The Final Climb up Alpe Cermis is the toughest race in the Cross Country Skiing World Cup – this is the stage where legends are made and the Tour de Ski is decided. Norwegian skier Therese Johaug is the Queen of the Alpe Cermis with three stage wins – winning with nearly one minute margin two times in a row. In the men’s class Lukas Bauer  (CZE) has impressed several times – so has Alexander Legkov (RUS), Marcus Hellner (SWE) and Ivan Babikov (CAN).

In addition to Johaug’s two crushing stage wins in 2011 and 2012, the most impressive race up Alpe Cermis was Bauer in the legendary 2010 edition. The Czech started the stage 10 seconds behind Petter Northug (NOR) and crushed Northug up the Final Climb – winning the overall Tour de Ski with 1:16 down to Northug.  Instead of enjoying his big lead and certain victory, he pushed all the way to the finish line, and also won the Alpe Cermis stage!

• Set up predictions for Alpe Cermis, before the women’s start Sunday January 6th 11:45 CET (the men start at 14:50 CET). Predictions are for individual times.
• In the Val di Fiemme mass start predictions, Rybka was strongest ahead of The Maestro Gambler (results here) – in the overall dagger has taken over the lead (results). With 7 within 100 points nothing is decided before the final stage.

The Alpe Cermis has a height difference of 425 meters – and the total climb on the stage is 495 meters. The women and men race the same course (9 km skating). Before the climb starts, there is a 5.5 km “warm-up” down the valley.

2013 preview: Men

Northug has an extreme ability to get the maximum out when it is needed – so don’t write off Northug until the winner has crossed the finish line

With the tough race profile of Alpe Cermis, motivation and position in the field relative to other skiers is often just as important as pure strength. The two first in the overall Tour standings, Dario Cologna (SUI) and Alexander Legkov (+6.5 seconds) , have both shown that they can be among the very fastest up the Alpe Cermis if it is necessary in order to fight for the victory.  Legkov has been the strongest so far, but a Cologna under pressure may very well challenge Legkov.

Northug: Steady improvement year by year

Third in the overall, Petter Northug (at + 11.5 seconds), has improved steadily year by year in Alpe Cermis – the closest being 39 seconds behind the stage winner in 2011. On paper the Norwegian is probably still some seconds slower than the very best – but Northug has an extreme ability to get the maximum out when it is needed – so don’t write off Northug until the winner has crossed the finish line. Fourth in the overall Maxim Vylegzhanin (RUS, + 16.3 seconds) has a 9th place from 2009 as his best result up Alpe Cermis – 32 seconds behind the stage winner. The Alpe Cermis has not been Vylegzhanin’s race so far – but with the shape the Russian has shown in this Tour, he should not be written off.

• Overall standings in the Tour de Ski – men

Stage win: Look out for Babikov and Hellner

Lukas Bauer (2 wins), Alexander Legkov (1 win, once  5 seconds behind), Ivan Babikov (1 win, once 5 seconds behind) and Marcus Hellner (twice 2 seconds behind) are the four skiers on the start in this year’s Tour who have at least two top races up Alpe Cermis (see the table below or the full table for all skiers here). In addition there are several other 2013 starters who have proved that they are excellent climbers by being within 10-15 seconds of the winner. This includes Dario Cologna, Jean Marc Gaillard (FRA), Giorgio Di Centa (ITA), Tom Reichelt (GER), Matti Heikkinen (FIN)  and Roland Clara (ITA). These will probably be the ones fighting for the stage win along with Cologna, Legkov and Babikov. Legkov, Hellner, Cologna, Heikkinen and Babikov have showed the best shape in this Tour.

2013 preview: Women

Johaug caught nearly 2 minutes on Kowalczyk in 2011, but Kowalczyk did not push all the way to the finish in that race

With her 2 minute lead in the overall standings, Justyna Kowalczyk (POL) is the biggest favourite for the overall Tour de Ski victory. Based on previous results (see the table below or the full table for all skiers here), Johaug should be able to catch up 40-60 seconds on Kowalczyk if they both have a normal day. Johaug caught nearly 2 minutes on Kowalczyk in 2011, but Kowalczyk did not push all the way to the finish in that race. Johaug’s only chance for overall victory seems to be a really bad day for Kowalczyk. Actually the fight for second place between Johaug and Kristin Størmer Steira (NOR) might be just as interesting with Steira starting only 10 seconds behind Johaug.

• Overall standings in the Tour de Ski – women

Johaug for the stage win?

Therese Johaug is the big favourite for the stage win after crushing the field twice in a row.  The other big names for the stage win are Kristin Størmer Steira (NOR) who won the stage in 2010 and has three races within 10 seconds of the stage winner and Valentina Shevchenko (UKR) who took the Alpe Cermis stage win in 2008.  Justyna Kowalczyk has seldom been under pressure up Alpe Cermis – but has shown that she has the ability to race very well when it is needed – finishing 4th only 25 seconds down on Steira in 2010.  The secret tip for a top 3 on this stage is the young Norwegian Heidi Weng – an excellent climber who is in Johaug class on her best days. Although Charlotte Kalla has not performed well in the Final Climb earlier, she could very well fight for a top three on the stage if everything goes her way. Also don’t forget Katrin Zeller and Krista Lähteenmäki – both have shown excellent shape in the latest races, and have previously proved that they are strong climbers. Note that the Norwegian Marthe Kristoffersen (NOR) – fourth and third the two last years – has quit the Tour.

Men – starters Tour de Ski 2012/2013

Name		2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007	Best	Average
BAUER Lukas		+0:52.8 31:31.1 (8)	+0:00.0 30:28.3 (1)	+0:00.0 33:43.4 (1)	+0:15.2 34:06.4 (5)	+0:46.0 33:45.1 (7)		+0:00.0	+0:22.8
BABIKOV Ivan		+1:00.2 31:38.4 (11)	+0:47.1 31:15.4 (6)	+0:05.2 33:48.7 (4)	+0:00.0 33:51.2 (1)			+0:00.0	+0:28.1
LEGKOV Alexander		+0:00.0 30:38.2 (1)			+1:12.7 35:03.9 (16)	+1:20.1 34:19.2 (18)	+0:04.9 32:12.7 (2)	+0:00.0	+0:39.4
REICHELT Tom			+1:03.2 31:31.5 (10)	+1:47.5 35:30.9 (25)	+0:01.5 33:52.7 (2)		+2:20.8 34:28.6 (37)	+0:01.5	+1:18.2
HELLNER Marcus		+0:01.7 30:39.9 (3)	+1:57.4 32:25.7 (23)	+0:02.3 33:45.8 (2)		+1:16.3 34:15.3 (14)	+2:01.5 34:09.3 (31)	+0:01.7	+1:03.8
GAILLARD Jean Marc			+1:01.4 31:29.7 (9)	+0:02.5 33:45.9 (3)	+0:21.7 34:12.9 (6)		+1:04.3 33:12.1 (10)	+0:02.5	+0:37.4
DI CENTA Giorgio		+0:57.7 31:35.9 (9)	+1:16.0 31:44.3 (14)	+0:39.1 34:22.6 (8)	+0:03.2 33:54.4 (3)	+0:35.4 33:34.4 (4)	+0:41.4 32:49.2 (3)	+0:03.2	+0:42.1
COLOGNA Dario		+1:05.8 31:44.1 (16)	+1:29.8 31:58.1 (18)	+0:09.0 33:52.4 (5)	+1:20.8 35:12.0 (22)	+1:28.1 34:27.2 (21)		+0:09.0	+1:06.7
HEIKKINEN Matti		+0:34.0 31:12.3 (6)		+0:56.5 34:39.9 (12)	+0:12.0 34:03.2 (4)			+0:12.0	+0:34.1
CLARA Roland		+0:16.2 30:54.4 (4)	+0:32.4 31:00.7 (2)	+0:45.5 34:28.9 (10)	+0:31.3 34:22.6 (8)			+0:16.2	+0:31.3
MORIGGL Thomas		+0:30.7 31:08.9 (5)	+0:58.0 31:26.3 (8)	+0:51.5 34:35.0 (11)				+0:30.7	+0:46.7
VYLEGZHANIN Maxim		+1:16.3 31:54.5 (20)			+0:32.6 34:23.8 (9)	+1:52.6 34:51.6 (30)		+0:32.6	+1:13.8
LIVERS Toni					+0:32.8 34:24.1 (10)		+1:54.1 34:01.9 (29)	+0:32.8	+1:13.5
PERL Curdin		+1:45.0 32:23.2 (31)	+0:33.8 31:02.1 (3)	+1:17.4 35:00.8 (13)	+1:35.8 35:27.1 (30)			+0:33.7	+1:18.0
NORTHUG Petter jr.		+1:28.5 32:06.7 (24)	+0:39.0 31:07.3 (5)	+1:24.6 35:08.1 (16)	+0:56.3 34:47.6 (13)	+1:37.1 34:36.2 (25)	+1:59.9 34:07.7 (30)	+0:39.0	+1:20.9
GOERING Franz						+0:39.5 33:38.5 (5)	+1:33.8 33:41.6 (19)	+0:39.5	+1:06.6
MAGAL Jiri				+0:43.4 34:26.8 (9)	+0:48.1 34:39.3 (11)		+1:37.6 33:45.4 (21)	+0:43.4	+1:03.0
FREEMAN Kris		+1:45.7 32:23.9 (32)	+0:53.9 31:22.2 (7)					+0:53.9	+1:19.8
DYRHAUG Niklas		+0:58.8 31:37.0 (10)						+0:58.7	+0:58.7
JAKS Martin		+1:00.3 31:38.5 (12)	+1:23.2 31:51.5 (16)			+1:09.5 34:08.6 (12)		+1:00.2	+1:11.0
HOFER David		+1:02.7 31:40.9 (13)			+1:25.3 35:16.5 (25)			+1:02.7	+1:14.0
ANGERER Tobias		+1:20.8 31:59.1 (23)				+1:04.0 34:03.1 (10)	+1:31.7 33:39.5 (18)	+1:04.0	+1:18.8
CHERNOUSOV Ilia		+1:04.2 31:42.4 (15)		+2:43.3 36:26.7 (34)		+3:22.8 36:21.8 (51)	+1:48.3 33:56.1 (26)	+1:04.2	+2:14.6
DUVILLARD Robin		+1:34.8 32:13.0 (26)	+1:04.5 31:32.8 (11)	+1:35.1 35:18.6 (18)				+1:04.5	+1:24.8
CHECCHI Valerio				+1:32.2 35:15.7 (17)	+2:06.3 35:57.5 (35)	+1:06.7 34:05.7 (11)		+1:06.7	+1:35.0
SEMENOV Michail		+1:07.8 31:46.0 (17)						+1:07.7	+1:07.7
KERSHAW Devon		+1:08.5 31:46.8 (18)	+1:09.5 31:37.8 (12)	+1:41.7 35:25.1 (21)	+1:20.6 35:11.8 (21)			+1:08.5	+1:20.0
VELICHKO Yevgeniy		+1:09.0 31:47.2 (19)		+1:45.1 35:28.5 (23)	+1:33.2 35:24.4 (29)			+1:09.0	+1:29.0
GJERDALEN Tord Asle			+1:10.2 31:38.5 (13)	+1:40.8 35:24.2 (20)	+1:23.6 35:14.8 (24)	+1:50.2 34:49.2 (28)		+1:10.2	+1:31.1
FISCHER Remo			+1:17.0 31:45.3 (15)					+1:17.0	+1:17.0
PASINI Fabio		+1:44.5 32:22.7 (30)		+2:41.3 36:24.7 (33)	+1:17.6 35:08.8 (19)			+1:17.6	+1:54.4
BESSMERTNYKH Alexander		+1:17.8 31:56.0 (22)	+2:25.2 32:53.5 (30)					+1:17.7	+1:51.5
FILBRICH Jens		+1:36.5 32:14.8 (27)	+2:12.9 32:41.2 (27)	+1:39.4 35:22.8 (19)	+1:27.6 35:18.8 (26)	+1:36.0 34:35.0 (24)	+1:28.1 33:35.9 (16)	+1:27.6	+1:40.1
RICKARDSSON Daniel			+1:30.1 31:58.4 (19)	+1:41.7 35:25.1 (21)	+2:38.8 36:30.0 (40)	+3:41.4 36:40.4 (54)		+1:30.1	+2:23.0
JAPAROV Dmitriy		+1:34.7 32:12.9 (25)	+2:24.1 32:52.4 (29)					+1:34.7	+1:59.4
BING Thomas		+1:40.8 32:19.0 (29)						+1:40.7	+1:40.7
DOLIDOVICH Sergei		+1:46.7 32:24.9 (34)					+1:40.9 33:48.7 (23)	+1:40.9	+1:43.8
HARVEY Alex		+2:14.4 32:52.6 (40)	+1:41.7 32:10.0 (20)	+2:34.1 36:17.5 (31)				+1:41.7	+2:10.0
TEICHMANN Axel		+2:56.2 33:34.4 (48)		+1:46.0 35:29.4 (24)	+1:49.5 35:40.7 (33)	+1:41.9 34:40.9 (27)		+1:41.9	+2:03.3
REHEMAA Aivar		+2:53.8 33:32.0 (47)			+1:48.0 35:39.2 (32)			+1:47.9	+2:20.8
OESTENSEN Simen				+2:13.7 35:57.1 (29)		+3:40.2 36:39.2 (53)	+2:06.5 34:14.3 (33)	+2:06.5	+2:40.1
LASUTKIN Alexander		+2:07.4 32:45.6 (36)						+2:07.3	+2:07.3
TURYSHEV Sergey		+2:08.8 32:47.0 (38)						+2:08.7	+2:08.7
CHEBOTKO Nikolay		+3:18.7 33:56.9 (52)		+3:07.6 36:51.0 (36)	+2:54.0 36:45.2 (42)	+2:13.2 35:12.2 (38)		+2:13.1	+2:53.3
JOENSSON Emil		+2:15.3 32:53.5 (41)						+2:15.2	+2:15.2
LEHTONEN Lari		+2:19.7 32:57.9 (43)						+2:19.7	+2:19.7
SCOLA Fulvio							+2:21.2 34:29.0 (38)	+2:21.2	+2:21.2
RAZYM Ales					+2:24.0 36:15.2 (37)			+2:23.9	+2:23.9
KUEHNE Andy		+2:26.0 33:04.2 (44)						+2:26.0	+2:26.0
AKHMADIYEV Yerdos		+2:33.3 33:11.5 (45)						+2:33.2	+2:33.2
MUSGRAVE Andrew		+2:41.1 33:19.3 (46)						+2:41.0	+2:41.0
MIRANDA Cyril					+2:48.2 36:39.4 (41)			+2:48.2	+2:48.2
EINARSSON Snorri			+2:57.6 33:25.9 (32)					+2:57.6	+2:57.6
SHVIDKIY Oleksiy		+3:08.2 33:46.4 (50)						+3:08.2	+3:08.2
KARP Algo		+3:13.3 33:51.5 (51)			+3:13.6 37:04.8 (45)			+3:13.2	+3:13.4
KRECZMER Maciej			+3:40.7 34:09.0 (34)					+3:40.7	+3:40.7
NOECKLER Dietmar		+4:22.2 35:00.4 (54)						+4:22.2	+4:22.2
MATVIYENKO Gennadiy		+4:35.5 35:13.7 (55)						+4:35.4	+4:35.4
STOCKINGER Martin					+4:48.1 38:39.3 (51)			+4:48.1	+4:48.1
DARRAGON Roddy					+5:37.8 39:29.0 (52)			+5:37.7	+5:37.7

