Tour de Ski Alpe Cermis: Splits analysis men
Lukas Bauer beat them all up Alpe Cermis! It was enough to bring Bauer up from the 10th spot to the podium – but nobody could beat Cologna and Northug in the overall. The above illustration shows a splits analysis of the development in the final Tour de Ski stage up Alpe Cermis for the men – highlighting how Lukas Bauer did a fantastic race – crushing all of the other skiers.
The illustration shows how Northug gained a lot of time in the flat part of the race, taking nearly half of the gap up to Cologna – and also increasing the gap down to Bauer and the other chasing behind. From the start of the climb, Bauer accelerated past the group, and gained a lot of time on Cologna and Northug.
Lukas Bauer had the best split time in all splits in the climb – except for the last climb where Ivan Babikov was fastest.
Gaillard obviously tried too hard to keep the speed of Bauer at the start of the climb, and lost a lot of time on the second last split after trying to stick to Bauer. This might have cost him the 4th spot – as Curdin Perl and Roland Clara passed him afterwards.
Stage results
1 | 10 | 1217350 | BAUER Lukas | CZE | 30:28.3 |
2 | 9 | 3290016 | CLARA Roland | ITA | 31:00.7 |
3 | 5 | 1362947 | PERL Curdin | SUI | 31:02.1 |
4 | 14 | 1100077 | VITTOZ Vincent | FRA | 31:03.3 |
5 | 2 | 3420239 | NORTHUG Petter jr. | NOR | 31:07.3 |
6 | 25 | 3100190 | BABIKOV Ivan | CAN | 31:15.4 |
7 | 33 | 1285347 | FREEMAN Kris | USA | 31:22.2 |
8 | 21 | 1297957 | MORIGGL Thomas | ITA | 31:26.3 |
9 | 6 | 1345875 | GAILLARD Jean Marc | FRA | 31:29.7 |
10 | 13 | 3200015 | REICHELT Tom | GER | 31:31.5 |
Do your own analysis
You may also open the splitsbrowser yourself to make your own analysis of the race. A flat line on a split means that an athlete is the fastest on a split. The steeper the line goes, the more an athlete looses on that split. Note that all lines start at 0:00 instead of at the actual start time, thus the illustration is not useful for the first split.
- Splitsbrowser applet – do your own analysis
- Tables of splits
- See also splits analysis women
- Results for the Alpe Cermis stage from FIS-ski
WhoWins XC Predictions
Split 2
1. | 03:51 | Petter NORTHUG | NOR | ||
2. | 03:57 | +00:06 | Tord Asle GJERDALEN | NOR | |
3. | 03:58 | +00:07 | Roland CLARA | ITA | |
4. | 03:58 | +00:07 | Alex HARVEY | CAN | |
5. | 03:58 | +00:08 | Daniel RICKARDSSON | SWE | |
6. | 03:58 | +00:08 | Giorgio DI CENTA | ITA | |
7. | 03:59 | +00:08 | Devon KERSHAW | CAN | |
8. | 03:59 | +00:08 | Tom REICHELT | GER | |
9. | 03:59 | +00:08 | Vincent VITTOZ | FRA | |
10. | 03:59 | +00:08 | Curdin PERL | SUI | |
11. | 04:00 | +00:09 | Jean Marc GAILLARD | FRA | |
13. | 04:02 | +00:11 | Lukas BAUER | CZE | |
32. | 04:09 | +00:18 | Dario COLOGNA | SUI |
Split 3
1. | 05:28 | Petter NORTHUG | NOR | ||
2. | 05:39 | +00:10 | Lukas BAUER | CZE | |
3. | 05:39 | +00:10 | Tord Asle GJERDALEN | NOR | |
4. | 05:41 | +00:12 | Jean Marc GAILLARD | FRA | |
5. | 05:41 | +00:13 | Giorgio DI CENTA | ITA | |
6. | 05:42 | +00:13 | Roland CLARA | ITA | |
7. | 05:42 | +00:14 | Curdin PERL | SUI | |
8. | 05:43 | +00:14 | Vincent VITTOZ | FRA | |
9. | 05:43 | +00:15 | Alex HARVEY | CAN | |
10. | 05:43 | +00:15 | Devon KERSHAW | CAN | |
11. | 05:43 | +00:15 | Martin JAKS | CZE | |
13. | 05:44 | +00:16 | Dario COLOGNA | SUI |
Split 4
1. | 02:47 | Lukas BAUER | CZE | ||
2. | 02:50 | +00:03 | Dmitriy JAPAROV | RUS | |
3. | 02:51 | +00:04 | Curdin PERL | SUI | |
4. | 02:51 | +00:04 | Marcus HELLNER | SWE | |
5. | 02:51 | +00:04 | Vincent VITTOZ | FRA | |
6. | 02:51 | +00:04 | Jean Marc GAILLARD | FRA | |
