Race Preview & XC-Predictions: Olympic Sprint Free Technique
The sprint is one of the most open disciplines in Cross Country skiing in the Olympics – especially in the men’s class where there have been 9(!) different winners in the previous 9 free technique sprints in the World Cup. The women have two big favourites in Kikkan Randall and Marit Bjørgen.
The sprint courses in Sochi are tough courses with a very tough hill – especially for the men – said to favor distance racers rather than the pure sprinters. The altitude will also make a the race a tough one.
Men
In the men’s free technique sprint there have been 9 different winners in the previous 9 free technique sprints in the World Cup – of these 8 are on the start. In addition to these 9, there are several other candidates for gold. First the 9 winners – going backwards in chronological order,
- Ola Vigen Hattested won the Toblach sprint – and has thus shown that he has peaked his shape at the right time. The course might be a bit tough for Hattestad – on the other hand the Norwegian is a real fighter.
- Alex Harvey won the sprint in Szlkarska Poreba in January. Not the biggest favourite – but definitely one of the many outsiders.
- Sergey Ustiugov won the Nove Mesto sprint earlier in January – a strong Russian who counts as one of the outsiders in the Sochi sprint.
- The Lenzerheide sprint (Tour de Ski) at New Years Eve was one by Simon Hamilton. The American is not one of the main favourites – but having one a free technique sprint this season he has to be looked out for.
- Calle Halfvarsson won the sprint in Oberhof (Tour de Ski) at December 29th last year. Also not one of the biggest favourites – but still among the outsiders.
- The Davos sprint in December was won by the Norwegian Anders Gløersen. Another outsider – Gløersen has also had some good distance race performances this year.
- Going back to last season (March), Swedish Emil Jönsson won the last free technique sprint of last season in Lathti. Jönsson has lost a few kilos to prepare for the Sochi courses – but has so far not impressed in the World Cup. Still Jönsson is among the favourites in Sochi.
- Petter Northug won the sprint in the pre-Olympics in Sochi last year – and has thus shown that he can perform very well on this tough sprint course. Northug was not strong enough to keep up the speed of the leading pack the last hill on the Skiathlon – but Northug says he is in shape. One of the big favourites!
- The last World Cup winner – Finn Hågen Krogh – was originally given a place on the Norwegian team, but was put out of the team after the win by Ola Vigen Hattestad in Toblach.
Then the favourites/outsiders without a win in the last 9 World Cup races:
- Alexey Petukhov – a strong Russian who can take it all the way on home ground. 3rd in the Nove Mesto sprint in January.
- Nikita Kriukov – another strong Russian. Not the best results lately, but could still go all the way in these Olympics.
- Dario Cologna won the Skiathlon – and was 2nd behind Northug in the pre-Olympics last year. Is he fast enough after the injury problems? Still one of the big favourites on this course.
- Eirik Brandsdal. The Norwegian finished second in Toblach and 4th in Nove Mesto – a strong outsider.
- Italian Federica Pellegrino has 5 times Top 6 the last 9 World Cup sprints in free technique, and is one of the outsiders.
- Other outsiders: Teodor Peterson, Martti Julhëe, Marcus Hellner, Josef Wenzl, Andy Newell, Anton Gafarov.
See below for historical results.
Women
In the women’s class, there are a few very clear favourites – and not than many potential winners. Still this is the most open race also in the women’s class:
- Kikkan Randall has five wins and two second places in her last 8 starts in the World Cup in free technique sprint – and since 2010 she has only been outside the finals twice(!) – very impressive in a millimeter discipline like sprint. The big favourite here at the Olympics.
- Marit Bjørgen is the other big favourite. Bjørgen beat Randall in Toblach on this discipline just ahead of the Olympics, and has shown impressive shape lately with the Skiathlon win. The course should also fit Bjørgen well.
- Ingvild Flugstad Østberg has been very impressive in sprint lately – one victory and three times Top 3 in the last four free technique sprints she has started in.
- German Denise Hermann has been just as impressive as Flugstad Østberg – except the victory is missing. Six times in a row in Top 5 – with 2nd place in the two last free technique sprint races.
- Hanna Erikson took the victory in the free technique sprint in Oberhof, but has not impressed that much lately.
- Maiken Caspersen Falla is the only one except for Marit Bjørgen who has beaten Kikkan Randall in a free technique sprint the last seasons. Has not had full success in the sprints so far this season, but has now trained well and wants to show her shape. 4th in Toblach!
