Tour de Ski Alpe Cermis: Splits analysis men

Posted by Jan Kocbach, 09 Jan 2011@14:55


Lukas Bauer beat them all up Alpe Cermis! It was enough to bring Bauer up from the 10th spot to the podium – but nobody could beat Cologna and Northug in the overall. The above illustration shows a splits analysis of the development in the final Tour de Ski stage up Alpe Cermis for the men – highlighting how Lukas Bauer did a fantastic race – crushing all of the other skiers.

The illustration shows how Northug gained a lot of time in the flat part of the race, taking nearly half of the gap up to Cologna – and also increasing the gap down to Bauer and the other chasing behind. From the start of the climb, Bauer accelerated past the group, and gained a lot of time on Cologna and Northug.

Lukas Bauer had the best split time in all splits in the climb – except for the last climb where Ivan Babikov was fastest.

Gaillard obviously tried too hard to keep the speed of Bauer at the start of the climb, and lost a lot of time on the second last split after trying to stick to Bauer. This might have cost him the 4th spot – as Curdin Perl and Roland Clara passed him afterwards.

Stage results

1 10 1217350 BAUER Lukas CZE 30:28.3
2 9 3290016 CLARA Roland ITA 31:00.7
3 5 1362947 PERL Curdin SUI 31:02.1
4 14 1100077 VITTOZ Vincent FRA 31:03.3
5 2 3420239 NORTHUG Petter jr. NOR 31:07.3
6 25 3100190 BABIKOV Ivan CAN 31:15.4
7 33 1285347 FREEMAN Kris USA 31:22.2
8 21 1297957 MORIGGL Thomas ITA 31:26.3
9 6 1345875 GAILLARD Jean Marc FRA 31:29.7
10 13 3200015 REICHELT Tom GER 31:31.5
Do your own analysis

You may also open the splitsbrowser yourself to make your own analysis of the race. A flat line on a split means that an athlete is the fastest on a split. The steeper the line goes, the more an athlete looses on that split. Note that all lines start at 0:00 instead of at the actual start time, thus the illustration is not useful for the first split.