7. | 02:52 | +00:04 | Dario COLOGNA | SUI | |
8. | 02:52 | +00:05 | Tom REICHELT | GER | |
9. | 02:52 | +00:05 | Robin DUVILLARD | FRA | |
10. | 02:52 | +00:05 | Remo FISCHER | SUI | |
11. | 02:52 | +00:05 | Thomas MORIGGL | ITA | |
26. | 02:58 | +00:11 | Roland CLARA | ITA | |
28. | 02:59 | +00:12 | Petter NORTHUG | NOR |
Split 5
1. | 05:38 | Lukas BAUER | CZE | ||
2. | 05:48 | +00:10 | Giorgio DI CENTA | ITA | |
3. | 05:48 | +00:11 | Jean Marc GAILLARD | FRA | |
4. | 05:50 | +00:13 | Vincent VITTOZ | FRA | |
5. | 05:51 | +00:14 | Curdin PERL | SUI | |
6. | 05:52 | +00:14 | Robin DUVILLARD | FRA | |
7. | 05:52 | +00:14 | Ivan BABIKOV | CAN | |
8. | 05:53 | +00:15 | Thomas MORIGGL | ITA | |
9. | 05:53 | +00:16 | Tom REICHELT | GER | |
10. | 05:54 | +00:16 | Dario COLOGNA | SUI | |
11. | 05:54 | +00:17 | Roland CLARA | ITA | |
13. | 05:57 | +00:20 | Petter NORTHUG | NOR |
Split 6
1. | 04:44 | Lukas BAUER | CZE | ||
2. | 04:57 | +00:13 | Roland CLARA | ITA | |
3. | 04:58 | +00:14 | Curdin PERL | SUI | |
4. | 05:00 | +00:16 | Vincent VITTOZ | FRA | |
5. | 05:01 | +00:17 | Ivan BABIKOV | CAN | |
6. | 05:01 | +00:17 | Thomas MORIGGL | ITA | |
7. | 05:01 | +00:17 | Robin DUVILLARD | FRA | |
8. | 05:06 | +00:22 | Tom REICHELT | GER | |
9. | 05:06 | +00:22 | Remo FISCHER | SUI | |
10. | 05:06 | +00:22 | Devon KERSHAW | CAN | |
11. | 05:06 | +00:22 | Tord Asle GJERDALEN | NOR | |
14. | 05:12 | +00:28 | Petter NORTHUG | NOR | |
15. | 05:14 | +00:30 | Dario COLOGNA | SUI | |
21. | 05:21 | +00:37 | Jean Marc GAILLARD | FRA |
Split 7
1. | 03:39 | Ivan BABIKOV | CAN | ||
2. | 03:46 | +00:07 | Thomas MORIGGL | ITA | |
3. | 03:47 | +00:08 | Curdin PERL | SUI | |
4. | 03:48 | +00:09 | Roland CLARA | ITA | |
5. | 03:49 | +00:10 | Vincent VITTOZ | FRA | |
6. | 03:52 | +00:13 | Lukas BAUER | CZE | |
7. | 03:52 | +00:14 | Roger Aa DJUPVIK | NOR | |
8. | 03:54 | +00:15 | Roman LEYBYUK | UKR | |
9. | 03:55 | +00:16 | Remo FISCHER | SUI | |
10. | 03:55 | +00:16 | Christophe PERRILLAT | FRA | |
11. | 03:55 | +00:17 | Tom REICHELT | GER | |
13. | 03:56 | +00:17 | Petter NORTHUG | NOR | |
16. | 03:57 | +00:18 | Jean Marc GAILLARD | FRA | |
28. | 04:17 | +00:38 | Dario COLOGNA | SUI |
Overall (unofficial results from live timing)
1. | 31:58 | Dario COLOGNA | SUI | ||
2. | 32:25 | +00:27 | Petter NORTHUG | NOR | |
3. | 33:42 | +01:44 | Lukas BAUER | CZE | |
4. | 33:56 | +01:58 | Curdin PERL | SUI | |
5. | 34:05 | +02:07 | Roland CLARA | ITA | |
6. | 34:26 | +02:28 | Jean Marc GAILLARD | FRA | |
7. | 34:30 | +02:32 | Devon KERSHAW | CAN | |
8. | 34:38 | +02:40 | Martin JAKS | CZE | |
9. | 34:58 | +03:00 | Daniel RICKARDSSON | SWE | |
10. | 35:07 | +03:09 | Alex HARVEY | CAN | |
11. | 35:31 | +03:33 | Vincent VITTOZ | FRA | |
12. | 35:49 | +03:51 | Tom REICHELT | GER | |
13. | 36:17 | +04:19 | Giorgio DI CENTA | ITA | |
14. | 36:29 | +04:31 | Marcus HELLNER | SWE | |
15. | 36:58 | +05:00 | Jens FILBRICH | GER | |
16. | 37:53 | +05:55 | Tord Asle GJERDALEN | NOR | |
17. | 38:04 | +06:06 | Maurice MANIFICAT | FRA | |
18. | 39:15 | +07:17 | Thomas MORIGGL | ITA | |
19. | 39:40 | +07:42 | Roger Aa DJUPVIK | NOR | |
20. | 39:42 | +07:44 | Robin DUVILLARD | FRA | |
21. | 39:47 | +07:49 | Ivan BABIKOV | CAN | |
22. | 40:32 | +08:33 | Remo FISCHER | SUI | |
23. | 40:46 | +08:48 | Dmitriy JAPAROV | RUS | |
24. | 41:42 | +09:44 | Sergey TURYCHEV | RUS | |
25. | 42:23 | +10:25 | Alexander BESSMERTNYKH | RUS | |
26. | 42:27 | +10:29 | Kristian Tettli RENNEMO | NOR | |
27. | 45:30 | +13:32 | Jaak MAE | EST | |
28. | 46:22 | +14:24 | Christophe PERRILLAT | FRA | |
29. | 47:31 | +15:33 | Snorri EINARSSON | NOR | |
30. | 50:17 | +18:19 | Maciej KRECZMER | POL | |