- Also look out for Jacobsen, Ingemarsdotter, Aurore, Kolb and Van der Graff.
Historical results: Men Free technique, Sprint
Name |
Toblach/Dobbiaco 2014-02-02 Sprint Free |
Szklarska Poreba 2014-01-18 Sprint Free |
Nove Mesto na Morave 2014-01-11 Sprint Free |
Lenzerheide 2013-12-31 Sprint Free |
Oberhof 2013-12-29 Sprint Free |
Davos 2013-12-15 Sprint Free |
Lahti 2013-03-09 Sprint Free |
Sochi 2013-02-01 Sprint Free |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PELLEGRINO Federico | 16th | 13th | 2nd | 4th | 2nd | 6th | 31st | 56th | |
WENZL Josef | 3rd | 2nd | 15th | 11th | 5th | 16th | |||
HATTESTAD Ola Vigen | 1st | 12th | 11th | 2nd | 44th | ||||
USTIUGOV Sergey | 1st | 3rd | 23rd | 4th | |||||
HARVEY Alex | 20th | 1st | 2nd | 11th | 45th | 56th | |||
KROGH Finn Haagen | 41st | 7th | 5th | 29th | 5th | 3rd | |||
NORTHUG Petter jr. | 29th | 7th | 6th | 28th | 1st | ||||
HALFVARSSON Calle | 12th | 6th | 1st | 26th | 17th | ||||
PETUKHOV Alexey | 26th | 3rd | 4th | 14th | 6th | ||||
NEWELL Andrew | 17th | 6th | 17th | 8th | 10th | 17th | 27th | 13th | |
BRANDSDAL Eirik | 2nd | 4th | 8th | ||||||
HAMILTON Simeon | 14th | 20th | 1st | 35th | 14th | 58th | 17th | ||
GLOEERSEN Anders | 23rd | 21st | 1st | 21st | 9th | ||||
JYLHAE Martti | 13th | 11th | 2nd | 18th | 50th | ||||
MORILOV Nikolay | 18th | 21st | 5th | 18th | 9th | 11th | |||
JOENSSON Emil | 11th | 22nd | 1st | 31st | |||||
GAFAROV Anton | 7th | 18th | 13th | 6th | 12th | ||||
KRIUKOV Nikita | 9th | 10th | 12th | 70th | 5th | ||||
PETERSON Teodor | 5th | 6th | 7th | 34th | 77th | ||||
SUNDBY Martin Johnsrud | 43rd | 3rd | 3rd | 48th | |||||
HOFER David | 7th | 39th | 20th | 71st | 59th | 56th | 3rd | ||
HEDIGER Jovian | 6th | 12th | 47th | 41st | 7th | 58th | |||
KINDSCHI Joeri | 8th | 28th | 25th | 22nd | 15th | 46th | 13th | 34th | |
COLOGNA Dario | 32nd | 41st | 2nd | ||||||
EISENLAUER Sebastian | 75th | 24th | 55th | 18th | 7th | 15th | 24th | ||
TSCHARNKE Tim | 8th | 10th | 13th | 41st | |||||
CHERNOUSOV Ilia | 63rd | 9th | 19th | 7th | |||||
GROS Baptiste | 34th | 3rd | 32nd | 52nd | 19th | ||||
RETIVYKH Gleb | 10th | 43rd | 5th | 39th | |||||
CHEBOTKO Nikolay | 26th | 24th | 37th | 4th | 22nd | ||||
WURM Harald | 15th | 15th | 30th | 21st | 38th | 42nd | 48th | 10th | |
ERIKSSON Jens | 17th | 4th | 29th | 52nd | |||||
SCHAAD Roman | 9th | 22nd | 10th | ||||||
GAILLARD Cyril | 30th | 4th | 46th | 20th | |||||
KERSHAW Devon | 60th | 18th | 56th | 18th | 69th | 8th | |||
LINDBLAD Anton | 9th | 38th | 12th | 49th | |||||
GOLBERG Paal | 4th | 34th | |||||||
PERSSON Simon | 38th | 26th | 9th | 15th | 61st | ||||
JAEGER Martin | 28th | 5th | 58th | 33rd | 37th | ||||
MIRANDA Cyril | 20th | 8th | |||||||
VALJAS Len | 64th | 61st | 8th | 20th | |||||
