Splits analysis: 15 km Classic Davos Men

Posted by Jan Kocbach, 11 Dec 2010@14:54

Alexey Poltoranin finished fast – and took the victory ahead of Alexander Legkov in the 15 km classic race in Davos today. Maxim Vylegzahnin was in the lead at the last split, but lost 22 seconds(!) to the best time the last 3.4 kilometers of the course. Sami Jauhojärvi had the best finish of all –  passing Jean Marc Gaillard, Maxim Vylegzahnin and Martin Johnsrud Sundby on the last 3.4 km.

This was the first World Cup victory of Alexey Poltoranin – his previous top spot was a 9th place! In the above Splitsbrowser-screenshot (see also splitsbrowser from the race: Play with the results yourself) a flat line on a split means that an athlete is the fastest on a split. The steeper the line goes, the more an athlete looses on that split. Split 1 is at 1.6 km, split 2 at 5.0 km, split 3 at 7.0 km, split 4 at 10 km, split 5 at 11.6 km and finish at 15.0 km. Taking a look at the race profile, the first (and third, fifth) split is only uphill, whereas the second (and fourth, sixth) split is mostly flat/downhill.

Race profile from FIS-ski.com

Looking at the race splits as a function of race profile, you can observe that

  • In the uphills, Daniel Rickardsson was fastest the first time (from start to 1.6 km) – he later lost it completely (see curve here). The best time of the top 5 finisher was set by Dario Cologna.
  • The second time up the hills (from 5.0 to 7.0 km) Maxim Vylegzahnin was fastest – he also lost a lot of time at the end of the race (see curves above). It is unclear if this is due to a fall or something else. Jean Marc Gaillard was the second fastest up the hill this second time – he also lost a lot of time at the last split from 11.6 km to 15 km.
  • The third time up the hills (from 10.0 to 11.6 km) Evgeniy Belov was fastest – as the other ones mentioned above, he lost a lot of time at the last split from 11.6 km to 15 km. Note that Maxim Vylegzahnin was second fastest also this time up the hill, only one second behind Belov.

You don’t usually see these kind of differences as the athletes usually know their bodies too well to race too fast up the hills – but the courses in Davos are at altitude of around 1600 meters, and this is probably the reason for the big time losses in the end of the race by athletes who have burned a lot of energy in the uphills!

Looking at the rest of the splits, Alexander Legkov was fastest at the second split from 1.6 km to 5.0 km (mostly flat/downhill) taking the lead in the race. Split 4 from 7 km to 10 km was won by Petr Sedov ahead of Sami Jauhojärvi – while Jauhojärvi was fastest in the last split.

Links

  • Splitsbrowser from the race: Play with the results yourself
  • Race predictions available here
  • All news from the race available at WorldofXC.com
  • See also the “Cross Country Skiing News” iPhone App
    • Comparing to the predictions

    Comparing the results to the 106 predictions over at WhoWins.WorldofXC.com, the victory of Alexey Poltoranin was very unexpected – not tipped by a single of the predicters! Most popular on the Top 5 lists ahead of the race was Dario Cologna (on 101 of the Top 5 lists) – who finished 4th in the race. Second most popular was Lukas Bauer who finished 3th in the race. Daniel Rickardsson followed next – he unfortunately got big problems today after setting the best start time. Next on the Top 5 lists was Legkov – who finished 2nd and fulfilled the predictions. Sami Jauhojärvi (finishing 4th) was the second big surprise today beside Alexey Poltoranin, being on only 7 of the top 5 lists! Results from the predictions are available here.