31. | 51:04 | +19:06 | Roman LEYBYUK | UKR | |
32. | 52:39 | +20:41 | Mariusz MICHALEK | POL | |
33. | 52:53 | +20:55 | Benoit-Gilles DUFOURD | FRA | |
34. | 10:43 | +38:45 | Francesc SOULIE | AND | |
35. | 06:27 | +34:29 | Callum WATSON | AUS |
Overall WhoWins results Tour de Ski
Congratulations to Qstoffe who took the overall victory in the Tour de Ski predictions! Fighting with more than 100 others, Qstoffe came up from behind and took the victory with 6007 points – more than 100 points ahead of Mats L in second and with a big gap down to Gigi in third.
Looking at the overall results, also big compliments to Ole-Johan in 10th spot who is the best of the ones with only 7 predictions. He has an average points of 775 – 15 points better than Qstoffe’s 750 points on average.
# | Name | Total points | Average points | Min points | Maxpoints | # predictions |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | qstoffe | 6007 | 750 | 482 | 1112 | 8 predictions |
2 | Mats L | 5903 | 737 | 528 | 1025 | 8 predictions |
3 | Gigi | 5750 | 718 | 554 | 945 | 8 predictions |
4 | geraldo13 | 5705 | 713 | 395 | 987 | 8 predictions |
5 | Christopher Tassava | 5634 | 704 | 484 | 1028 | 8 predictions |
6 | tom | 5551 | 693 | 475 | 1092 | 8 predictions |
7 | DukeC | 5517 | 689 | 439 | 1092 | 8 predictions |
8 | Mountainmums | 5505 | 688 | 455 | 985 | 8 predictions |
9 | Anders & Maria H | 5487 | 685 | 299 | 1075 | 8 predictions |
10 | Ole-Johan | 5428 | 775 | 528 | 1219 | 7 predictions |
The winner of today’s predictions was smeagol with 1280 points – this is also a new record number of points for the WhoWins predictions! Smeagol hit the big jackpot, getting all the women right, and also all men except for number 4 (where Smeagol tipped Gaillard instead of Perl. Compliments to Smeagol for that achievement!
- Full results for the predictions for the last stage of Tour de Ski
- Overall accumulated Tour de Ski prediction results (final results after 8 stages)
Going forward after the Tour de Ski, there will probably be some changes in the rules for the WhoWins predictions based on comments from the readers. Here is one suggestion for a new set of rules:
- Instead of doubling the number of points for a correct predicted position, there will be a bonus of 50 points if you have number 1 correct, 30 points for number 2 and 20 points for number 3.
- Skiers which are not among the favourites will give extra points. It looks like the best way to do it is that all skiers are grouped in two groups – the favourites and the non-favourites. For all non-favourites, you get double points for your predictions. When setting up your predictions, you can see graphically which skiers are in the favourite-group and which are outside. This will probably be based on FIS-points / previous results, and only change a few times within each season. Also, there will not be different groups for sprint/distance (difficult to set up technically). I can imagine having around 25-30 skiers in the favourite group?
- If you do not set up predictions for a race, your predictions go on to the next race unaltered.
- If the rules are changed this way, it turn the WhoWins predictions a bit more into a type of “Fantasy World Cup”, but it looks like this is what people want based on the comments I have gotten.
Thanks to all for participating in the WhoWins predictions. It has been great fun so far with a few hundred different people participating – and I am sure it will be in the future as well. Please post comments on the format of the WhoWins predictions below. I don’t want to make these changes if you aren’t happy with them!