WhoWins XC Predictions
Split 2
1. 03:51 Petter NORTHUG NOR
2. 03:57 +00:06 Tord Asle GJERDALEN NOR
3. 03:58 +00:07 Roland CLARA ITA
4. 03:58 +00:07 Alex HARVEY CAN
5. 03:58 +00:08 Daniel RICKARDSSON SWE
6. 03:58 +00:08 Giorgio DI CENTA ITA
7. 03:59 +00:08 Devon KERSHAW CAN
8. 03:59 +00:08 Tom REICHELT GER
9. 03:59 +00:08 Vincent VITTOZ FRA
10. 03:59 +00:08 Curdin PERL SUI
11. 04:00 +00:09 Jean Marc GAILLARD FRA
13. 04:02 +00:11 Lukas BAUER CZE
32. 04:09 +00:18 Dario COLOGNA SUI
Split 3
1. 05:28 Petter NORTHUG NOR
2. 05:39 +00:10 Lukas BAUER CZE
3. 05:39 +00:10 Tord Asle GJERDALEN NOR
4. 05:41 +00:12 Jean Marc GAILLARD FRA
5. 05:41 +00:13 Giorgio DI CENTA ITA
6. 05:42 +00:13 Roland CLARA ITA
7. 05:42 +00:14 Curdin PERL SUI
8. 05:43 +00:14 Vincent VITTOZ FRA
9. 05:43 +00:15 Alex HARVEY CAN
10. 05:43 +00:15 Devon KERSHAW CAN
11. 05:43 +00:15 Martin JAKS CZE
13. 05:44 +00:16 Dario COLOGNA SUI
Split 4
1. 02:47 Lukas BAUER CZE
2. 02:50 +00:03 Dmitriy JAPAROV RUS
3. 02:51 +00:04 Curdin PERL SUI
4. 02:51 +00:04 Marcus HELLNER SWE
5. 02:51 +00:04 Vincent VITTOZ FRA
6. 02:51 +00:04 Jean Marc GAILLARD FRA
7. 02:52 +00:04 Dario COLOGNA SUI
8. 02:52 +00:05 Tom REICHELT GER
9. 02:52 +00:05 Robin DUVILLARD FRA
10. 02:52 +00:05 Remo FISCHER SUI
11. 02:52 +00:05 Thomas MORIGGL ITA
26. 02:58 +00:11 Roland CLARA ITA
28. 02:59 +00:12 Petter NORTHUG NOR
Split 5
1. 05:38 Lukas BAUER CZE
2. 05:48 +00:10 Giorgio DI CENTA ITA
3. 05:48 +00:11 Jean Marc GAILLARD FRA
4. 05:50 +00:13 Vincent VITTOZ FRA
5. 05:51 +00:14 Curdin PERL SUI
6. 05:52 +00:14 Robin DUVILLARD FRA
7. 05:52 +00:14 Ivan BABIKOV CAN
8. 05:53 +00:15 Thomas MORIGGL ITA
9. 05:53 +00:16 Tom REICHELT GER
10. 05:54 +00:16 Dario COLOGNA SUI
11. 05:54 +00:17 Roland CLARA ITA
13. 05:57 +00:20 Petter NORTHUG NOR
Split 6
1. 04:44 Lukas BAUER CZE
2. 04:57 +00:13 Roland CLARA ITA
3. 04:58 +00:14 Curdin PERL SUI
4. 05:00 +00:16 Vincent VITTOZ FRA
5. 05:01 +00:17 Ivan BABIKOV CAN
6. 05:01 +00:17 Thomas MORIGGL ITA
7. 05:01 +00:17 Robin DUVILLARD FRA
8. 05:06 +00:22 Tom REICHELT GER
9. 05:06 +00:22 Remo FISCHER SUI
10. 05:06 +00:22 Devon KERSHAW CAN
11. 05:06 +00:22 Tord Asle GJERDALEN NOR
14. 05:12 +00:28 Petter NORTHUG NOR
15. 05:14 +00:30 Dario COLOGNA SUI
21. 05:21 +00:37 Jean Marc GAILLARD FRA
Split 7
1. 03:39 Ivan BABIKOV CAN
2. 03:46 +00:07 Thomas MORIGGL ITA
3. 03:47 +00:08 Curdin PERL SUI
4. 03:48 +00:09 Roland CLARA ITA
5. 03:49 +00:10 Vincent VITTOZ FRA
6. 03:52 +00:13 Lukas BAUER CZE
7. 03:52 +00:14 Roger Aa DJUPVIK NOR
8. 03:54 +00:15 Roman LEYBYUK UKR
9. 03:55 +00:16 Remo FISCHER SUI
10. 03:55 +00:16 Christophe PERRILLAT FRA
11. 03:55 +00:17 Tom REICHELT GER
13. 03:56 +00:17 Petter NORTHUG NOR
16. 03:57 +00:18 Jean Marc GAILLARD FRA
28. 04:17 +00:38 Dario COLOGNA SUI
Overall (unofficial results from live timing)
1. 31:58 Dario COLOGNA SUI
2. 32:25 +00:27 Petter NORTHUG NOR
3. 33:42 +01:44 Lukas BAUER CZE
4. 33:56 +01:58 Curdin PERL SUI
5. 34:05 +02:07 Roland CLARA ITA
6. 34:26 +02:28 Jean Marc GAILLARD FRA
7. 34:30 +02:32 Devon KERSHAW CAN
8. 34:38 +02:40 Martin JAKS CZE
9. 34:58 +03:00 Daniel RICKARDSSON SWE
10. 35:07 +03:09 Alex HARVEY CAN
11. 35:31 +03:33 Vincent VITTOZ FRA
12. 35:49 +03:51 Tom REICHELT GER
13. 36:17 +04:19 Giorgio DI CENTA ITA
14. 36:29 +04:31 Marcus HELLNER SWE
15. 36:58 +05:00 Jens FILBRICH GER
16. 37:53 +05:55 Tord Asle GJERDALEN NOR
17. 38:04 +06:06 Maurice MANIFICAT FRA
18. 39:15 +07:17 Thomas MORIGGL ITA
19. 39:40 +07:42 Roger Aa DJUPVIK NOR
20. 39:42 +07:44 Robin DUVILLARD FRA
21. 39:47 +07:49 Ivan BABIKOV CAN
22. 40:32 +08:33 Remo FISCHER SUI
23. 40:46 +08:48 Dmitriy JAPAROV RUS
24. 41:42 +09:44 Sergey TURYCHEV RUS
25. 42:23 +10:25 Alexander BESSMERTNYKH RUS
26. 42:27 +10:29 Kristian Tettli RENNEMO NOR
27. 45:30 +13:32 Jaak MAE EST
28. 46:22 +14:24 Christophe PERRILLAT FRA
29. 47:31 +15:33 Snorri EINARSSON NOR
30. 50:17 +18:19 Maciej KRECZMER POL
31. 51:04 +19:06 Roman LEYBYUK UKR
32. 52:39 +20:41 Mariusz MICHALEK POL
33. 52:53 +20:55 Benoit-Gilles DUFOURD FRA
34. 10:43 +38:45 Francesc SOULIE AND
35. 06:27 +34:29 Callum WATSON AUS
Overall WhoWins results Tour de Ski