Women – starters Tour de Ski 2012/2013

Name		2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007	Best	Average
JOHAUG Therese		+0:00.0 34:17.7 (1)	+0:00.0 33:14.4 (1)		+0:00.0 35:07.7 (1)	+1:16.4 35:22.7 (4)		+0:00.0	+0:19.1
SHEVCHENKO Valentina		+1:13.9 35:31.6 (5)	+2:06.8 35:21.2 (5)	+2:24.2 38:14.0 (30)	+0:44.3 35:52.0 (3)	+0:00.0 34:06.2 (1)	+0:05.4 34:29.9 (3)	+0:00.0	+1:05.7
STEIRA Kristin Stoermer				+0:00.0 35:49.8 (1)	+0:08.7 35:16.4 (2)	+0:55.3 35:01.5 (2)	+0:01.4 34:25.9 (2)	+0:00.0	+0:16.3
ROPONEN Riitta-Liisa		+1:50.9 36:08.6 (9)	+2:49.2 36:03.6 (13)	+0:03.0 35:52.8 (2)	+1:07.9 36:15.6 (7)	+1:29.1 35:35.3 (8)		+0:03.0	+1:28.0
KOWALCZYK Justyna		+0:51.3 35:09.0 (2)	+1:59.3 35:13.7 (4)	+0:25.0 36:14.8 (4)	+0:47.1 35:54.8 (4)	+2:12.1 36:18.3 (18)	+1:08.5 35:33.0 (13)	+0:25.0	+1:13.8
SAARINEN Aino- Kaisa		+2:11.4 36:29.1 (13)	+3:44.6 36:59.0 (21)	+0:55.6 36:45.5 (7)	+1:54.7 37:02.4 (14)	+2:56.7 37:02.9 (25)		+0:55.6	+2:20.6
HAAG Anna					+0:58.4 36:06.1 (6)			+0:58.4	+0:58.4
BOEHLER Stefanie					+1:10.8 36:18.5 (8)	+1:17.3 35:23.5 (5)	+1:16.4 35:40.9 (15)	+1:10.8	+1:14.8
KRISTOFFERSEN Marthe		+1:10.8 35:28.5 (4)	+1:53.9 35:08.3 (3)	+1:14.5 37:04.3 (11)				+1:10.8	+1:26.4
ZELLER Katrin		+1:19.6 35:37.3 (6)	+2:20.8 35:35.2 (7)	+1:17.0 37:06.9 (13)	+2:32.8 37:40.5 (24)	+1:24.9 35:31.2 (6)		+1:17.0	+1:47.0
LAHTEENMAKI Krista		+1:25.5 35:43.2 (7)	+2:12.7 35:27.1 (6)					+1:25.5	+1:49.0
KALLA Charlotte		+2:49.7 37:07.4 (16)	+2:47.1 36:01.5 (12)			+1:30.7 35:36.9 (9)		+1:30.7	+2:22.5
STEPHEN Elizabeth		+1:33.0 35:50.7 (8)						+1:33.0	+1:33.0
JACOBSEN Astrid Uhrenholdt		+1:54.8 36:12.5 (10)	+2:42.0 35:56.4 (10)					+1:54.8	+2:18.4
TCHEKALEVA Yulia				+2:00.8 37:50.6 (22)				+2:00.7	+2:00.7
HUGUE Coraline		+4:04.3 38:22.0 (37)		+2:07.9 37:57.7 (24)				+2:07.8	+3:06.0
AGREITER Debora		+2:10.9 36:28.6 (12)						+2:10.9	+2:10.9
LINDBORG Sara					+2:50.9 37:58.6 (25)		+2:41.5 37:06.0 (36)	+2:41.5	+2:46.2
FAIVRE PICON Anouk		+2:44.5 37:02.2 (14)						+2:44.5	+2:44.5
KOROSTELEVA Natalia						+5:00.5 39:06.7 (42)	+3:00.1 37:24.6 (38)	+3:00.0	+4:00.2
AHERVO Laura		+3:00.9 37:18.6 (17)						+3:00.9	+3:00.9
JEZERSEK Barbara		+3:02.3 37:20.0 (19)				+4:27.0 38:33.2 (39)	+4:37.7 39:02.2 (43)	+3:02.3	+4:02.3
KOLOMINA Yelena		+3:04.3 37:22.0 (21)						+3:04.3	+3:04.3
RANDALL Kikkan		+3:04.9 37:22.6 (22)	+3:53.2 37:07.6 (23)					+3:04.9	+3:29.0
DE MARTIN TOPRANIN Virginia		+3:07.0 37:24.7 (24)	+4:55.5 38:09.9 (29)					+3:07.0	+4:01.2
MEDVEDEVA Polina		+3:07.4 37:25.1 (25)						+3:07.4	+3:07.4
MATROSSOVA Marina		+3:07.8 37:25.5 (26)		+3:55.2 39:45.0 (38)				+3:07.8	+3:31.5
IKSANOVA Alija		+3:08.8 37:26.5 (27)						+3:08.8	+3:08.8
ANTSYBOR Maryna		+3:10.2 37:27.9 (28)						+3:10.2	+3:10.2
SHAIDUROVA Larisa		+3:12.7 37:30.4 (29)	+5:03.6 38:18.0 (30)					+3:12.7	+4:08.1
IVANOVA Julia		+3:16.3 37:34.0 (30)			+5:39.7 40:47.4 (36)	+4:47.2 38:53.4 (41)		+3:16.3	+4:34.4
BROOKS Holly		+3:20.4 37:38.1 (31)						+3:20.4	+3:20.4
FESSEL Nicole		+3:32.0 37:49.7 (33)					+3:47.0 38:11.5 (39)	+3:32.0	+3:39.5
NISKANEN Kerttu		+3:34.8 37:52.5 (34)						+3:34.8	+3:34.8
JEAN Aurore		+3:55.2 38:12.9 (35)	+3:37.5 36:51.9 (15)					+3:37.5	+3:46.3
OESTBERG Ingvild Flugstad		+4:33.4 38:51.1 (42)	+3:41.8 36:56.2 (18)					+3:41.7	+4:07.5
SMUTNA Katerina		+5:12.4 39:30.1 (45)			+4:18.8 39:26.5 (29)	+3:49.4 37:55.6 (34)		+3:49.3	+4:26.8
MACIUSZEK Paulina			+3:55.1 37:09.5 (24)					+3:55.0	+3:55.0
MANNIMA Tatjana					+4:28.4 39:36.1 (31)	+3:59.3 38:05.5 (37)		+3:59.2	+4:13.8
OSSIPOVA Tatyana		+4:10.0 38:27.7 (38)						+4:10.0	+4:10.0
KYLLOENEN Anne		+4:12.8 38:30.5 (39)						+4:12.8	+4:12.8
DOTSENKO Anastasia		+4:15.5 38:33.2 (40)						+4:15.5	+4:15.5
FABJAN Vesna					+5:11.4 40:19.1 (35)	+4:40.4 38:46.6 (40)	+7:01.9 41:26.4 (47)	+4:40.3	+5:37.9
YATSKAYA Oxana		+5:10.4 39:28.1 (44)						+5:10.4	+5:10.4

The second last stage in this 7th edition of Tour de Ski is a tough classic mass start race in Val di Fiemme. With 60 bonus seconds to fight for in the men’s race and 45 seconds in the women’s race, this race will be decisive for the starting order in the final race up Alpe Cermis.

