrud Sundby – showing top shape so far in the Tour de Ski – and although he has not shown top performances in the classic distance races so far this season, Sundby is definitely a man to look out for in Lenzerheide. The dark horse in this race is Petter Northug. Can he finally mobilize himself enough to take a podium place? Classic mass start races have not been his favourite lately – but Northug has surprised many times – will Lenzerheide be a step forward for the Norwegian?

The Canadian Harvey can be very strong at classic mass start races at the Tour – also look out for him in this classic mass start race. Outsiders are Daniel Rickardsson, Alexander Legkov, Devon Kershaw and Finn Haagen Krogh.

An outsider to note is the Kuusamo 10 km classic winner Lukas Bauer. Classic distance races is his specialty – but being a weak finisher the Lenzerheide finish might be a bit too easy for him to take the win if he can’t get away on the long uphill on the last loop?

Historical results: Men Free technique, Sprint
Name Oberhof
2013-12-29
Sprint Free
Davos
2013-12-15
Sprint Free
Lahti
2013-03-09
Sprint Free
Sochi
2013-02-01
Sprint Free
Val Muestair
2013-01-01
Sprint Free
Canmore
2012-12-15
Sprint Free
JOENSSON Emil 22nd 1st 31st 6th 1st
PELLEGRINO Federico 2nd 6th 31st 56th 2nd 6th
GLOEERSEN Anders 1st 21st 9th 2nd
KROGH Finn Haagen 29th 5th 3rd 1st
NORTHUG Petter jr. 6th 28th 1st 8th
HALFVARSSON Calle 1st 26th 17th 5th
VALJAS Len 61st 8th 20th 3rd 7th
NEWELL Andrew 10th 17th 27th 13th 9th 5th
COLOGNA Dario 41st 2nd 4th
KRIUKOV Nikita 12th 70th 5th 3rd
USTIUGOV Sergey 3rd 23rd 4th
PETUKHOV Alexey 4th 14th 6th 22nd
JYLHAE Martti 2nd 18th 50th 16th
HATTESTAD Ola Vigen 11th 2nd 44th
GAFAROV Anton 13th 6th 12th 23rd
HOFER David 71st 59th 56th 3rd 21st 21st
MORILOV Nikolay 18th 9th 11th 19th
CHEBOTKO Nikolay 37th 4th 22nd 18th 39th
TSCHARNKE Tim 13th 41st 4th
PERSSON Simon 9th 15th 61st 11th
CHERNOUSOV Ilia 19th 7th 14th
KERSHAW Devon 18th 69th 8th 15th 50th
SUNDBY Martin Johnsrud 3rd 48th
WENZL Josef 5th 16th 46th
EISENLAUER Sebastian 7th 15th 24th
WURM Harald 38th 42nd 48th 10th 8th
ERIKSSON Jens 4th 29th 52nd
RETIVYKH Gleb 43rd 5th 39th 31st
LEGKOV Alexander 9th 19th
HEDIGER Jovian 41st 7th 58th 26th