    Split 1
    1. 04:57 Daniel RICKARDSSON SWE
    2. 04:58 +00:02 Dario COLOGNA SUI
    3. 05:00 +00:04 Marcus HELLNER SWE
    4. 05:02 +00:05 Alexander LEGKOV RUS
    5. 05:03 +00:07 Lukas BAUER CZE
    6. 05:05 +00:08 Eldar ROENNING NOR
    7. 05:06 +00:09 Giovanni GULLO ITA
    8. 05:06 +00:10 Bastien POIRRIER FRA
    9. 05:07 +00:10 Martin JOHNSRUD SUNDBY NOR
    10. 05:07 +00:11 Alexey POLTARANIN KAZ
    11. 05:08 +00:11 Evgeniy BELOV RUS
    14. 05:08 +00:11 Sami JAUHOJAERVI FIN
    Split 2
    1. 08:02 Alexander LEGKOV RUS
    2. 08:06 +00:05 Petter NORTHUG NOR
    3. 08:07 +00:06 Martin JOHNSRUD SUNDBY NOR
    4. 08:08 +00:06 Alexey POLTARANIN KAZ
    5. 08:09 +00:07 Dario COLOGNA SUI
    6. 08:10 +00:08 Lukas BAUER CZE
    7. 08:11 +00:09 Devon KERSHAW CAN
    8. 08:12 +00:10 Maxim VYLEGZHANIN RUS
    9. 08:13 +00:12 Eldar ROENNING NOR
    10. 08:13 +00:12 Jean Marc GAILLARD FRA
    11. 08:15 +00:14 Giorgio DI CENTA ITA
    17. 08:18 +00:16 Sami JAUHOJAERVI FIN
    Split 3
    1. 06:22 Maxim VYLEGZHANIN RUS
    2. 06:26 +00:04 Jean Marc GAILLARD FRA
    3. 06:27 +00:05 Alexey POLTARANIN KAZ
    4. 06:28 +00:06 Evgeniy BELOV RUS
    5. 06:30 +00:08 Eldar ROENNING NOR
    6. 06:31 +00:09 Lukas BAUER CZE
    7. 06:31 +00:09 Sami JAUHOJAERVI FIN
    8. 06:32 +00:11 Devon KERSHAW CAN
    9. 06:32 +00:11 Martin JOHNSRUD SUNDBY NOR
    10. 06:33 +00:12 Kris FREEMAN USA
    11. 06:34 +00:12 Alexander BESSMERTNYKH RUS
    13. 06:34 +00:13 Alexander LEGKOV RUS
    14. 06:35 +00:13 Dario COLOGNA SUI
    Split 4
    1. 06:46 Petr SEDOV RUS
    2. 06:49 +00:03 Sami JAUHOJAERVI FIN
    3. 06:51 +00:06 Jean Marc GAILLARD FRA
    4. 06:55 +00:09 Maxim VYLEGZHANIN RUS
    5. 06:55 +00:10 Martin BAJCICAK SVK
    6. 06:56 +00:10 Alexander LEGKOV RUS
    7. 06:56 +00:10 Matti HEIKKINEN FIN
    8. 06:56 +00:11 Alexey POLTARANIN KAZ
    9. 06:56 +00:11 Devon KERSHAW CAN
    10. 06:57 +00:11 Dario COLOGNA SUI
    11. 06:57 +00:11 Lukas BAUER CZE
    12. 06:58 +00:12 Martin JOHNSRUD SUNDBY NOR
    Split 5
    1. 05:07 Evgeniy BELOV RUS
    2. 05:08 +00:01 Maxim VYLEGZHANIN RUS
    3. 05:10 +00:03 Martin JOHNSRUD SUNDBY NOR
    4. 05:11 +00:05 Eldar ROENNING NOR
    5. 05:12 +00:05 Lukas BAUER CZE
    6. 05:12 +00:05 Alexey POLTARANIN KAZ
    7. 05:13 +00:06 Alexander BESSMERTNYKH RUS
    8. 05:14 +00:07 Sami JAUHOJAERVI FIN
    9. 05:15 +00:08 Nikolay CHEBOTKO KAZ
    10. 05:16 +00:09 Alexander LEGKOV RUS
    11. 05:17 +00:10 Dario COLOGNA SUI
    Split 6
    1. 08:10 Sami JAUHOJAERVI FIN
    2. 08:13 +00:03 Devon KERSHAW CAN
    3. 08:13 +00:03 Matti HEIKKINEN FIN
    4. 08:13 +00:03 Dario COLOGNA SUI
    5. 08:13 +00:03 Alexey POLTARANIN KAZ
    6. 08:15 +00:06 Lukas BAUER CZE
    7. 08:15 +00:06 Alexander LEGKOV RUS
    8. 08:16 +00:06 Petr SEDOV RUS
    9. 08:17 +00:07 Eldar ROENNING NOR
    10. 08:19 +00:09 Petter NORTHUG NOR
    11. 08:19 +00:09 Martin JOHNSRUD SUNDBY NOR
    Overall (unofficial results from live timing)
    1. 40:04 Alexey POLTARANIN KAZ
    2. 40:04 +00:01 Alexander LEGKOV RUS
    3. 40:08 +00:04 Lukas BAUER CZE
    4. 40:08 +00:04 Dario COLOGNA SUI
    5. 40:09 +00:06 Sami JAUHOJAERVI FIN
    6. 40:13 +00:10 Martin JOHNSRUD SUNDBY NOR
    7. 40:17 +00:14 Maxim VYLEGZHANIN RUS
    8. 40:20 +00:16 Eldar ROENNING NOR
    9. 40:24 +00:21 Devon KERSHAW CAN
    10. 40:25 +00:22 Jean Marc GAILLARD FRA
    11. 40:31 +00:28 Evgeniy BELOV RUS
    12. 40:33 +00:29 Matti HEIKKINEN FIN
    13. 40:42 +00:39 Petter NORTHUG NOR
    14. 40:44 +00:41 Petr SEDOV RUS
    15. 40:49 +00:46 Alexander BESSMERTNYKH RUS
    16. 40:58 +00:55 Maurice MANIFICAT FRA
    17. 41:03 +00:59 Martin JAKS CZE
    18. 41:03 +01:00 Ville NOUSIAINEN FIN
    19. 41:08 +01:04 Nikolay CHEBOTKO KAZ
    20. 41:14 +01:11 Martin BAJCICAK SVK
    21. 41:15 +01:11 Daniel RICKARDSSON SWE
    22. 41:19 +01:15 Giorgio DI CENTA ITA
    23. 41:23 +01:20 Kris FREEMAN USA
    24. 41:24 +01:20 Sjur ROETHE NOR
    25. 41:28 +01:24 Odd-Bjoern HJELMESET NOR
    26. 41:39 +01:35 Thomas MORIGGL ITA
    27. 41:41 +01:38 Anders SOEDERGREN SWE
    28. 41:42 +01:38 Andrus VEERPALU EST
    29. 41:45 +01:41 Ivan BATORY SVK
    30. 41:45 +01:41 Remo FISCHER SUI
    31. 41:46 +01:42 George GREY CAN
    32. 41:47 +01:43 Marcus HELLNER SWE
    33. 41:47 +01:43 Simen OESTENSEN NOR
    34. 41:56 +01:52 Valerio CHECCHI ITA
    35. 42:01 +01:57 Tom REICHELT GER