Alexander Legkov probably still has nightmares about the 2012 edition of the Val di Fiemme classic mass start – the Russian lost nearly 2 minutes

This race has been the playground of Petter Northug and Dario Cologna in the men’s class the last years – while Justyna Kowalczyk has dominated the women’s class. Alexander Legkov probably still has nightmares about the 2012 edition of the Val di Fiemme classic mass start – the Russian lost nearly 2 minutes and finished in 27th place after having very slippery skis and using too much power to fight for bonus seconds early in the race (earning him meager 16 bonus seconds).

Tactics, tactics, tactics …

In this type of race, bonus seconds at the intermediate points have proven to be even more important than the stage win in some cases – the challenge is to find the right balance between fighting for bonus points at intermediate points and getting too tired to stay with the leaders all the way to the finish. Who will go for intermediate bonus seconds? Will the Norwegian team try to help Petter Northug and Therese Johaug? Will there be cooperation in the strong Russian team in the men’s class?

There are three intermediate points with bonus points for the men and two for the women during the race. Bonus seconds for intermediate points will be 15, 12, 10, 8, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 seconds for the first ten athletes. In addition the top three of the Stage will get bonus seconds (15, 10 and 5 seconds). The schemes for the bonus seconds have changed the last years – this year there are 30 less bonus seconds to be achieved in the men’s class compared to the last two year.

• Set up predictions for Tour de Ski Stage 5, Val di Fiemme, before the women’s start Saturday January 5th 12:30 CET (the men start at 13:30 CET)
• Predictions are for individual times in the mass start race – excluding any bonus seconds
• In the short classic Val di Fiemme predictions, Siegerjc performed best ahead of Jossa (results here) – in the overall Team Northug has taken the lead (results).

Men

Of the ones of the start line in 2013, the five strongest historically seen in the Val di Fiemme classic style mass start race have been Cologna, Northug and Bauer in addition to the two Canadians Harvey and Kershaw (see tables below). However, Harvey and Kershaw did not impress on the short classic Val di Fiemme stage on Friday. On the other hand, Alexey Poltaranin raced a very impressive race on the short classic Val di Fiemme stage – and so did Russian Dmitriy Japarov and Swedish Calle Halfvarsson.

Challenge for the Russian overall favourites

The Val di Fiemme classic mass start has never been the best race for the Russians Alexander Legkov and Maxim Vylegzhanin.  Vylegzhanin had his best race in 2012, finishing 18th – 23 seconds down on Rønning – but with respectable 27 bonus seconds. Legkov has never performed well in this race – his best result the last 5 years being the 23rd place in 2008. Both did also have some trouble on the short Val di Fiemme classic stage. On the other hand, except for the fight for bonus seconds, this race should not be that different from the Oberhof classic pursuit race where Vylegzhanin and Legkov impressed!

Looking back at 2012, Eldar Rønning (not starting this year) took the stage win – but Dario Cologna (placed 3rd, 31 bonus seconds more than Rønning) and Petter Northug (placed 4th, 30 bonus seconds more) were the “actual winners” of the race in terms of the overall Tour standings. Lukas Bauer only finished 10th in 2012, but with 37 bonus seconds the Czech skier still had the third best result in terms of the overall standing.

In 2011, Petter Northug dominated the race – taking home all bonus seconds (a total of 90), and also taking the stage win. Dario Cologna actually did a better race than in 2012 and took 60 bonus seconds – finishing 2nd.  The bonus second scheme was different in 2011, though, with bonus seconds only to the top three at each intermediate point.

Women

Justyna Kowalczyk has been dominant in this race the last two years. Even with Marit Bjørgen on the start list Kowalczyk has taken all 45 bonus seconds and the victory both in 2012 and 2011. Therese Johaug has shown that she can perform well in this race (2nd spot and 30 bonus seconds in 2011), but she has also had bad races like the 11th place last year – 51 seconds down on Kowalczyk with only 7 bonus seconds.

A bad day may ruin the chances for an overall Top 5 place in the Tour de Ski 2012/2013 for any of them

The same goes for Charlotte Kalla – classic races are hit or miss for the Swede who impressed everybody at the Toblach pursuit race on Thursday. As long as the tracks are hard and well groomed like on the short classic Val di Fiemme stage, this should be possible for Kalla.

Historically, neither Størmer Steira, Randall, Jacobsen, Herrmann or Kyllönen have performed well in the Val di Fiemme mass start – all loosing significant time. However, they have all shown strong classic races lately – especially Jacobsen and Kyllönen, and depending on the tactics they choose they may all be up there fighting for both bonus seconds and a Top 3 finish. A bad day may ruin the chances for an overall Top 5 place in the Tour de Ski 2012/2013 for any of them… Also look out for the Finnish Krista Lähtenemäki and Aino-Kaisa Saarinen who have gradually raced better and better in the classic races in this Tour de Ski – Lähtenemäki finishing second in the short classic Val di Fiemme stage.

Set up your predictions

Set up your predictions and see results here:

• #1: Results Tour de Ski Prologue, 3/4 km Free, Oberhof
• #2: Results Tour de Ski Stage 2, 9/15 km Pursuit Classic, Oberhof
• #3:Results Tour de Ski Stage 3, Sprint Free, Val Mustair, Tschierv
• #4: Results Tour de Ski Stage 4, 35/15 km Pursuit Free, Toblach/Cortina
• #5: Results Tour de Ski Stage 5, 3/5 km Classic, Toblach/Cortina
• #6: Tour de Ski Stage 6, 10/15 km Classic, Val di Fiemme
• #7: Tour de Ski Stage 7, Final climb (Individual times)
• Overall XC-Prediction results – Tour de Ski 2012/2013 – updated after each stage

Men starters – historical results

Name		2012 Val di Fiemme 2012-01-07 20 km C Mst	2011 Val di Fiemme 2011-01-08 20 km C Mst	2010 Val di Fiemme 2010-01-09 20 km C Mst	2009 Val di Fiemme 2009-01-03 20 km C Mst	2008 Val di Fiemme 2008-01-05 20 km C Mst
NORTHUG Petter jr.		+0:01.5 1:00:03.7 (4) Bonus 55	+0:00.0 57:17.2 (1) Bonus 90	+0:31.5 59:35.0 (2) Bonus 65	+0:06.7 55:25.9 (8)	+0:20.3 1:00:38.2 (13)
HARVEY Alex		+0:01.1 1:00:03.3 (2) Bonus 27	+0:02.9 57:20.1 (5)	+0:58.0 1:00:01.6 (13)
COLOGNA Dario		+0:01.3 1:00:03.5 (3) Bonus 56	+0:01.8 57:19.0 (2) Bonus 60	+0:33.3 59:36.8 (4) Bonus 5	+0:01.8 55:21.0 (4) Bonus 30	+2:50.0 1:03:07.8 (44)
KERSHAW Devon		+0:03.2 1:00:05.4 (6) Bonus 23	+0:02.2 57:19.4 (3) Bonus 10	+1:34.5 1:00:38.0 (22)	+2:01.3 57:20.5 (37)
BAUER Lukas		+0:10.8 1:00:13.0 (12) Bonus 37	+0:10.5 57:27.7 (13)	+0:00.0 59:03.5 (1) Bonus 60	+1:16.5 56:35.7 (25) Bonus 10	+0:07.5 1:00:25.3 (7) Bonus 45
TURYSHEV Sergey		+0:02.3 1:00:04.5 (5) Bonus 15
JAKS Martin		+0:12.2 1:00:14.4 (14)	+0:02.6 57:19.8 (4) Bonus 10			+0:43.5 1:01:01.3 (27)
TEICHMANN Axel		+2:38.9 1:02:41.1 (39)		+0:32.3 59:35.8 (3) Bonus 5	+0:00.0 55:19.2 (1) Bonus 50	+0:05.5 1:00:23.3 (5)
FILBRICH Jens		+0:11.3 1:00:13.5 (13) Bonus 6	+0:03.9 57:21.1 (7)	+0:48.0 59:51.5 (10)	+0:04.0 55:23.2 (7)	+0:25.1 1:00:43.0 (19)
CLARA Roland		+0:18.4 1:00:20.6 (15)	+0:03.7 57:20.9 (6)	+2:23.4 1:01:26.9 (32)	+0:44.6 56:03.8 (23)
DYRHAUG Niklas		+0:05.1 1:00:07.3 (7)
JAPAROV Dmitriy		+0:05.9 1:00:08.1 (9) Bonus 10	+1:52.0 59:09.2 (22)
ANGERER Tobias		+0:05.8 1:00:08.0 (8)				+0:10.1 1:00:28.0 (9)
HELLNER Marcus		+0:08.6 1:00:10.8 (11) Bonus 29	+1:53.4 59:10.6 (23)	+0:53.6 59:57.2 (11)		+1:47.0 1:02:04.8 (38)
RICKARDSSON Daniel			+0:05.1 57:22.3 (10)	+0:37.0 59:40.6 (5)	+0:22.5 55:41.7 (14)	+1:48.6 1:02:06.4 (39)
DI CENTA Giorgio		+1:35.2 1:01:37.4 (22) Bonus 15	+0:20.2 57:37.4 (17)	+1:28.5 1:00:32.0 (21)	+0:43.6 56:02.8 (21)	+0:22.1 1:00:40.0 (16) Bonus 30
GAILLARD Jean Marc			+0:05.6 57:22.8 (11) Bonus 5	+0:42.0 59:45.5 (6) Bonus 15	+0:33.1 55:52.3 (17) Bonus 20
PERL Curdin		+3:49.6 1:03:51.8 (48)	+0:04.5 57:21.7 (8) Bonus 5	+1:28.1 1:00:31.7 (19)	+1:54.8 57:14.0 (31)
PASINI Fabio		+0:19.2 1:00:21.4 (16)		+3:52.6 1:02:56.1 (40)	+1:45.9 57:05.1 (26)
VYLEGZHANIN Maxim		+0:23.0 1:00:25.2 (18) Bonus 27			+0:03.9 55:23.1 (6) Bonus 5	+1:31.1 1:01:49.0 (34)
GJERDALEN Tord Asle			+0:15.3 57:32.5 (14)	+0:54.6 59:58.2 (12)	+1:56.5 57:15.7 (34)	+0:05.1 1:00:23.0 (4) Bonus 10
DUVILLARD Robin		+0:39.0 1:00:41.2 (21)	+1:58.3 59:15.5 (25)	+4:49.8 1:03:53.3 (41)
CHERNOUSOV Ilia		+0:30.7 1:00:32.9 (20) Bonus 1		+1:28.4 1:00:31.9 (20)		+4:40.5 1:04:58.3 (56)
BESSMERTNYKH Alexander		+0:29.5 1:00:31.7 (19)	+3:27.0 1:00:44.2 (32)
REICHELT Tom			+0:07.0 57:24.2 (12)	+1:35.6 1:00:39.2 (23)	+2:00.2 57:19.4 (36)
CHEBOTKO Nikolay		+3:57.2 1:03:59.4 (49)		+1:16.5 1:00:20.1 (17)	+0:01.3 55:20.5 (3) Bonus 5	+3:13.9 1:03:31.7 (48)
MORIGGL Thomas		+1:59.8 1:02:02.0 (26)	+1:47.1 59:04.3 (20)	+2:56.4 1:01:59.9 (39)
VELICHKO Yevgeniy		+1:54.0 1:01:56.2 (24)		+1:09.5 1:00:13.0 (14)	+1:46.5 57:05.7 (28)
MIRANDA Cyril			+0:19.6 57:36.8 (16)	+2:22.1 1:01:25.6 (30)	+1:57.7 57:16.9 (35)
EINARSSON Snorri			+0:44.2 58:01.4 (18)
GOERING Franz						+0:03.1 1:00:21.0 (3) Bonus 5
LEGKOV Alexander		+1:59.9 1:02:02.1 (27) Bonus 16			+3:18.6 58:37.8 (46)	+0:36.5 1:00:54.4 (23)
FISCHER Remo			+1:56.9 59:14.1 (24)
CHECCHI Valerio				+1:15.1 1:00:18.7 (16)	+0:33.4 55:52.6 (19)	+0:09.0 1:00:26.8 (8)
BABIKOV Ivan		+2:18.5 1:02:20.7 (32)	+2:29.7 59:46.9 (27)	+1:37.6 1:00:41.2 (25) Bonus 5	+4:51.9 1:00:11.1 (47)
REHEMAA Aivar		+2:32.6 1:02:34.8 (38)			+0:13.8 55:33.0 (10)
KARP Algo		+3:48.3 1:03:50.5 (47)		+2:15.5 1:01:19.0 (29)	+0:43.2 56:02.4 (20)
OESTENSEN Simen				+1:50.7 1:00:54.2 (27)		+0:36.2 1:00:54.1 (22)
LIVERS Toni					+0:53.5 56:12.7 (24)