BELOV Evgeniy | 49th | 8th | |||||||
LEGKOV Alexander | 58th | 37th | 9th | ||||||
SKAR Sindre Bjoernestad | 10th | ||||||||
MIKKONEN Juho | 10th | 36th | 50th | 52nd |
Historical results: Women Free technique, Sprint
Name |
Toblach/Dobbiaco 2014-02-02 Sprint Free |
Szklarska Poreba 2014-01-18 Sprint Free |
Nove Mesto na Morave 2014-01-11 Sprint Free |
Lenzerheide 2013-12-31 Sprint Free |
Oberhof 2013-12-29 Sprint Free |
Davos 2013-12-15 Sprint Free |
Lahti 2013-03-09 Sprint Free |
Sochi 2013-02-01 Sprint Free |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RANDALL Kikkan | 5th | 1st | 1st | 2nd | 1st | 1st | |||
HERRMANN Denise | 2nd | 2nd | 5th | 3rd | 2nd | 3rd | 14th | 14th | |
BJOERGEN Marit | 1st | 13th | 5th | 1st | 2nd | ||||
OESTBERG Ingvild Flugstad | 3rd | 3rd | 1st | 3rd | 7th | 13th | |||
VAN DER GRAAFF Laurien | 16th | 6th | 2nd | 4th | 13th | 10th | 15th | 8th | |
ERIKSON Hanna | 35th | 28th | 8th | 1st | 4th | ||||
KOLB Hanna | 17th | 16th | 14th | 5th | 10th | 22nd | 12th | 9th | |
JACOBSEN Astrid Uhrenholdt | 14th | 2nd | 26th | 13th | 30th | 4th | |||
VUERICH Gaia | 27th | 8th | 4th | 10th | 9th | 21st | 19th | ||
FABJAN Vesna | 7th | 3rd | 5th | 21st | 39th | ||||
JEAN Aurore | 12th | 42nd | 9th | 29th | 44th | 18th | 2nd | ||
BRUN-LIE Celine | 26th | 8th | 18th | 7th | 3rd | ||||
CALDWELL Sophie | 19th | 7th | 15th | 6th | 22nd | 9th | 55th | ||
KYLLOENEN Anne | 13th | 7th | 8th | 20th | 23rd | 13th | |||
VISNAR Katja | 6th | 14th | 11th | 14th | 19th | 27th | |||
DIGGINS Jessica | 28th | 5th | 21st | 18th | 12th | 25th | 15th | ||
INGEMARSDOTTER Ida | 9th | 6th | 39th | 7th | |||||
WENG Heidi | 8th | 12th | 35th | 15th | 11th | ||||
NILSSON Stina | 9th | 6th | 17th | 25th | |||||
SARASOJA-LILJA Riikka | 15th | 30th | 35th | 34th | 11th | 5th | |||
FALLA Maiken Caspersen | 4th | 35th | 8th | 33rd | |||||
JASKOWIEC Sylwia | 4th | 23rd | 12th | 56th | |||||
MATVEEVA Natalia | 12th | 19th | 35th | 8th | 28th | ||||
PROCHAZKOVA Alena | 51st | 46th | 3rd | 24th | |||||
ANGER Lucia | 20th | 20th | 27th | 40th | 6th | ||||
LAUKKANEN Mari | 21st | 23rd | 5th | ||||||
FESSEL Nicole | 4th | 56th | 20th | ||||||
SARGENT Ida | 33rd | 13th | 50th | 41st | 38th | 6th | |||
OEBERG Jennie | 7th | 37th | 16th | 23rd | |||||
JOHANSSON NORGREN Britta | 22nd | 33rd | 4th | 45th | |||||
NIKOLAEVA Svetlana | 44th | 9th | 29th | 36th | 10th | ||||
HARSEM Kathrine Rolsted | 10th | 12th | |||||||
KOWALCZYK Justyna | 17th | 34th | 25th | 10th | 43rd | ||||
BJORNSEN Sadie | 37th | 27th | 9th | 21st | |||||
JONES Perianne | 30th | 10th | 39th | 39th | 28th | 34th | 18th | ||
JOHAUG Therese | 24th | 7th | 49th | ||||||
KALLA Charlotte | 31st | 6th | |||||||
MALVALEHTO Mona-Lisa | 10th | 33rd | 63rd | 30th |