Congratulations to Qstoffe who took the overall victory in the Tour de Ski predictions! Fighting with more than 100 others, Qstoffe came up from behind and took the victory with 6007 points – more than 100 points ahead of Mats L in second and with a big gap down to Gigi in third.

Looking at the overall results, also big compliments to Ole-Johan in 10th spot who is the best of the ones with only 7 predictions. He has an average points of 775 – 15 points better than Qstoffe’s 750 points on average.

# Name Total points Average points Min points Maxpoints # predictions
1 qstoffe 6007 750 482 1112 8 predictions
2 Mats L 5903 737 528 1025 8 predictions
3 Gigi 5750 718 554 945 8 predictions
4 geraldo13 5705 713 395 987 8 predictions
5 Christopher Tassava 5634 704 484 1028 8 predictions
6 tom 5551 693 475 1092 8 predictions
7 DukeC 5517 689 439 1092 8 predictions
8 Mountainmums 5505 688 455 985 8 predictions
9 Anders & Maria H 5487 685 299 1075 8 predictions
10 Ole-Johan 5428 775 528 1219 7 predictions

The winner of today’s predictions was smeagol with 1280 points – this is also a new record number of points for the WhoWins predictions! ¬†Smeagol hit the big jackpot, getting all the women right, and also all men except for number 4 (where Smeagol tipped Gaillard instead of Perl. Compliments to Smeagol for that achievement!

Going forward after the Tour de Ski, there will probably be some changes in the rules for the WhoWins predictions based on comments from the readers. Here is one suggestion for a new set of rules:
  • Instead of doubling the number of points for a correct predicted position, there will be a bonus of 50 points if you have number 1 correct, 30 points for number 2 and 20 points for number 3.
  • Skiers which are not among the favourites will give extra points. It looks like the best way to do it is that all skiers are grouped in two groups – the favourites and the non-favourites. For all non-favourites, you get double points for your predictions. When setting up your predictions, you can see graphically which skiers are in the favourite-group and which are outside. This will probably be based on FIS-points / previous results, and only change a few times within each season. Also, there will not be different groups for sprint/distance (difficult to set up technically). ¬†I can imagine having around 25-30 skiers in the favourite group?
  • If you do not set up predictions for a race, your predictions go on to the next race unaltered.
  • If the rules are changed this way, it turn the WhoWins predictions a bit more into a type of “Fantasy World Cup”, but it looks like this is what people want based on the comments I have gotten.

Thanks to all for participating in the WhoWins predictions. It has been great fun so far with a few hundred different people participating – and I am sure it will be in the future as well. Please post comments on the format of the WhoWins predictions below. I don’t want to make these changes if you aren’t happy with them!

5 Comments

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Pingback by WorldofXC Blog » Tour de Ski Alpe Cermis: Splits analysis women

January 9, 2011 @ 15:22

[...] See also splits analysis men [...]

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Comment by steve

January 9, 2011 @ 15:49

Where is Freeman in this. On fis site it says he had the 7th fastest time?

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Comment by Jan Kocbach

January 9, 2011 @ 15:53

@Steve: Freeman did not have any splits in the live timing, and is therefore not included here. Sorry about that – the info on the FIS-site about his 7th fastest time should be correct. According to Kikkan Randall, Freeman forgot his transponders.

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Pingback by WorldofXC Blog » Overall Tour de Ski predictions

January 9, 2011 @ 16:00

[...] Splits analysis Alpe Cermis, men [...]

Pingback by WorldofXC Blog » Tour de Ski Alpe Cermis: Splits analysis women 2011

January 8, 2012 @ 13:37

[...] See also splits analysis men [...]

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