Women starters – historical results

Name		2012 Val di Fiemme 2012-01-07 10 km C Mst	2011 Val di Fiemme 2011-01-08 10 km C Mst	2010 Val di Fiemme 2010-01-09 10 km C Mst	2009 Val di Fiemme 2009-01-03 10 km C Mst	2008 Val di Fiemme 2008-01-05 10 km C Mst
KOWALCZYK Justyna		+0:00.0 25:49.8 (1) Bonus 45	+0:00.0 30:27.6 (1) Bonus 45	+0:15.5 34:21.9 (22) Bonus 15	+0:53.2 31:03.5 (15)	+1:10.4 33:58.5 (26)
JOHAUG Therese		+0:51.2 26:41.0 (11) Bonus 7	+0:06.3 30:33.9 (2) Bonus 30		+0:37.1 30:47.4 (9)	+0:29.4 33:17.5 (15)
KALLA Charlotte		+0:31.0 26:20.8 (3) Bonus 20	+2:16.2 32:43.8 (15)			+0:04.5 32:52.6 (2) Bonus 10
SAARINEN Aino- Kaisa		+0:33.6 26:23.4 (4) Bonus 16	+1:14.0 31:41.6 (5) Bonus 10	+0:29.4 34:35.8 (27)	+0:20.5 30:30.8 (3) Bonus 15	+0:59.2 33:47.3 (23) Bonus 10
IVANOVA Julia		+0:42.3 26:32.1 (5) Bonus 2			+1:49.3 31:59.6 (27)	+1:23.2 34:11.3 (31)
ZELLER Katrin		+0:46.5 26:36.3 (6) Bonus 9	+1:28.1 31:55.7 (8)	+0:06.0 34:12.4 (10)	+0:47.5 30:57.8 (11)	+0:05.5 32:53.6 (5) Bonus 10
KRISTOFFERSEN Marthe		+0:49.9 26:39.7 (10) Bonus 6	+1:25.1 31:52.7 (7)	+0:34.1 34:40.6 (30)	+1:28.5 31:38.8 (21)
LAHTEENMAKI Krista		+0:49.2 26:39.0 (9) Bonus 10	+2:16.8 32:44.4 (16)
MEDVEDEVA Polina		+0:48.0 26:37.8 (8)
SMUTNA Katerina		+1:12.1 27:01.9 (15)	+2:27.5 32:55.1 (18)	+0:14.1 34:20.6 (21)	+1:07.5 31:17.8 (16)	+0:20.5 33:08.6 (12)
KYLLOENEN Anne		+1:00.1 26:49.9 (13)	+2:55.2 33:22.8 (22)
ROPONEN Riitta-Liisa		+1:22.1 27:11.9 (18)	+2:03.8 32:31.4 (14)	+0:07.9 34:14.3 (16)	+1:41.2 31:51.5 (23)	+0:37.2 33:25.3 (20)
RANDALL Kikkan		+0:58.9 26:48.7 (12) Bonus 8	+3:54.8 34:22.4 (27)
JACOBSEN Astrid Uhrenholdt		+1:25.4 27:15.2 (20)	+1:53.8 32:21.4 (12)		+1:50.1 32:00.4 (29)
NISKANEN Kerttu		+1:12.5 27:02.3 (16)	+2:33.0 33:00.6 (20)
IKSANOVA Alija		+1:19.5 27:09.3 (17)
OESTBERG Ingvild Flugstad		+1:55.7 27:45.5 (32)	+1:33.3 32:00.9 (10)
KOLOMINA Yelena		+1:24.0 27:13.8 (19)
HAAG Anna			+1:59.3 32:26.9 (13)		+0:36.5 30:46.8 (8)
SHAIDUROVA Larisa		+1:33.1 27:22.9 (22)	+5:59.2 36:26.8 (36)
AHERVO Laura		+1:38.1 27:27.9 (23)
FESSEL Nicole		+1:38.9 27:28.7 (24)
DE MARTIN TOPRANIN Virginia		+1:40.2 27:30.0 (25)	+4:01.7 34:29.3 (30)
SHEVCHENKO Valentina		+1:54.2 27:44.0 (30)	+3:26.3 33:53.9 (24)	+0:20.7 34:27.2 (24)	+0:49.3 30:59.6 (13)	+0:32.9 33:21.0 (17)
STEIRA Kristin Stoermer		+2:01.6 27:51.4 (38)		+0:09.4 34:15.8 (18) Bonus 5	+0:39.0 30:49.3 (10)	+0:13.0 33:01.1 (9)
BOEHLER Stefanie					+0:35.6 30:45.9 (7)	+1:30.5 34:18.7 (34)
TCHEKALEVA Yulia				+0:10.1 34:16.6 (20)
LINDBORG Sara					+1:25.0 31:35.3 (19)
KOROSTELEVA Natalia						+0:34.5 33:22.6 (18)

The short classic style race in Toblach was a new addition to the Tour de Ski last year. This year it has been put after the long pursuit race, and will therefore become more important for the overall standings – every second gained here will be important for the Final Climb! The race length is around 30% longer than a typical prologue – 3.3 km for the women and 5 km for the men.

• Set up predictions for Tour de Ski Stage 5, Toblach, before the first start at Friday January 4th 11:15 CET
• Results Stage 4 predictions. Congratulations to fjodd who won with 811 points – 4 points ahead of Cupcake. In the overall Johan has taken the lead ahead of Team Northug – but the lead is only 15 points.
• Analysis Tour de Ski Queen stage and Women’s 15 km pursuit  in Toblach – with interactive illustrations

Even if the race is short, this should not be dismissed as an unimportant stage in the Tour.  With a tough course (see the men’s race profile above – the women further down) and 15/10/5 bonus seconds to the three first skiers, a skier with a bad day can easily loose up to 30 seconds like Northug did last year.

The course is of the “classic” type – with “long, beautiful inviting uphill slopes” as Anna Haag put it last year.  When comparing to other races in the World Cup, the Falun prologue of 3.3 km / 2.5 km in classic style is the closest to compare with. Results from the Falun prologue and the Toblach classic races the two last years (longer in 2010) are included below.

Men: Important bonus seconds!

Northug has previously shown that he can master this type of race very well

Last year Alexander Legkov took a somewhat surprising victory in the 5 km classic race in Toblach – with Eldar Rønning (not starting this year) in second and Dario Cologna in third only 2 seconds down. Petter Northug had a bad day, and finished on a 12th place – 14 seconds down from Legkov – 29 seconds when counting in the bonus seconds. However, Northug has previously shown that he can master this type of race very well – with 2nd and 4th places in the somewhat shorter classic Falun Prologue. Vylegzhanin can be very strong in these short classic races – finishing only 11th last year, but with two 3rd places in the Falun Prologue.

Another strong skier in this type of race is Lukas Bauer (4th last year) – can he wake up for real on this short classic race? Daniel Rickardsson could also do well here, although the race might be just a little bit short for the Swede.

Skiers often struggling in this kind of race include Marcus Hellner and Alex Harvey – they need to work hard to limit their losses if they want to fight for the Top 5 in the overall…

Women: Another Kowalczyk show?

The only one beating Kowalczyk in these short classic races the last years has been Marit Bjørgen

While Justyna Kowalczyk had big trouble in the Toblach 15 km skating race, the Polish superwomen looks unbeatable in classic technique these days – at least when Marit Bjørgen is not on the start line. The only one beating Kowalczyk in these short classic races the last years has been Marit Bjørgen – who is not on the start in this year’s Tour. In last year’s 3 km classic race, Bjørgen and Kowalczyk crushed the field – Bjørgen winning 4 seconds ahead of Kowalczyk with Astrid Uhrenholdt Jacobsen in third 15 seconds down (25 seconds including the bonus seconds). The German’s Nicole Fessel and Stefanie Böhler finished 4th and 5th with Therese Johaug in 6th, 21 seconds down. This will be a perfect opportunity for Kowalczyk to gain some valuable seconds on Johaug and the rest of the field. But also Uhrenholdt Jacobsen can use this excellent opportunity to get closer to the Top 4.

Randall and Kyllönen?

Kristin Størmer Steira, Kikkan Randall, Denise Herrmann and Anne Kyllönen have all struggled in these short classic races before – but they have all shown exceptional good shape in classic lately, and it is to expected that a least one or two of them will shine on the short Toblach classic race – maybe all four? My bet is on  Randall and Kyllönen.

The short classic races are also not Charlotte Kalla’s favourite, but she has earlier shown that she can do well if she has good skis and good shape – so she might even mix in on the fight for bonus seconds. There is no reason to doubt that Kalla is in top shape!