HELLNER Marcus 64th 7th
PETERSON Teodor 7th 34th 77th 48th
BELOV Evgeniy 8th
BRANDSDAL Eirik 8th 40th
COCKNEY Jesse 82nd 50th 9th
VYLEGZHANIN Maxim 10th
DEVJATIAROV Mikhail Jun. 33rd 53rd 33rd 10th
SKAR Sindre Bjoernestad 10th
SCHAAD Roman 10th
Historical results: Women Free technique, Sprint
Name Oberhof
2013-12-29
Sprint Free
Davos
2013-12-15
Sprint Free
Lahti
2013-03-09
Sprint Free
Sochi
2013-02-01
Sprint Free
Val Müstair
2013-01-01
Sprint Free
Canmore
2012-12-15
Sprint Free
RANDALL Kikkan 2nd 1st 1st 1st 2nd
HERRMANN Denise 2nd 3rd 14th 14th 8th 4th
OESTBERG Ingvild Flugstad 3rd 7th 13th 2nd 5th
BJOERGEN Marit 5th 1st 2nd
BRUN-LIE Celine 18th 7th 3rd 3rd
ERIKSON Hanna 1st 4th
KOLB Hanna 10th 22nd 12th 9th 4th 17th
VAN DER GRAAFF Laurien 13th 10th 15th 8th 12th 8th
JEAN Aurore 29th 44th 18th 2nd 9th 18th
FALLA Maiken Caspersen 8th 33rd 1st
WENG Heidi 35th 15th 11th 3rd
KYLLOENEN Anne 8th 20th 23rd 13th 26th 12th
JACOBSEN Astrid Uhrenholdt 26th 13th 30th 4th 13th
SARASOJA-LILJA Riikka 34th 11th 5th 11th
FABJAN Vesna 5th 21st 39th 16th 16th
KALLA Charlotte 31st 6th 6th
KOWALCZYK Justyna 25th 10th 43rd 7th 21st
PROCHAZKOVA Alena 46th 3rd 24th
SARGENT Ida 41st 38th 6th 10th
INGEMARSDOTTER Ida 39th 7th 9th
JOHAUG Therese 7th 49th 10th
FESSEL Nicole 4th 56th 20th
NILSSON Stina 6th 17th 25th
BJORNSEN Sadie 27th 9th 21st 22nd
VUERICH Gaia 9th 21st 19th 36th
JOHANSSON NORGREN Britta 4th 45th
CALDWELL Sophie 22nd 9th 55th 23rd
LAUKKANEN Mari 5th
STEIRA Kristin Stoermer 54th 5th
SOEMSKAR Linn 22nd 40th 7th
ANGER Lucia 6th
CRAWFORD Chandra 43rd 51st 6th
MATVEEVA Natalia 35th 8th 28th
NIKOLAEVA Svetlana 36th 10th 37th
Historical results: Men Classic technique, Mass start
Name Falun
2013-03-23
Mass Classic 15 km
Val di Fiemme
2013-03-03
Mass Classic 50 km
La Clusaz
2013-01-19
Mass Classic 15 km
Val di Fiemme
2013-01-05
Mass Classic 15 km
Canmore
2012-12-13
Mass Classic 15 km
Falun
2012-03-17
Mass Classic 15 km
COLOGNA Dario + 0:17.9
43:43.9 (12th)
+ 0:12.9
2:10:54.3 (2nd)
+ 0:00.4
37:12.0 (3rd)
+ 0:10.7
39:12.2 (11th)
+ 0:00.0
43:14.9 (1st)
ROENNING Eldar + 0:00.0
43:26.0 (1st)
+ 0:20.2
2:11:01.6 (5th)
+ 0:08.6
37:20.2 (14th)
+ 0:22.2
41:37.0 (12th)
+ 0:00.4
43:15.3 (2nd)
POLTORANIN Alexey + 1:56.0