    5 Comments

    385

    Pingback by WorldofXC Blog » Race Predictions Davos: Surprises today!

    December 11, 2010 @ 15:54

    [...] Lukas Bauer who finished 3th in the race. Daniel Rickardsson followed next – he unfortunately got big problems today after setting the best start time. Next on the Top 5 lists was Legkov – who finished 2nd and fulfilled the predictions. Sami [...]

    388

    Comment by Mountainmums

    December 11, 2010 @ 17:12

    The fact that the fastest going uphill seem to be slower going downhill can also be explained by waxing choices.
    If you choose to givre priority to grip, you’ll be faster going uphill but that will be at the cost of glide and downhill times.

    389

    Comment by admin

    December 11, 2010 @ 17:15

    @Maintainmums: Thanks for the comment. And yes, that’s right, it might be waxing choices. But most of these lost a lot only at the last split. But again, that could of course be waxing:) Also, I think you wouldn’t loose that much downhill just due to a waxing choice?

    For Rickardsson’s case at least we can be sure that it was not the waxing but a too fast start.

    397

    Comment by danil

    December 11, 2010 @ 23:26

    it would be interesting to calculate the total time up, and find the best runner in the mountain!

    398

    Comment by admin

    December 11, 2010 @ 23:33

    @Danil: I’ve thought about it, but haven’t gotten so far yet. The problem is also that you won’t get all the uphill – but still it would be interesting. The best would have been to have GPS-data – then one could make a lot of interesting analysis here…

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