Race profile Women:

Men starters – historical results

Name		2012 Toblach 2012-01-03 5 km C	2011 Falun 2011-03-18 3.3 km C	2010 Falun 2010-03-19 3.3 km C Prologue	2010 Cortina – Toblach 2010-01-07 10 km C
LEGKOV Alexander		+0:00.0 13:49.5 (1)	+0:18.3 11:10.1 (14)
CHERNOUSOV Ilia		+0:04.0 13:53.5 (5)	+0:00.0 10:51.8 (1)	+0:35.6 10:30.9 (38)	+1:02.0 24:16.5 (23)
COLOGNA Dario		+0:02.0 13:51.5 (3)	+0:22.0 11:13.8 (16)	+0:00.0 9:55.3 (1)	+0:35.5 23:50.0 (8)
NORTHUG Petter jr.		+0:13.8 14:03.3 (12)	+0:02.9 10:54.7 (2)	+0:10.0 10:05.3 (4)	+0:06.2 23:20.7 (3)
VYLEGZHANIN Maxim		+0:13.2 14:02.7 (11)	+0:04.2 10:56.0 (3)	+0:06.0 10:01.3 (3)
BAUER Lukas		+0:03.5 13:53.0 (4)	+0:12.1 11:03.9 (9)	+0:17.2 10:12.5 (14)	+0:01.7 23:16.2 (2)
RICKARDSSON Daniel		+0:37.5 14:27.0 (29)	+0:13.9 11:05.7 (11)	+0:14.4 10:09.7 (11)	+0:00.0 23:14.5 (1)
TEICHMANN Axel		+0:06.0 13:55.5 (6)		+0:10.4 10:05.7 (5)	+0:13.4 23:27.9 (4)
JAPAROV Dmitriy		+0:09.5 13:59.0 (7)
HEIKKINEN Matti		+0:26.6 14:16.1 (22)	+0:11.9 11:03.7 (8)	+0:20.8 10:16.1 (22)	+0:28.5 23:43.1 (6)
TURYSHEV Sergey		+0:10.1 13:59.6 (9)
PASINI Fabio		+0:12.3 14:01.8 (10)			+1:05.4 24:19.9 (29)
DI CENTA Giorgio		+0:20.0 14:09.5 (16)	+0:30.5 11:22.3 (27)	+0:30.7 10:26.0 (34)	+0:31.5 23:46.1 (7)
FILBRICH Jens		+0:18.4 14:07.9 (15)	+0:34.1 11:25.9 (31)		+0:46.4 24:00.9 (10)
BESSMERTNYKH Alexander		+0:17.5 14:07.0 (14)
GAILLARD Jean Marc		+0:31.0 14:20.5 (26)	+0:21.7 11:13.5 (15)	+0:12.5 10:07.8 (9)	+0:53.3 24:07.8 (15)
JOENSSON Emil		+0:47.2 14:36.7 (42)	+0:12.2 11:04.0 (10)	+0:18.9 10:14.2 (18)
HELLNER Marcus		+0:51.1 14:40.6 (48)		+0:11.9 10:07.2 (7)	+0:25.5 23:40.0 (5)
HARVEY Alex		+0:37.5 14:27.0 (29)	+0:28.2 11:20.0 (25)	+0:20.2 10:15.5 (21)	+0:42.4 23:56.9 (9)
ANGERER Tobias		+0:56.3 14:45.8 (56)	+0:30.6 11:22.4 (28)	+0:15.2 10:10.5 (12)
OLSSON Johan				+0:13.2 10:08.5 (10)

Women starters – historical results

Name		2012 Toblach 2012-01-03 3 km C	2011 Falun 2011-03-18 2.5 km C	2010 Falun 2010-03-19 2.5 km C Prologue	2010 Cortina – Toblach 2010-01-07 5 km C
KOWALCZYK Justyna		+0:03.8 10:53.1 (2)	+0:10.6 9:12.2 (2)	+0:00.0 8:07.9 (1)	+0:00.0 12:37.6 (1)
JACOBSEN Astrid Uhrenholdt		+0:15.0 11:04.3 (3)	+0:26.1 9:27.8 (9)
JOHAUG Therese		+0:21.1 11:10.4 (6)	+0:12.9 9:14.5 (3)	+0:57.3 9:05.2 (28)	+1:09.4 13:47.0 (29)
FESSEL Nicole		+0:17.0 11:06.2 (4)	+0:24.5 9:26.1 (6)
BOEHLER Stefanie		+0:17.1 11:06.4 (5)	+0:54.5 9:56.1 (30)	+0:38.3 8:46.2 (15)
SAARINEN Aino- Kaisa		+0:33.0 11:22.3 (15)	+0:26.5 9:28.1 (11)	+0:32.6 8:40.5 (9)	+0:11.6 12:49.2 (2)
HAAG Anna		+0:38.0 11:27.2 (23)	+0:17.4 9:19.0 (4)	+0:28.9 8:36.8 (5)
KALLA Charlotte		+0:34.0 11:23.2 (17)	+0:25.6 9:27.3 (8)	+0:16.9 8:24.8 (3)
KRISTOFFERSEN Marthe		+0:25.0 11:14.2 (9)	+0:28.1 9:29.7 (12)	+2:12.4 10:20.3 (47)	+0:35.4 13:13.0 (8)
LAHTEENMAKI Krista		+0:23.1 11:12.4 (7)	+0:41.4 9:43.0 (18)
ZELLER Katrin		+0:30.0 11:19.3 (12)	+0:26.3 9:27.9 (10)	+0:47.4 8:55.3 (21)	+0:36.9 13:14.5 (9)
SMUTNA Katerina		+0:23.9 11:13.1 (8)	+0:55.0 9:56.6 (32)	+0:41.8 8:49.7 (19)	+0:57.5 13:35.1 (23)
DOTSENKO Anastasia		+0:26.3 11:15.5 (10)	+0:48.9 9:50.5 (23)
STEIRA Kristin Stoermer		+0:38.6 11:27.9 (24)	+0:35.3 9:36.9 (14)	+0:52.7 9:00.6 (26)	+0:25.6 13:03.2 (4)
NISKANEN Kerttu		+0:33.4 11:22.6 (16)	+0:36.1 9:37.7 (16)	+0:36.5 8:44.4 (12)
MEDVEDEVA Polina		+0:27.4 11:16.6 (11)
HERRMANN Denise		+0:30.4 11:19.6 (13)	+1:27.6 10:29.3 (52)
ROPONEN Riitta-Liisa		+0:34.4 11:23.6 (18)		+0:34.0 8:41.9 (10)	+0:42.1 13:19.8 (14)
KOROSTELEVA Natalia		+0:34.4 11:23.6 (18)		+0:51.5 8:59.4 (23)
IVANOVA Julia		+0:34.4 11:23.6 (18)	+0:57.9 9:59.5 (35)
KYLLOENEN Anne		+0:35.9 11:25.1 (22)	+0:50.5 9:52.1 (25)
DE MARTIN TOPRANIN Virginia		+0:34.8 11:24.0 (21)
TCHEKALEVA Yulia			+0:43.9 9:45.5 (21)		+0:29.6 13:07.2 (7)
RANDALL Kikkan		+0:43.0 11:32.2 (29)	+0:41.6 9:43.3 (19)	+1:08.2 9:16.1 (36)
OESTBERG Ingvild Flugstad		+0:41.0 11:30.2 (25)	+0:53.8 9:55.4 (29)	+1:45.2 9:53.1 (46)
SHEVCHENKO Valentina		+1:02.1 11:51.4 (39)	+0:51.8 9:53.4 (26)	+0:52.4 9:00.3 (25)	+1:01.0 13:38.6 (24)
LINDBORG Sara			+0:51.8 9:53.4 (26)		+0:52.9 13:30.5 (20)

Thanks to a fantastic race by Swedish Charlotte Kalla, the women’s 15 km race in Toblach got a lot more interesting than expected. Justyna Kowalczyk was beat by 1:15 by the fast Swede today – and now the overall Tour de Ski in the women’s class looks wide open with 4 skiers within a little more than 30 seconds.

Kowalczyk’s lead is now reduced to 23 seconds – It looks like this will be the most interesting Tour de Ski so far in the women’s class

As you can see from the illustration, Kalla (green curve from the start – then below Steira’s black curve from 5.7 km) was faster than Kowalczyk on all splits. Steira on the other hand had a bad start, but when Kalla came around 5 km, she managed to keep up with the fast Swedish skier all the way until the end. Towards the end of the race they also caught up with Therese Johaug. All three finished within 20 seconds of Justyna Kowalczyk – due to bonus seconds (15 / 10 / 5 to the first three) Kowalczyk’s lead is now reduced to 23 seconds – It looks like this will be the most interesting Tour de Ski so far in the women’s class.

Another locomotive: Astrid Uhrenholdt Jacobsen

Behind this trio, Astrid Uhrenholdt Jacobsen raced very well. Starting only a few seconds behind Kalla, she did not manage to catch her from the start. Instead she caught up Kyllönen, Herrmann and Randall – and with Jacobsen in front the quartet managed to get well within one minute behind Kowalczyk. The race time of Jacobsen was only around 20 seconds down on Kalla in the end.

With this everything is open in the women’s class again!

• Overall Tour standings

Split 1

1.	01:42		Denise HERRMANN	GER
2.	01:44	+00:02	Katrin ZELLER	GER
3.	01:46	+00:03	Sandra RINGWALD	GER
4.	01:46	+00:04	Krista LAHTEENMAKI	FIN
5.	01:47	+00:04	Charlotte KALLA	SWE
6.	01:47	+00:04	Kristin Stoermer STEIRA	NOR
7.	01:47	+00:04	Therese JOHAUG	NOR
8.	01:47	+00:04	Jennie OEBERG	SWE
9.	01:47	+00:05	Anna HAAG	SWE
10.	01:48	+00:05	Anouk FAIVRE PICON	FRA
11.	01:48	+00:06	Astrid Uhrenholdt JACOBSEN	NOR
15.	01:48	+00:06	Emma WIKEN	SWE
28.	01:50	+00:08	Anne KYLLOENEN	FIN
31.	01:51	+00:08	Yulia TCHEKALEVA	RUS

Split 2

1.	02:52		Charlotte KALLA	SWE
2.	02:52	+00:01	Elizabeth STEPHEN	USA
3.	02:53	+00:01	Katrin ZELLER	GER
4.	02:53	+00:01	Valentina SHEVCHENKO	UKR
5.	02:53	+00:02	Katerina SMUTNA	AUT
6.	02:54	+00:02	Astrid Uhrenholdt JACOBSEN	NOR
7.	02:54	+00:02	Justyna KOWALCZYK	POL
8.	02:54	+00:03	Eva VRABCOVA – NYVLTOVA	CZE
9.	02:54	+00:03	Kornelia KUBINSKA	POL
10.	02:54	+00:03	Anouk FAIVRE PICON	FRA
11.	02:54	+00:03	Anna HAAG	SWE
15.	02:55	+00:04	Emma WIKEN	SWE
19.	02:56	+00:04	Yulia TCHEKALEVA	RUS
38.	02:59	+00:07	Anne KYLLOENEN	FIN

Split 3

1.	08:29		Charlotte KALLA	SWE
2.	08:29	+00:01	Astrid Uhrenholdt JACOBSEN	NOR
3.	08:30	+00:02	Emma WIKEN	SWE
4.	08:31	+00:02	Katerina SMUTNA	AUT
5.	08:31	+00:02	Katrin ZELLER	GER
6.	08:31	+00:02	Anne KYLLOENEN	FIN
7.	08:32	+00:03	Yulia TCHEKALEVA	RUS
8.	08:35	+00:06	Valentina SHEVCHENKO	UKR
9.	08:36	+00:08	Jessica DIGGINS	USA
10.	08:37	+00:08	Marthe KRISTOFFERSEN	NOR
11.	08:38	+00:09	Heidi WENG	NOR

Split 4

1.	02:54		Kristin Stoermer STEIRA	NOR
2.	02:54	+00:00	Charlotte KALLA	SWE
3.	02:55	+00:02	Denise HERRMANN	GER
4.	02:58	+00:04	Emma WIKEN	SWE
5.	02:58	+00:04	Katrin ZELLER	GER
6.	02:58	+00:04	Anne KYLLOENEN	FIN
7.	02:58	+00:05	Kikkan RANDALL	USA
8.	02:59	+00:05	Astrid Uhrenholdt JACOBSEN	NOR
9.	02:59	+00:05	Justyna KOWALCZYK	POL
10.	02:59	+00:05	Katerina SMUTNA	AUT
11.	03:00	+00:07	Therese JOHAUG	NOR
13.	03:01	+00:08	Yulia TCHEKALEVA	RUS