45:22.0 (34th)
+ 0:16.8
2:10:58.2 (3rd)
+ 0:00.0
37:11.6 (1st)
+ 0:00.0
39:01.5 (1st)
+ 4:52.5
48:07.4 (45th)
DI CENTA Giorgio + 0:07.2
43:33.2 (6th)
+ 1:29.1
2:12:10.5 (19th)
+ 0:06.2
37:17.8 (9th)
+ 0:00.7
39:02.2 (4th)
+ 0:08.7
41:23.5 (5th)
+ 0:34.3
43:49.2 (14th)
OLSSON Johan + 0:00.0
2:10:41.4 (1st)
+ 0:03.6
37:15.2 (7th)
+ 0:02.8
39:04.3 (6th)
ANGERER Tobias + 1:18.3
44:44.3 (26th)
+ 0:45.4
2:11:26.8 (13th)
+ 0:10.7
37:22.3 (17th)
+ 0:00.9
39:02.4 (5th)
+ 0:05.8
41:20.6 (3rd)
+ 0:37.1
43:52.0 (15th)
VYLEGZHANIN Maxim + 0:00.1
43:26.1 (2nd)
+ 0:34.6
2:11:16.0 (8th)
+ 0:09.9
37:21.5 (16th)
+ 0:16.1
39:17.6 (18th)
+ 0:34.0
43:48.9 (13th)
VALJAS Len + 5:04.5
48:30.5 (50th)
+ 1:29.8
38:41.4 (50th)
+ 0:00.1
39:01.6 (2nd)
+ 1:20.5
42:35.3 (24th)
+ 0:01.3
43:16.2 (3rd)
ROETHE Sjur + 1:27.7
44:53.7 (27th)
+ 1:08.2
2:11:49.6 (17th)
+ 0:06.0
37:17.6 (8th)
+ 0:04.8
41:19.6 (2nd)
+ 0:41.4
43:56.3 (16th)
TSCHARNKE Tim + 0:18.4
43:44.4 (14th)
+ 0:12.4
37:24.0 (19th)
+ 0:00.0
41:14.8 (1st)
+ 1:13.7
44:28.6 (23rd)
DOTZLER Hannes + 1:56.6
45:22.6 (35th)
+ 0:32.7
2:11:14.1 (7th)
+ 0:01.8
37:13.4 (6th)
+ 0:14.5
39:16.0 (16th)
+ 0:09.3
41:24.1 (6th)
BESSMERTNYKH Alexander + 0:56.3
44:22.3 (21st)
+ 2:50.8
2:13:32.2 (23rd)
+ 0:00.1
37:11.7 (2nd)
+ 0:08.8
39:10.3 (9th)
+ 1:26.9
42:41.7 (28th)
LEGKOV Alexander + 0:25.6
43:51.6 (15th)
+ 0:19.5
2:11:00.9 (4th)
+ 0:01.4
37:13.0 (5th)
+ 0:15.9
39:17.4 (17th)
+ 1:31.7
44:46.6 (28th)
SUNDBY Martin Johnsrud + 0:01.0
43:27.0 (3rd)
+ 0:06.2
37:17.8 (10th)
+ 0:06.0
43:20.9 (7th)
BELOV Evgeniy + 0:17.4
43:43.4 (10th)
+ 0:53.2
38:04.8 (36th)
+ 0:06.2
41:21.0 (4th)
+ 0:07.3
43:22.2 (8th)
HARVEY Alex + 1:38.2
45:04.2 (30th)
+ 4:31.4
2:15:12.8 (28th)
+ 1:08.8
38:20.4 (42nd)
+ 0:00.4
39:01.9 (3rd)
+ 0:20.2
41:35.0 (11th)
+ 1:04.5
44:19.4 (18th)
NOECKLER Dietmar + 0:13.8
43:39.8 (7th)
+ 1:11.4
2:11:52.8 (18th)
+ 0:06.7
37:18.3 (12th)
+ 0:09.6
39:11.1 (10th)
RICKARDSSON Daniel + 0:05.8
43:31.8 (5th)
+ 0:41.3
2:11:22.7 (10th)
+ 0:11.0
37:22.6 (18th)
+ 0:31.9
39:33.4 (29th)
+ 1:06.8
44:21.7 (21st)
FILBRICH Jens + 3:32.4
46:58.4 (48th)
+ 0:38.5
2:11:19.9 (9th)
+ 0:13.5
37:25.1 (21st)
+ 0:17.1
39:18.6 (19th)
+ 0:31.2
41:46.0 (13th)
+ 0:23.7
43:38.6 (12th)
CLARA Roland + 0:43.6
44:09.6 (18th)