Split 5

1.	08:31		Yulia TCHEKALEVA	RUS
2.	08:34	+00:03	Katrin ZELLER	GER
3.	08:35	+00:05	Emma WIKEN	SWE
4.	08:41	+00:11	Anne KYLLOENEN	FIN
5.	08:42	+00:11	Jessica DIGGINS	USA
6.	08:42	+00:12	Astrid Uhrenholdt JACOBSEN	NOR
7.	08:43	+00:12	Kristin Stoermer STEIRA	NOR
8.	08:43	+00:12	Charlotte KALLA	SWE
9.	08:43	+00:13	Kikkan RANDALL	USA
10.	08:44	+00:14	Valentina SHEVCHENKO	UKR
11.	08:46	+00:15	Katerina SMUTNA	AUT

Split 6

1.	02:57		Charlotte KALLA	SWE
2.	02:57	+00:00	Kristin Stoermer STEIRA	NOR
3.	02:59	+00:03	Yulia TCHEKALEVA	RUS
4.	03:00	+00:03	Riitta-Liisa ROPONEN	FIN
5.	03:00	+00:04	Katrin ZELLER	GER
6.	03:01	+00:04	Krista LAHTEENMAKI	FIN
7.	03:01	+00:05	Heidi WENG	NOR
8.	03:01	+00:05	Justyna KOWALCZYK	POL
9.	03:02	+00:05	Astrid Uhrenholdt JACOBSEN	NOR
10.	03:02	+00:05	Emma WIKEN	SWE
11.	03:02	+00:05	Kikkan RANDALL	USA
13.	03:02	+00:06	Anne KYLLOENEN	FIN

Split 7

1.	08:18		Krista LAHTEENMAKI	FIN
2.	08:19	+00:01	Emma WIKEN	SWE
3.	08:21	+00:03	Heidi WENG	NOR
4.	08:22	+00:03	Katrin ZELLER	GER
5.	08:22	+00:04	Charlotte KALLA	SWE
6.	08:22	+00:04	Riitta-Liisa ROPONEN	FIN
7.	08:22	+00:04	Kristin Stoermer STEIRA	NOR
8.	08:26	+00:08	Jessica DIGGINS	USA
9.	08:27	+00:09	Denise HERRMANN	GER
10.	08:28	+00:10	Anne KYLLOENEN	FIN
11.	08:28	+00:10	Therese JOHAUG	NOR
14.	08:30	+00:12	Astrid Uhrenholdt JACOBSEN	NOR
22.	08:36	+00:18	Yulia TCHEKALEVA	RUS

Everybody knew that there would be several big fields racing from Cortina to Toblach in today’s Tour de Ski Queen stage from Cortina to Toblach – the question was who would make it into which group. In the end the top 24 skiers raced most of the stage in three big fields. The graphical analysis above shows the development from start until finish.

Legkov on the other hand proved to have a very good day today

As expected, Alexander Legkov (Russia) and Alex Harvey (Canada) raced full speed from the start to try to catch up with Maxim Vylegzhanin (Russia), Dario Cologna (Switzerland) and Petter Northug (Norway). Already after a few kilometers skiing, Legkov/Harvey managed to catch up after a strong effort by Legkov – but had it cost too much?

Unfortunately for Harvey, it had – and he fell off the top quartet. Legkov on the other hand proved to have a very good day today – and managed to keep up with Vylegzhanin/Northug/Cologna all the way until the end.

- I knew Legkov would catch us – that is his way of racing. He raced hard until he caught us. Myself I did not get a good rhythm the first 5 km, but after that it went well, Northug said after the race.

Slowed down

The leading group slowed down the last kilometers – letting the other groups catch up some time. Northug won the sprint on the homestretch ahead of Legkov 0.7 seconds behind, and Cologna in third was 0.9 seconds back. With 15 / 10 / 5 bonus seconds to the top 3, Northug will have a +5.7 second lead going into tomorrow’s 5 km short classic race.

- In Oberhof I was at 80 percent, in Val Müstair 90 percent, and today 100 percent, a happy Northug said after his win.

The Cortina-Toblach stage is the stage were Northug has effectively lost the Tour de Ski the last two years. Northug now goes into the last three stages with a lot of self confidence after the win today.

24 skiers within 2:15

Harvey on the other hand was caught by the Chernousov/Bauer/Hellner group – turning the trio into another quartet around 15 km into the race. This group gradually lost time to the leading quartet, finishing 1:25 behind the leaders (1:40 including bonus seconds).

According to Sweden’s coach Arild Monsen, Marcus Hellner did all the work in this quartet.

- The others did not help Marcus at all. Don’t they want to get closer to the lead, or what was this? And even after that, they sprinted in the end, Monsen said to Sweski.com.

- We had a deal with Bauer, and he did not help at all, a furious Monsen commented.

The rest of the skiers did not make the cut into the first two groups – and 16 of them gathered into a big group – racing very fast in the last 7-8 km of the race. In the end this group finished only 20 seconds behind the Chernousov/Bauer/Hellner/Harvey group. Thus now we have 24 skiers within 2:15 in the overall.

• Overall Tour standings

Set up your predictions for the remaining stages

Set up your predictions and see results here:

• #1: Results Tour de Ski Prologue, 3/4 km Free, Oberhof
• #2: Results Tour de Ski Stage 2, 9/15 km Pursuit Classic, Oberhof
• #3:Results Tour de Ski Stage 3, Sprint Free, Val Mustair, Tschierv
• #4: Tour de Ski Stage 4, 35/15 km Pursuit Free, Toblach/Cortina
• #5: Tour de Ski Stage 5, 3/5 km Classic, Toblach/Cortina
• #6: Tour de Ski Stage 6, 10/15 km Classic, Val di Fiemme
• #7: Tour de Ski Stage 7, Final climb (Individual times)
• Overall XC-Prediction results – Tour de Ski 2012/2013 – updated after each stage

Split 1

1.	13:59		Lukas BAUER	CZE
2.	14:00	+00:00	Marcus HELLNER	SWE
3.	14:00	+00:01	Daniel RICHARDSSON	SWE
4.	14:01	+00:02	Alexander LEGKOV	RUS
5.	14:04	+00:05	Roland CLARA	ITA
6.	14:04	+00:05	Alex HARVEY	CAN
7.	14:09	+00:10	Tord Asle GJERDALEN	NOR
8.	14:10	+00:10	Remo FISCHER	SUI
9.	14:10	+00:11	Tobias ANGERER	GER
10.	14:11	+00:12	Michail SEMENOV	BLR
11.	14:12	+00:13	Alexander BESSMERTNYKH	RUS
12.	14:12	+00:13	Devon KERSHAW	CAN
28.	14:23	+00:24	Giorgio DI CENTA	ITA

Split 2

1.	16:49		Daniel RICHARDSSON	SWE
2.	16:51	+00:02	Tobias ANGERER	GER
3.	16:53	+00:04	Giorgio DI CENTA	ITA
4.	16:57	+00:08	Alexander BESSMERTNYKH	RUS
5.	16:59	+00:11	Roland CLARA	ITA
6.	17:00	+00:11	Petter jr. NORTHUG	NOR
7.	17:00	+00:11	Johannes DUERR	AUT
8.	17:01	+00:12	Thomas MORIGGL	ITA
9.	17:01	+00:12	Alexander LEGKOV	RUS
10.	17:01	+00:12	Maxim VYLEGZHANIN	RUS
11.	17:02	+00:13	Dario COLOGNA	SUI
18.	17:12	+00:23	Tord Asle GJERDALEN	NOR
19.	17:12	+00:23	Devon KERSHAW	CAN

Split 3

1.	08:00		Jean Marc GAILLARD	FRA
2.	08:04	+00:04	Remo FISCHER	SUI
3.	08:07	+00:08	Valerio CHECCHI	ITA
4.	08:09	+00:09	Johannes DUERR	AUT
5.	08:18	+00:18	Maxim VYLEGZHANIN	RUS
6.	08:18	+00:19	Petter jr. NORTHUG	NOR
7.	08:19	+00:19	Tobias ANGERER	GER
8.	08:19	+00:20	Alexander LEGKOV	RUS
9.	08:19	+00:20	Curdin PERL	SUI
10.	08:20	+00:20	Dario COLOGNA	SUI
11.	08:20	+00:20	Tord Asle GJERDALEN	NOR
13.	08:20	+00:21	Devon KERSHAW	CAN
16.	08:20	+00:21	Alexander BESSMERTNYKH	RUS
18.	08:20	+00:21	Giorgio DI CENTA	ITA
28.	08:27	+00:28	Daniel RICHARDSSON	SWE

Split 4

1.	11:35		Dario COLOGNA	SUI
2.	11:37	+00:01	Alexander LEGKOV	RUS
3.	11:37	+00:02	Petter jr. NORTHUG	NOR
4.	11:38	+00:02	Maxim VYLEGZHANIN	RUS
5.	11:38	+00:03	Calle HALFVARSSON	SWE
6.	11:41	+00:06	Devon KERSHAW	CAN
7.	11:41	+00:06	Len VALJAS	CAN
8.	11:42	+00:07	Sergey TURYSHEV	RUS
9.	11:42	+00:07	Daniel RICHARDSSON	SWE
10.	11:43	+00:08	Jens FILBRICH	GER
11.	11:44	+00:08	Ivan BABIKOV	CAN
12.	11:44	+00:08	Tord Asle GJERDALEN	NOR
13.	11:44	+00:09	Alexander BESSMERTNYKH	RUS
15.	11:44	+00:09	Giorgio DI CENTA	ITA
24.	11:47	+00:12	Tobias ANGERER	GER

Split 5

1.	07:34		Maxim VYLEGZHANIN	RUS
2.	07:35	+00:01	Petter jr. NORTHUG	NOR
3.	07:35	+00:01	Alexander LEGKOV	RUS
4.	07:36	+00:02	Tobias ANGERER	GER
5.	07:37	+00:03	Dario COLOGNA	SUI
6.	07:37	+00:03	Len VALJAS	CAN
7.	07:39	+00:05	Michail SEMENOV	BLR
8.	07:39	+00:05	Dmitriy JAPAROV	RUS
9.	07:40	+00:06	Sergey TURYSHEV	RUS
10.	07:40	+00:06	Remo FISCHER	SUI
11.	07:40	+00:06	Ivan BABIKOV	CAN
16.	07:41	+00:07	Giorgio DI CENTA	ITA
17.	07:41	+00:07	Tord Asle GJERDALEN	NOR
19.	07:41	+00:07	Devon KERSHAW	CAN
21.	07:41	+00:07	Daniel RICHARDSSON	SWE
28.	07:42	+00:08	Alexander BESSMERTNYKH	RUS

Split 6

1.	10:01		Alexander BESSMERTNYKH	RUS
2.	10:02	+00:01	Tord Asle GJERDALEN	NOR
3.	10:04	+00:03	Dmitriy JAPAROV	RUS
4.	10:04	+00:03	Curdin PERL	SUI
5.	10:04	+00:03	Sergey TURYSHEV	RUS
6.	10:04	+00:03	Johan OLSSON	SWE
7.	10:04	+00:03	Alexey POLTORANIN	KAZ
8.	10:04	+00:03	Daniel RICHARDSSON	SWE
9.	10:05	+00:04	Finn Haagen KROGH	NOR
10.	10:05	+00:04	Giorgio DI CENTA	ITA
11.	10:06	+00:04	Ivan BABIKOV	CAN
13.	10:06	+00:05	Devon KERSHAW	CAN
15.	10:07	+00:06	Tobias ANGERER	GER

Split 7

1.	03:49		Ivan BABIKOV	CAN
2.	03:50	+00:01	Tord Asle GJERDALEN	NOR
3.	03:50	+00:01	Alexander BESSMERTNYKH	RUS
4.	03:50	+00:01	Devon KERSHAW	CAN
5.	03:51	+00:02	Curdin PERL	SUI
6.	03:51	+00:02	Jens FILBRICH	GER
7.	03:51	+00:02	Daniel RICHARDSSON	SWE
8.	03:51	+00:02	Johan OLSSON	SWE
9.	03:51	+00:02	Dmitriy JAPAROV	RUS
10.	03:52	+00:02	Alexey POLTORANIN	KAZ
11.	03:52	+00:02	Giorgio DI CENTA	ITA
12.	03:52	+00:03	Tobias ANGERER	GER

Split 8

1.	02:44		Ales RAZYM	CZE
2.	02:46	+00:02	Dietmar NOECKLER	ITA
3.	02:46	+00:02	Thomas MORIGGL	ITA
4.	02:47	+00:03	Giorgio DI CENTA	ITA
5.	02:47	+00:03	Valerio CHECCHI	ITA
6.	02:47	+00:03	Andreas KATZ	GER
7.	02:47	+00:03	Daniel RICHARDSSON	SWE
8.	02:47	+00:03	Jens FILBRICH	GER
9.	02:47	+00:03	Nikolay CHEBOTKO	KAZ
10.	02:47	+00:03	Finn Haagen KROGH	NOR
11.	02:47	+00:03	Remo FISCHER	SUI
12.	02:47	+00:03	Tobias ANGERER	GER
19.	02:48	+00:04	Devon KERSHAW	CAN
20.	02:48	+00:04	Alexander BESSMERTNYKH	RUS
28.	02:51	+00:07	Tord Asle GJERDALEN	NOR

The long stage from Cortina to Toblach in the men’s class is the Queen stage of Tour de Ski – with more than 30 kilometers of skating on an A-to-B course, this stage can shake up the overall standings considerably like it did the last years.  This will be like Christmas Eve for Cross Country skiing fans!

• Set up predictions for Tour de Ski Stage 4, Cortina/Toblach, before the men’s start at January 3rd 12:15 CET

The women will “only” race 15 km on a 5 km course which is skied 3 times. Less drama is expected here, although it will be interesting to see if the pack can gain some time on the “impossible” Kowalczyk racing alone at the front. Skating is not the strongest discipline of the Polish Tour leader – and the followers will surely cooperate well with two Norwegians among them.

The Russians versus Cologna and Northug

As we have seen in previous editions of Tour de Ski, if there is no cooperation at the front  of the field, more and more skiers can come up from behind

Cologna has decided the Tour at the Cortina-Toblach stage the two last years by arriving alone in Toblach more than a minute ahead of the closest follower – but this is not a likely scenario this year. Instead, the main question ahead of this year’s Queen stage is: How big will the leading group become – and will the group manage to cooperate? Five skiers start within 30 seconds, and nobody will be surprised if they get together at an early stage in the race.  It looks like the main fight this year will be between the Russian duo Vylegzhanin (starting first)/Legkov (+28 seconds), the Swiss Tour de Ski specialist Dario Cologna (+ 2 seconds) and the Norwegian Petter Northug (+ 9 seconds). Canadian Devon Kershaw Harvey (+27 seconds) also has a perfect starting position and will be up there fighting for a top result.

However, as we have seen in previous editions of Tour de Ski, if there is no cooperation at the front  of the field, more and more skiers can come up from behind. Northug has stated several times ahead of the Tour that he will not help keeping up the speed on the Cortina-Toblach stage. If he follows this plan, the others might not just want to give him a free ride. With Russian Ilia Chernousov starting only 24 seconds behind Legkov, a Russian trio in the leading group is a possibility depending on how the tactics are played up at the front.

Going another 33 seconds down on the start list, we come to the “big pack” – with last year’s fastest skier on this stage Marcus Hellner and the strong Czech Lukas Bauer at the head of the field. Too little cooperation at the front, and anything is possible. Big groups who cooperate well can go very fast on this type of stages – but how will the groups form? Here is the complete startlist / tour standings.

Dario Cologna – Photo WorldofXC.com

2011/2012: Awesome Cologna – three big groups

Petter Northug started the day 13.5 seconds behind Dario Cologna. Northug started out fast and caught Cologna after a few kilometers. The Norwegian was however punished for his tough start, and lost more than a minute to Cologna while waiting out Legkov (RUS). Behind Northug and Legkov the strongest group of the day was formed – the trio Hellner (SWE), Manificat (FRA) and Kershaw (CAN) – all three starting more than 2 minutes behind Cologna. They steadily gained time on Cologna until they caught Northug and Legkov around 20 km – having caught up with more than a minute at that time. Then they slowed down to the speed of Northug/Legkov, and the group finished down 1:16 from Cologna. If the group had not stopped cooperating when catching Northug/Legkov, they would probably have managed to gain even more time on Cologna. Marcus Hellner and Maurice Manificat – the two fastest skiers of the day – both gained around 1:30 on Cologna in the end.

Interesting fact: No single skiers except for Cologna survived on their own their own throughout the race. The rest of the skiers fighting in the top packed themselves into only three big groups.

Illustration Tour de Ski 2011/2012: Splitsbrowser where comparison is done to Dario Cologna. A line which is flat means the same time as Cologna. A line which goes down represents slower speed – a line which goes up represents faster speed. You can see where the grouping occured by observing where the lines get together.

2010/2011: Large group – no cooperation in the end

Looking back to the 2010/2011 edition of Tour de Ski, all skiers in the Top 30 except for Dario Cologna (SUI) and Marcus Hellner (SWE) in the lead got sucked up by three big groups (see article including graphical illustration here). The biggest group which Petter Northug (NOR) was part of gained time on Cologna throughout most of the race – gaining nearly 45 seconds from 7 km up to 27 km. However, the group had problems cooperating in the last part of the downhill down to Toblach, loosing more than half of what they had worked hard on gaining in the first part of the race. When the group got too big, the skiers did not manage to cooperate anymore.

Illustration Tour de Ski 2010/2011: Splitsbrowser where comparison is again done against Dario Cologna. Note that the starting split not correct due to the way the time keeping is reported.

2009/2010: Group of six from the start

In the 2009/2010 edition, there was just over 16 seconds separating the top five Hellner (SWE), Østensen (NOR), Northug, Cologna and Teichmann (GER) at the start. Østensen was dropped early, and Heikkinen (FIN) and Gaillard (FRA) caught up with the remaining four after 15km. The leading six became five as they approached the town of Toblach where Teichmann fell off the pace. In the end Northug won the finish sprint ahead of Cologna and Hellner.

Women: Strong field chasing Kowalczyk

Kowalczyk has, however, shown some weakness in skating recently, and this might very well make this race a lot more interesting than it looks at first sight

In the women’s race the fight is clear: Kowalczyk against the rest. If this race would have been races in classic style, the followers would have had a nearly impossible job. Kowalczyk has, however, shown some weakness in skating recently, and this might very well make this race a lot more interesting than it looks at first sight.

Behind Kowalczyk the two Norwegians Therese Johaug (at +50 seconds) and Kristin Størmer Steira (at + 1:00) will probably try to cooperate closely to gain time on Kowalczyk .  Last year Johaug started in a vacuum and had to race all of the 15 km alone whereas the duo Kowalczyk/Bjørgen fought together at the front. This resulted in Johaug loosing 50 seconds to the top duo – and with that any chance to win the overall Tour 2011/2012. Can Johaug exploit her advantage this year?

It is not only about the Norwegians and Kowalczyk, though. Denise Herrmann (Germany) starts only 5 seconds behind Størmer Steira and will try to join in on the chase. Kikkan Randall (at +1:18, USA), Anne Kyllönen (at 1:29, Finland) and Charlotte Kalla (at 1:32, Sweden) are probably too far behind in order to catch the two Norwegians. However, in a 9-day Tour one skier might suddenly have a super day while another has a bad day, so anything can happen… Here is the complete startlist / tour standings.

Set up your predictions

Set up your predictions and see results here:

• #1: Results Tour de Ski Prologue, 3/4 km Free, Oberhof
• #2: Results Tour de Ski Stage 2, 9/15 km Pursuit Classic, Oberhof
• #3:Results Tour de Ski Stage 3, Sprint Free, Val Mustair, Tschierv
• #4: Tour de Ski Stage 4, 35/15 km Pursuit Free, Toblach/Cortina
• #5: Tour de Ski Stage 5, 3/5 km Classic, Toblach/Cortina
• #6: Tour de Ski Stage 6, 10/15 km Classic, Val di Fiemme
• #7: Tour de Ski Stage 7, Final climb (Individual times)
• Overall XC-Prediction results – Tour de Ski 2012/2013 – updated after each stage

Justyna Kowalczyk – Photo WorldofXC.com

Johan has taken the lead in the overall Tour de Ski predictions after a 6th place in the Val Müstair sprint predictions. Best in the race today was Маша и Слоник. Congratulations!

Still tight in the top, and with 4 more races to go in addition to the overall nothing is yet decided. Full results from the sprint are available here – and overall Tour de Ski prediction results here.

Top 10: Tour de Ski 2012/2013 overall

Click the points in the table below in order to see the predictions for each of the races. Click the ‘x’ to see the predictions for the overall Tour de Ski.

Top 10 Val Müstair sprint

1. Маша и Слоник: 550 points
   

   1. JOENSSON Emil 40 points 2. NORTHUG Petter jr. 32 points 3. COLOGNA Dario 50 points 4. NEWELL Andrew 29 points 5. PELLEGRINO Federico 80 points

   1. RANDALL Kikkan 100 (+50) points 2. OESTBERG Ingvild Flugstad 80 (+30) points 3. KYLLOENEN Anne 5 points 4. VAN DER GRAAFF Laurien 22 points 5. HERRMANN Denise 32 points

2. AndersPe.: 540 points
   

   1. JOENSSON Emil 40 points 2. NORTHUG Petter jr. 32 points 3. HELLNER Marcus 36 points 4. VYLEGZHANIN Maxim 26 points 5. COLOGNA Dario 50 points

   1. RANDALL Kikkan 100 (+50) points 2. OESTBERG Ingvild Flugstad 80 (+30) points 3. KALLA Charlotte 40 points 4. JACOBSEN Astrid Uhrenholdt 20 points 5. KOWALCZYK Justyna 36 points

3. CMNT: 540 points
   

   1. JOENSSON Emil 40 points 2. NORTHUG Petter jr. 32 points 3. HARVEY Alex 22 points 4. NEWELL Andrew 29 points 5. PELLEGRINO Federico 80 points

   1. RANDALL Kikkan 100 (+50) points 2. OESTBERG Ingvild Flugstad 80 (+30) points 3. KYLLOENEN Anne 5 points 4. KALLA Charlotte 40 points 5. HERRMANN Denise 32 points

4. Anna F: 536 points
   

   1. COLOGNA Dario 50 points 2. JOENSSON Emil 40 points 3. NORTHUG Petter jr. 32 points 4. VYLEGZHANIN Maxim 26 points 5. HELLNER Marcus 36 points

   1. RANDALL Kikkan 100 (+50) points 2. OESTBERG Ingvild Flugstad 80 (+30) points 3. HERRMANN Denise 32 points 4. JACOBSEN Astrid Uhrenholdt 20 points 5. KALLA Charlotte 40 points

5. AORler: 534 points
   

   1. JOENSSON Emil 40 points 2. COLOGNA Dario 50 points 3. NORTHUG Petter jr. 32 points 4. NEWELL Andrew 29 points 5. PELLEGRINO Federico 80 points