+ 0:09.6
37:21.2 (15th)
+ 2:45.9
41:47.4 (58th)
+ 0:39.8
41:54.6 (16th)
+ 0:10.0
43:24.9 (9th)
KERSHAW Devon + 2:09.3
45:35.3 (36th)
+ 0:19.8
39:21.3 (21st)
+ 0:44.6
41:59.4 (17th)
+ 0:03.0
43:17.9 (5th)
ELIASSEN Petter + 0:18.0
43:44.0 (13th)
+ 0:54.8
2:11:36.2 (14th)
+ 0:17.3
41:32.1 (10th)
NORTHUG Petter jr. + 0:05.5
43:31.5 (4th)
+ 2:00.9
2:12:42.3 (21st)
+ 0:29.3
39:30.8 (28th)
GAILLARD Jean Marc + 0:43.9
44:09.9 (19th)
+ 0:34.6
37:46.2 (31st)
+ 0:22.3
39:23.8 (23rd)
+ 0:04.2
43:19.1 (6th)
JOENSSON Emil + 0:15.9
43:41.9 (9th)
+ 0:16.6
41:31.4 (9th)
LARKOV Andrey + 0:13.0
39:14.5 (13th)
+ 0:13.1
41:27.9 (7th)
TOENSETH Didrik + 0:01.0
37:12.6 (4th)
DYRHAUG Niklas + 0:01.9
43:16.8 (4th)
BABIKOV Ivan + 2:47.7
46:13.7 (41st)
+ 0:57.5
38:09.1 (39th)
+ 0:07.5
39:09.0 (7th)
+ 0:59.1
42:13.9 (20th)
GJERDALEN Tord Asle + 1:36.3
45:02.3 (29th)
+ 0:32.3
2:11:13.7 (6th)
+ 0:25.9
39:27.4 (27th)
JESPERSEN Chris Andre + 1:12.3
44:38.3 (24th)
+ 0:13.5
41:28.3 (8th)
KROGH Finn Haagen + 0:15.7
43:41.7 (8th)
+ 0:56.0
39:57.5 (36th)
DUERR Johannes + 1:39.9
45:05.9 (32nd)
+ 0:08.2
39:09.7 (8th)
SEDOV Petr + 0:18.3
43:33.2 (10th)
Historical results: Women Classic technique, Mass start
Name Falun
2013-03-23
Mass Classic 10 km
Val di Fiemme
2013-03-02
Mass Classic 30 km
La Clusaz
2013-01-19
Mass Classic 10 km
Val di Fiemme
2013-01-05
Mass Classic 10 km
Canmore
2012-12-13
Mass Classic 10 km
Falun
2012-03-17
Mass Classic 10 km
KOWALCZYK Justyna + 0:11.1
28:17.8 (4th)
+ 0:03.7
1:27:23.6 (2nd)
+ 0:18.0
27:22.6 (3rd)
+ 0:00.0
28:12.9 (1st)
+ 0:00.0
28:58.4 (1st)
+ 0:00.0
32:03.7 (1st)
BJOERGEN Marit + 0:00.0
28:06.7 (1st)
+ 0:00.0
1:27:19.9 (1st)
+ 0:00.0
27:04.6 (1st)
+ 0:21.7
32:25.4 (4th)
JOHAUG Therese + 0:03.9
28:10.6 (2nd)
+ 0:08.7
1:27:28.6 (3rd)
+ 0:02.7
27:07.3 (2nd)
+ 0:41.1
28:54.0 (4th)
+ 0:16.3
32:20.0 (3rd)
WENG Heidi + 0:11.0
28:17.7 (3rd)
+ 1:38.3
1:28:58.2 (4th)
+ 0:43.6
27:48.2 (5th)
+ 1:03.0
29:15.9 (7th)
+ 0:15.3
32:19.0 (2nd)
KYLLOENEN Anne + 0:40.2
28:46.9 (6th)
+ 2:16.1
1:29:36.0 (8th)
+ 0:49.4
27:54.0 (6th)
+ 1:13.0
29:25.9 (13th)
+ 0:14.4
29:12.8 (2nd)
+ 1:21.1
33:24.8 (12th)
STEIRA Kristin Stoermer + 1:30.8
29:37.5 (23rd)
+ 2:16.5
1:29:36.4 (9th)
+ 0:50.3
27:54.9 (7th)
+ 0:33.2
28:46.1 (2nd)