   1. RANDALL Kikkan 100 (+50) points 2. KOWALCZYK Justyna 36 points 3. KYLLOENEN Anne 5 points 4. OESTBERG Ingvild Flugstad 80 points 5. HERRMANN Denise 32 points

6. Johan: 532 points
   

   1. NORTHUG Petter jr. 32 points 2. JOENSSON Emil 40 points 3. COLOGNA Dario 50 points 4. HARVEY Alex 22 points 5. HELLNER Marcus 36 points

   1. RANDALL Kikkan 100 (+50) points 2. OESTBERG Ingvild Flugstad 80 (+30) points 3. HERRMANN Denise 32 points 4. JACOBSEN Astrid Uhrenholdt 20 points 5. KALLA Charlotte 40 points

7. Rolf Z: 528 points
   

   1. JOENSSON Emil 40 points 2. COLOGNA Dario 50 points 3. NORTHUG Petter jr. 32 points 4. HARVEY Alex 22 points 5. CHERNOUSOV Ilia 18 points

   1. RANDALL Kikkan 100 (+50) points 2. OESTBERG Ingvild Flugstad 80 (+30) points 3. KOWALCZYK Justyna 36 points 4. JACOBSEN Astrid Uhrenholdt 20 points 5. KOLB Hanna 50 points

8. Davide Bragagna: 528 points
   

   1. JOENSSON Emil 40 points 2. NORTHUG Petter jr. 32 points 3. HELLNER Marcus 36 points 4. COLOGNA Dario 50 (+10) points 5. PELLEGRINO Federico 80 points

   1. RANDALL Kikkan 100 (+50) points 2. HERRMANN Denise 32 points 3. KALLA Charlotte 40 points 4. KOWALCZYK Justyna 36 points 5. VAN DER GRAAFF Laurien 22 points

9. Roberto Dallavalle: 527 points
   

   1. JOENSSON Emil 40 points 2. NORTHUG Petter jr. 32 points 3. COLOGNA Dario 50 points 4. PELLEGRINO Federico 80 points 5. HARVEY Alex 22 points

   1. RANDALL Kikkan 100 (+50) points 2. HERRMANN Denise 32 points 3. KYLLOENEN Anne 5 points 4. OESTBERG Ingvild Flugstad 80 points 5. KOWALCZYK Justyna 36 points

10. Hanna: 525 points
    

    1. JOENSSON Emil 40 points 2. NORTHUG Petter jr. 32 points 3. HELLNER Marcus 36 points 4. HARVEY Alex 22 points 5. COLOGNA Dario 50 points

    1. RANDALL Kikkan 100 (+50) points 2. WENG Heidi 60 points 3. KALLA Charlotte 40 points 4. OESTBERG Ingvild Flugstad 80 points 5. FABJAN Vesna 15 points

The 2012/2013 edition of Tour de Ski has only one sprint race on the program – the skating sprint in the new Tour location Val Müstair in Switzerland.  Thus few of the sprint specialists have chosen to start in the Tour, leaving the table mostly open to the all rounders.

• Set up predictions for Tour de Ski Stage 3, Sprint Free, Val Mustair, Tschierv before the qual start at January 1st 14:00 CET

This stage is a key stage for the overall Tour – especially in the men’s class as it will lay the foundation for the 35 km long Cortina-Toblach stage. History has shown that it is not important to be among the very first ahead of the Cortina-Toblach stage – but if you are too far down on the start list to get into the fast groups on this long, tough stage, the tour may very well be lost.

Men: Cologna on home ground?

Also look out for overall Tour leader Maxim Vylegzhanin who has some good results from earlier Tour skating sprints

With most sprint specialists – including last year’s winner in the Tour’s skating sprint Nikolay Morilov –  not on the start list, Emil Jönsson is probably the biggest favourite in the men’s class. However, Jönsson did not succeed in the corresponding sprint in Toblach last year (finishing 8th) – instead Petter Northug finished 2nd and Dario Cologna 3rd.

In the 2010/2011 edition of Tour de Ski, Devon Kershaw took the victory in the Toblach sprint after two of the big sprinters Jönsson and Petukhov had pulled out of the Tour.  Kershaw only narrowly sneaked into the final, taking the second lucky loser spot, but then impressed in the final with by getting a 20 meters gap up the last hill. Again Northug and Cologna took the next two places on the podium – but this time Cologna was the fastest of the duo.

Cologna on home ground for the first time in the Tour de Ski history will be especially motivated to take out the maximum in the Val Müstair sprint – but Northug will not let the Swiss beat him easily. Also look out for overall Tour leader Maxim Vylegzhanin who has some good results from earlier Tour skating sprints. Outsiders are Swedish Marcus Hellner and the Canadians  Harvey and Kershaw.

Note also that the course has an uphill finish – being an advantage for the all rounders rather than the pure sprint specialists.

Dario Cologna – Photo WorldofXC.com

Maxim Vylegzhanin – Photo WorldofXC.com

Women: Randall again?

Kowalczyk has had a weak point in skating sprints in the Tour previously

In the women’s class, Kikkan Randall is the big favourite after strong performance in the sprints in Canada. Kowalczyk has had a weak point in skating sprints in the Tour previously – before last year’s third place she was out of the Top 10 three times in a row. Still, Kowalczyk is definitely among the favourites in Val Müstair. Also count in Denise Herrmann from Germany – surprisingly on a strong 4th place overall after 2 stages – with 4th places from last years skating sprint in Toblach and good sprint results from the Canada World Cup round.

Outsiders are Finland’s new star Anne Kyllönen, Swiss Laurien Van der Graff and Norway’s Ingvild Flugstad Østberg who also did very well in Canada. And maybe the 2010 Tour de Ski skating sprint winner Natalia Korosteleva can find back to her old shape? Her 6th place in the Quebec skating sprint pointed in the right direction…  Charlotte Kalla and Astrid Uhrenholdt Jacobsen are both big question marks – they have both shown good results in the discipline in the past, but not lately…

In the overall, Kowalczyk will get another big step closer to overall victory if she does not fail in the Val Müstair sprint. To get excitement into the women’s class, a strong chasing group is needed in the Toblach pursuit race. That means that Norway’s big star Therese Johaug should get some  bonus points out of the sprint – a group with Johaug, Herrmann, Kyllönen and Jacobsen would maybe be able to get some seconds off Kowalczyk…?

Kikkan Randall – photo WorldofXC.com

Set up your predictions

Set up your predictions and see results here:

• #1: Results Tour de Ski Prologue, 3/4 km Free, Oberhof
• #2: Results Tour de Ski Stage 2, 9/15 km Pursuit Classic, Oberhof
• #3: Tour de Ski Stage 3, Sprint Free, Val Mustair, Tschierv
• #4: Tour de Ski Stage 4, 35/15 km Pursuit Free, Toblach/Cortina
• #5: Tour de Ski Stage 5, 3/5 km Classic, Toblach/Cortina
• #6: Tour de Ski Stage 6, 10/15 km Classic, Val di Fiemme
• #7: Tour de Ski Stage 7, Final climb (Individual times)
• Overall XC-Prediction results – Tour de Ski 2012/2013 – updated after each stage

Race profile

Women – historical results

Name		2012 Canmore 2012-12-15 SP F Final	2012 Quebec 2012-12-08 SP F Final	2012 Toblach 2012-01-04 SP F Final	2011 Toblach 2011-01-05 SP F Final	2010 Prag 2010-01-04 SP 1.2 km F Final	2008 Prague 2008-12-29 SP 1.3 km F Final	2007 Prague 2007-12-30 SP 1 km F Final
RANDALL Kikkan		2nd	1st	2nd	5th
KOROSTELEVA Natalia		35th	6th	14th		1st		10th
KOWALCZYK Justyna		21st		3rd	22nd	19th	11th	6th
HERRMANN Denise		4th	9th	4th	17th	28th
OESTBERG Ingvild Flugstad		5th	4th	7th	31st
FABJAN Vesna		16th	26th	5th	9th	6th	9th	26th
KYLLOENEN Anne		12th	7th	20th	23rd
KRISTOFFERSEN Marthe				6th	15th	18th	5th
KOLB Hanna		17th	30th	8th
JEAN Aurore		18th		9th	27th
DOTSENKO Anastasia		15th	19th	16th
ZELLER Katrin		24th		19th	7th	47th	19th	19th
SAARINEN Aino- Kaisa				32nd	18th	5th	2nd	14th
KALLA Charlotte				11th	13th			16th
VAN DER GRAAFF Laurien		8th	31st
LAHTEENMAKI Krista				13th	14th
JACOBSEN Astrid Uhrenholdt				17th	21st	12th	20th
WENG Heidi				12th
ROPONEN Riitta-Liisa				24th	26th	11th	8th	12th
NISKANEN Kerttu				15th	33rd
HAAG Anna		38th		34th	12th		16th
FESSEL Nicole				26th		27th	14th
BOEHLER Stefanie		32nd		28th			13th	34th

Men – historical results

Name		2012 Canmore 2012-12-15 SP F Final	2012 Quebec 2012-12-08 SP F Final	2012 Toblach 2012-01-04 SP F Final	2011 Toblach 2011-01-05 SP F Final	2010 Prag 2010-01-04 SP 1.2 km F Final	2008 Prague 2008-12-29 SP 1.3 km F Final	2007 Prague 2007-12-30 SP 1 km F Final
JOENSSON Emil		1st	1st	8th		1st
NORTHUG Petter jr.				2nd	3rd	45th	7th	5th
KERSHAW Devon		50th	34th	13th	1st	21st	26th	27th
COLOGNA Dario				3rd	2nd	11th	8th	14th
NEWELL Andrew		5th	5th		8th	6th
HELLNER Marcus				21st	4th	2nd	21st	22nd
HOFER David		21st	29th	4th	9th	31st	34th
OESTENSEN Simen					5th	3rd		2nd
HARVEY Alex		52nd	21st	6th	14th	19th
PELLEGRINO Federico		6th	28th	28th
TRITSCHER Bernhard		12th	26th	17th	11th
CHEBOTKO Nikolay		39th	14th	12th		25th	22nd	26th
VALJAS Len		7th	46th
DARRAGON Roddy		20th	11th				9th	17th
JAKS Martin				16th	7th	61st		32nd
NOECKLER Dietmar				10th
CHERNOUSOV Ilia				11th		30th		56th
PASINI Fabio		37th	71st	14th		15th	41st
SCOLA Fulvio		54th	15th	32nd	22nd
DI CENTA Giorgio				18th	23rd	26th	11th	10th
PERL Curdin				26th	12th	31st	47th
RICKARDSSON Daniel				41st	10th	55th	44th	60th
VYLEGZHANIN Maxim				37th		7th	30th	6th
GAILLARD Jean Marc				60th	30th	16th	3rd	30th
GJERDALEN Tord Asle					15th	39th	12th	9th
MIRANDA Cyril				43rd	16th	41st	14th
RAZYM Ales						64th	13th

Sportsamuel has taken the lead in the overall Tour de Ski predictions after a shared 5th place in the Oberhof Pursuit predictions. Best in the pursuit race today was Kvikkjokk. Congratulations!

Still tight in the top, and with 5 more races to go in addition to the overall nothing is yet decided. Full results Oberhof Pursuit are available here – and overall Tour de Ski prediction results here.

Top 10: Tour de Ski 2012/2013 overall

Click the points in the table below in order to see the predictions for each of the races. Click the ‘x’ to see the predictions for the overall Tour de Ski.