+ 0:31.8
29:30.2 (7th)
+ 1:06.0
33:09.7 (5th)
KALLA Charlotte + 0:39.9
28:46.6 (5th)
+ 3:44.7
1:31:04.6 (11th)
+ 1:47.9
28:52.5 (20th)
+ 1:32.3
29:45.2 (18th)
+ 1:11.6
33:15.3 (6th)
NISKANEN Kerttu + 0:40.6
28:47.3 (7th)
+ 2:12.8
1:29:32.7 (7th)
+ 0:54.5
27:59.1 (9th)
+ 1:03.5
29:16.4 (8th)
HAAG Anna + 1:14.3
29:21.0 (17th)
+ 2:05.7
1:29:25.6 (6th)
+ 1:59.6
29:04.2 (23rd)
+ 1:04.2
29:17.1 (10th)
+ 1:18.7
30:17.1 (16th)
+ 1:15.0
33:18.7 (10th)
SAARINEN Aino- Kaisa + 1:04.2
29:10.9 (12th)
+ 5:05.6
1:32:25.5 (17th)
+ 0:50.3
27:54.9 (8th)
+ 1:01.6
29:14.5 (5th)
+ 1:27.3
33:31.0 (18th)
ISHIDA Masako + 1:12.4
29:19.1 (16th)
+ 2:19.1
1:29:39.0 (10th)
+ 0:18.2
27:22.8 (4th)
+ 0:51.4
29:49.8 (10th)
+ 1:42.8
33:46.5 (23rd)
FALLA Maiken Caspersen + 1:11.0
29:17.7 (14th)
+ 4:00.4
31:05.0 (43rd)
+ 0:28.2
29:26.6 (3rd)
+ 1:12.3
33:16.0 (7th)
LAHTEENMAKI Krista + 0:58.3
29:05.0 (10th)
+ 0:39.0
28:51.9 (3rd)
+ 1:21.0
33:24.7 (11th)
DE MARTIN TOPRANIN Virginia + 1:11.5
29:18.2 (15th)
+ 5:40.2
1:33:00.1 (20th)
+ 1:09.2
28:13.8 (13th)
+ 1:20.9
29:33.8 (16th)
+ 0:37.5
29:35.9 (8th)
+ 1:23.8
33:27.5 (16th)
RANDALL Kikkan + 1:20.2
29:26.9 (19th)
+ 2:50.9
29:55.5 (32nd)
+ 1:05.0
29:17.9 (11th)
+ 0:30.6
29:29.0 (6th)
+ 1:22.2
33:25.9 (14th)
WIKEN Emma + 1:14.7
29:21.4 (18th)
+ 6:54.2
1:34:14.1 (22nd)
+ 1:01.3
28:05.9 (11th)
+ 1:01.9
29:14.8 (6th)
SHEVCHENKO Valentina + 2:04.6
30:11.3 (33rd)
+ 3:50.6
1:31:10.5 (12th)
+ 1:58.2
29:02.8 (22nd)
+ 1:40.8
29:53.7 (21st)
+ 0:44.4
29:42.8 (9th)
+ 1:38.7
33:42.4 (20th)
OESTBERG Ingvild Flugstad + 1:10.2
29:16.9 (13th)
+ 1:40.7
28:45.3 (19th)
+ 0:30.1
29:28.5 (5th)
+ 2:03.0
34:06.7 (27th)
JACOBSEN Astrid Uhrenholdt + 0:46.3
28:53.0 (9th)
+ 1:01.2
28:05.8 (10th)
+ 1:11.5
29:24.4 (12th)
FESSEL Nicole + 1:35.4
29:42.1 (24th)
+ 1:49.0
1:29:08.9 (5th)
+ 2:51.3
29:55.9 (33rd)
+ 1:23.2
33:26.9 (15th)
TCHEKALEVA Yulia + 0:43.9
28:50.6 (8th)
+ 4:06.6
1:31:26.5 (13th)
+ 1:25.1
29:38.0 (17th)
ROPONEN Riitta-Liisa + 1:11.4
28:16.0 (14th)
+ 1:03.7
29:16.6 (9th)
+ 1:25.9
33:29.6 (17th)
SKOFTERUD Vibeke W + 1:52.2
28:56.8 (21st)
+ 0:29.7
29:28.1 (4th)
KRISTOFFERSEN Marthe + 1:12.7
33:16.4 (8th)
HAGEN Martine Ek + 1:12.9
33:16.6 (9th)

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